$100 buy-in tournament, 40K guaranteed

200/300/300 (BB ante), 9500 effective
Villain is young middle-Eastern player, seems recreational. Has been playing relatively tight and straightforward post-flop- hasn't shown any bluffs yet. He covers me.

Hero with AJo in UTG+1
Hero opens to 700
Villain in MP2 calls
CO, SB, and BB all call

Flop (3500): J95r
Checks to Hero, who bets 1300
Villain raises to 2800
Folds to Hero?

I would push. his range after raise OTF looks like 55-JJ, QTs, T8s

Sounds like you should fold, especially if you say he's tight and straightforward. It's a pretty ****ty spot, but I think we're gonna be shown the goods too much of the time here. He's not doing this with KJ or QJ, so I'd say you're likely up against 2pair+ here.

Given that range, Hero is favored to win.

Board: Jc 9d 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.482% 66.48% 00.00% 231018 0.00 { AJo }
Hand 1: 33.518% 33.52% 00.00% 116472 0.00 { JJ-55, QTs, T8s }

However, given the description of villain: "playing relatively tight and straightforward post-flop", I doubt he would raise with TT, 88, 77, or 66. Taking those out:

Board: Jc 9d 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.732% 32.73% 00.00% 43746 0.00 { AJo }
Hand 1: 67.268% 67.27% 00.00% 89904 0.00 { JJ, 99, 55, QTs, T8s }

Villain is favored, adding QQ makes it worse.


Fold.

Exactomundo. You can throw in ties with other AJ I guess, but this range nails it down enough. We can add 2 combos of qk to simulate the few times he's ****ing with us with a gut shot or worst

QQ 3-bets preflop, so it can be excluded, or included with 25% weight. Ok, he would probably not raise with 66,77,88, but I can see raise with TT for protection.
Versus 55,99,TT,JJ, QTs, T8s it's a coin I think.

This gets back to my other thread, is it worth coin flipping for stacks in a tournament? I think no.

It depends a lot on the stage of the tournament. ITM a coin is the common scenario, on the bubble u don't want to get involved, far from the money - depends on the stack size, proximity of blinds up, reads on V, etc. In this specific spot if hero is certain that V is ABC, then a coin could be avoided

How has hero been playing on the table?

Are we limited to only shoving or folding in this spot? What's wrong with just calling and seeing a turn?

TAG, in fact this was my first limp.

Given V1's play and that V2's shove was just enough to open the door, I am sure V1 would have shoved.

SPR is like 1 : 1 if we call and we don't fold anyways.

Live tourney, straightforward player x/r in a multiway pot on a pretty dry board. Alarm bells. He's not doing this with a draw or underpair. Sometimes you just have to fold top pair.