partypoker - 250/500 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 99.89 BB (VPIP: 23.33, PFR: 19.27, 3Bet Preflop: 11.88, Hands: 390)
MP+1: 121.24 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 100.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
CO: 80.92 BB (VPIP: 19.53, PFR: 12.86, 3Bet Preflop: 4.71, Hands: 218)
BTN: 99.39 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
SB: 98.89 BB (VPIP: 10.71, PFR: 8.70, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)
BB: 99.89 BB (VPIP: 23.15, PFR: 18.45, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 111)
Hero (UTG): 99.89 BB
UTG+1: 99.89 BB (VPIP: 29.02, PFR: 22.83, 3Bet Preflop: 12.26, Hands: 259)

8 players post ante of 0.11 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.38 BB) Hero has K K

Hero raises to 2.7 BB, fold, MP calls 2.7 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.7 BB

Flop: (9.48 BB, 3 players) Q 5 6
BB checks, Hero bets 3.94 BB, MP calls 3.94 BB, fold

Turn: (17.36 BB, 2 players) J
Hero bets 11.57 BB, MP raises to 35.11 BB, Hero???

At this point, we win against 18 combos KQ+ and loose with 18 combos QJ,JJ,66,55

So we are 50/50, but a this point, the raise from villain is more close to the strong range, I think fold is the correct play here, what you all think?

Thanks for the help.

Just call the turn.

turn size is a little big for my taste. only bluffs i can see here are 78cc and AQcc. I think i might find a fold here

we beat more than KQ: AQ, QT, JT, 87, Maybe KT with fd

with JJ he should have 3bet

so i wouldn't say we are 50:50 against his range


i would call the turn

Is the beluga theorem still a thing? This seems like a clear fold to me. He doesn't have many bluffs and he's not raising anything worse for value...

I think the same, villain is playing for stacks now, villain is thinking on the river bet value

Villain calls flop and raises turn with basically none of those hands. I think you're rarely ahead here.

I think his preflop calling range will include a lot of speculative hands against your UTG open and several of these now have 2 pair+ (QJs, 55, 66, and possibly 65s)

Your range can include top set here but otherwise it is his range that includes more big hands. Your range looks like TPTK (12 combos), overpair (12 combos) or top set (3 combos)

In a 9 SPR pot he can put a lot of pressure on that range as it's only really the QQ where you're happy to continue, everything else you're in a tough spot

Not sure to what extent having the Kc (and thus blocking some bluffs) is a factor here - probably not that much. Having Ac would be way worse

I respect a fold here

either bet-call the turn or x/call the turn. bet-folding is definitely the worst, when opponent could be overplaying hands like AQ/KQ, some combo draws.

checking turn seems bad, and i think you'll spew off a lot of chips with this b/c mentality

"Seems bad" is not an argument. Try building a range of hands that you get 3 streets of value in this spot by betting. And then build a range that you lose to and compare number of combos. KQ is highly blocked, bunch of AQ 3bets pre. You even block his potential KT/KJs floats. He has all the sets, bunch of QJ combos. Underpairs/QT do not pay 3 streets of value eitherway.

I say seems bad because there are benefits to checking but "it would appear" we get more value from betting - so "seems bad"

this is an open discussion not an argument

I think it seems perfectly reasonable to just Bet/fold this hand. His size is very big which makes it unlikely that he is overplaying his hand and if he is bluffing he is probably going for it on most rivers anyways so I don’t see the benefit in being a station as calling KK down seems quite ambitious vs an unknown. I find people are generally just being incredible value heavy once they go for the turn raise against an UTG who should be perceived as quite strong when he double barrels in a non-heads-up pot.

Pretty easy fold here. I would check the flop instead of betting in a multiway pot at this stage of tourney.

Give him 55, 66, QJss, QJdd, and one offsuit QJ, 78cc, 9Tcc, AQcc, one of the remaining JJ combos. How are we doing vs that range? Really looks like he has QJss here. Any reads on villian? Would villian have a read on you? You have 390 hands you should know something by now. Can't discount any sets cause that is a dry board with virtually 0 worrysome cards on the turn vs an utg open at this level. Vs a random who could be overplaying AQ, or Axcc, I might not lay this down in a small stakes mtt. At this point, villians stats make me think they are a solid player and therefor, have a range of what I described.

So, fold it.