Is this a call? The river is a total brick so I have the feeling it might be bad to call turn planning to fold on this river.
The guy should not have many flushes here. I have Js, and on this flop he cannot have most suited broadway. He should not have other suited hands beside broadways, unless he opens T9s but I doubt it because he is pretty shallow.
So he can only have ATs for the flush.
He has a lot of AsX on the turn though, and moreover he should have some OESD or gutshots with a spade.
His value range on the river should be AsTs, AA, AK, KQ, KK and QQ.
Should I call this river? He can definitely have bluffs and my hand blockers a lot of his value range.
I don’t call because I don’t think a good player would choose these sizings as bluff, if he had a hand like Ax with Ace of spades he would bet like 4K flop and jam turn rather than making 3 small bets
And if he’s not a good player I doubt he’s bluffing here too. Like leaving a half pot river jam is just like he is asking to be called
As played it's a fold. You can't expect to be ahead of him at this stage. Unless you have decided beforehand that he may have decided to 3-barrel this hand. But that's rare and you need some possible reads and table dynamic developments prior to this, to make that decision with some foundation. Going from his tight preflop and aggressive postflop stats, he could well be capable of doing so. But he could just as well have AK (or maybe As3, as the river bet is suddenly an Allin, and he was trying to keep the pot small but aggressive until then) and be hoping for you to call. Which this looks like.
Going from his stats he is sort of tight preflop and super aggressive post flop. The C-bet 83% tells you that you should be able to attack that with a x/r on the flop. As you paired up I think that line would give you a better idea of where you stand. He folds, the hand is yours. He 3-bets, you're beat but you may well have odds to call with your TP and flush draw. He calls, You may opt to value bet the turn or check it down to a showdown and you may win or lose, but you don't have any hard decisions. He won't be bluff-calling I presume.
The : Check call, check call, check ..... OOP, is a very passive line to take with a mediocre hand, and you get zero information for the chips invested. I think better to understand earlier on what you want to do. If you are calling the flop, plan forward if you are going to call the turn. If so, better to invest those chips into a x/r aggressive line. You get fold equity, and a better idea of the strength of your hand vs Villain.
Note that I don't play with a HUD or opponent stats, so maybe I am misinterpreting them. And I am also not a super winning, beast of a player. But I do like to think about these type of spots and hands. And My line would be, take it down small and early. Don't bloat the pot with KJo OOP. You can only feel good about that hand if you raise it up early and win it, or lay it down and lose a small pot.
Going from his stats he is sort of tight preflop and super aggressive post flop. The C-bet 83% tells you that you should be able to attack that with a x/r on the flop.
I disagree with the x/r flop line, we're not really at the top of our range and I'm pretty happy to play some turns and rivers.
I think the river is pretty close, I lean towards folding. I think a lot of the bluffs he has here were Ax type and probably check back river.
Here is a hand that illustrates the value of gaining information early. I complete from the BB as I getting great pot odds. Hit the flop, but as K7o is not a good hand, I have no idea where I stand. So I opt to check see what the villains want to do.
Early raiser bets small, which I feel indicates weakness. The MP call, could be holding anything from TPTK to flush draws and even sets. So I have a hand, just not to strong. Do want to call here, then what to do on a turn Spade OOP? Call again? So opt to raise it there and see what they were actually doing besides c-betting small (UTG+1) and calling with any 2 (BTN).
The subsequent call and 3-bet Shove give me all the inforamtion I need. At best I am beating a flushdraw from the button. But his line is so strong, he usually has me beat. Possibly UTG+1 has the flush draw. In any case, with this action my TP with no kicker, no draws is clearly outgunned and I have an easy decision which cost me little.
Here is a hand that illustrates the value of gaining information early. I complete from the BB as I getting great pot odds. Hit the flop, but as K7o is not a good hand, I have no idea where I stand. So I opt to check see what the villains want to do.
Early raiser bets small, which I feel indicates weakness. The MP call, could be holding anything from TPTK to flush draws and even sets. So I have a hand, just not to strong. Do want to call here, then what to do on a turn Spade OOP? Call again? So opt to raise it there and see what they were actually doing besides c-betting small (UTG+1) and calling with any 2 (BTN).
The subsequent call and 3-bet Shove give me all the inforamtion I need. At best I am beating a flushdraw from the button. But his line is so strong, he usually has me beat. Possibly UTG+1 has the flush draw. In any case, with this action my TP with no kicker, no draws is clearly outgunned and I have an easy decision which cost me little.
@ Hindsight. Could be, but is it that much more spewwy than KJo, and check calling multiple streets?
And the point being made is still there: The information gained by x/r'ing is enough to lay down then and there, and not need to second guess every call on later streets.
@ Hindsight. Could be, but is it that much more spewwy than KJo, and check calling multiple streets?
And the point being made is still there: The information gained by x/r'ing is enough to lay down then and there, and not need to second guess every call on later streets.
I am also not a beast but x/r that flop is a big NO. My check raise range only has flushes (not the nut flush), sets, or air. By gaining information you mean have him fold bluffs and continue with good hands. He ain't folding any hand that I beat so is all risk with no rewards.
I'd call river seems like a solid combo to bluff catch with.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vaniek
@ Hindsight. Could be, but is it that much more spewwy than KJo, and check calling multiple streets?
And the point being made is still there: The information gained by x/r'ing is enough to lay down then and there, and not need to second guess every call on later streets.
You can x/r here and go broke so if you do so you do it for value, not for information gain. However, this hand doesn't really need protection so I'd say it's better to use as a bluff catcher.
Also, your hand isn't a good example as K7o should be a fold pre as the hand doesn't do well in multiway pots vs early position. The check-raise doesn't accomplish anything as your going to get owned if you play all your Kx like this as their ranges are too strong and you end up "bluffing?" too much as their ranges are just stronger then yours. You basically waste your equity as the times you do improve to a better you get pushed out of the pot as many people at these stakes are a bit crazy and are often willing to get in marginal hands on the flop that you might otherwise get to showdown with. It's not that you can't bluff but you have to realize that over bluffing into very strong ranges are generally not advisable.
River is pretty close but mostly a call against a competent/agressive opponent able to find some bluffs. You need to win 25% of the time, that's not a lot and if we just put them JT/Asx in his 3 barrels range we quickly get close to the snap call territory because we're pretty high in our range and block some flushes and some Kx.
If V never bluffs the river then he has the best hand.
