partypoker - 500/1000 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP+1): 95 BB
CO: 57.45 BB (VPIP: 43.75, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
BTN: 180.45 BB (VPIP: 21.08, PFR: 16.01, 3Bet Preflop: 12.54, Hands: 727)
SB: 76.62 BB (VPIP: 24.24, PFR: 14.67, 3Bet Preflop: 5.94, Hands: 264)
BB: 100.28 BB (VPIP: 20.35, PFR: 12.99, 3Bet Preflop: 6.60, Hands: 232)
UTG: 104.23 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
UTG+1: 121.75 BB (VPIP: 25.96, PFR: 22.03, 3Bet Preflop: 6.41, Hands: 245)
MP: 64.22 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has 9 T

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BTN calls 2.5 BB, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (9 BB, 3 players) T 9 J
BB checks, Hero bets 5.5 BB, BTN raises to 17.2 BB, Hero ???


What do you do with this?

call. we have good value, bdfd, bdsd, 6 outs to fh.

You have 232 hands on Villain, is there any other valid info in there? BB defense frequencies, flop x/r history, etc?

Given his 3b stats in combination with the flop raise, I’d say his range is quite narrow here, something like AQ/QJ/JT/99 - and we block the latter 2. I don’t see KQ raising flop, Q8s/Q9 should be part of his preflop polarized 3b range given stats. Our equity is ~60% against said range so a call and evaluate turn seems the best way forward imo.

I see many people in these threads eliminating the nuts and in particular nut straights from raising ranges.

What is he waiting for? They're deep, he's not blocking anything, he has no redraws and many runouts kill action.

The goal of big bet poker is not to deceive for the sake of it. The goal is to break the opponent in any given hand.

Fold flop, his value range has you crushed and his bluffs have good equity

its 727 hands playing 21/16. This says to me v is a fairly abc/tag reg. Sure this can be AJ,KJ but often he will just flat these and these hand have fair enough equity on some runouts vs our hand anyways. Also hands like KQ and 87 are unblocked by us and the board

Completely misread it, thought BB was x/raising you. That changes everything.

Villain has a high 3b stat through a good sample and he flatted on the BTN, so that's pretty telling. I would expect him to 3b hands like AJ/KQ/JJ/TT pre. So what hands does he flat pre and then raise this flop multiway? Probably hands like 87s/JT/J9 and maybe 99 if he didn't 3b it pre. I just can't see many other hands in his range the way he's played it.

I feel blessed too see Darth_Maul more or less agreeing with my read

Only because villain would likely 3b pre with most or all combos of KQ.

Thats a very imaginative assumption

Imaginative? He has a 12.5% 3b through 700+ hands. Punch a 12.5% range into an equity calculator and see what you get.

You're assuming he constructs his button 3bet range by simply raising the "top" X% of hands. That would be unorthodox.

Have you heard of polirized 3-bet ranges? How about mixed strat 3-bet ranges? Those are not susceptible to equity calculators analysis. lol.

don't be too excited. Darth_Maul is rec and his analysis is often superficial.

Ok - what do you think about my analysis? I agree that KQ is likely not in v’s 3b range but raising the nuts on the flop seems unlikely imo

Raising "nuts" - if you mean straight - on this board vs MP range is the best solution from BTN PoV. Just consider MP's opening range - it hits all kinds of sets, two pairs, top pairs + good/top kicker, oesd's and a lot of those hand will continue considering how deep MP's stack is.
Also, note that it's multiway pot and BTN raises against 2 players that slightly increases chances that he raised for value.
MP shouldn't fold OTF though because he has bdfd, bdsd, 6 outs to fh.

Jesus, you're just a complete *******. Good luck getting feedback on your hands.

I think that's probably how a lot of low stakes players construct their 3b ranges.

Even if someone is using a polarized 3b range, at 12.5% he would likely include KQ in the value part of that range against a HJ open.

Please tell me how we have 6 outs to FH and have a bdsd

dude, no offense, but thinking that 12% 3-b stat means that 3-bet range consists of top 12% of hands is really naive approach that is so typical for rec. players.

Also, you admitted that you are rec, here:

This guy has pretty stats so I'm willing to give him some credit.

He should be expected to have KQ in both his flatting and 3betting range vs MP. It's pretty much a dream hand to mix.

Dude, when you say "no offense" after already insulting someone, and followed by another somewhat more subtle insult, it is completely meaningless.

I am a rec player because I work for a living and poker is a hobby. Your mistake is assuming that automatically means I know nothing about the game. Regardless, however, the larger issue is how you interact with people on this forum. Many of your posts have been arrogant and condescending. The point of this forum is to learn, not to show everyone else how smart you think you are.

Dude, you’re an Ass….
Instead of explaining your thought process and why he is wrong you take every opportunity you have to insult him. It’s not about whether your correct as I agree with your analysis though you might want to read the hand correctly.

It’s not something unique to this thread it seems to be your standard approach if anyone disagrees with your opinion or simply doesn’t understand your often short replies that simply assumes everyone has the same amount of knowledge that you do. Of course, you can continue as you do but you might actually find it useful to be able to articulate your thought process.

As for the hand:

I think a much more logical assumption is that he 3bets KQs and just flats the KQo so a more balanced approach is probably just to discount some combos. I also think it's a bit of a stretch that we don't have to call this raise against a guy who is capable of 3betting light. We have good implied odds with our full house and we even have the backdoor spades. I'm not loving the spot but I think we kind of have to evaluate turn here as we have so many worse hands we can just fold.

As for the hand, I think hero has to start with a check. I couldn't handpick a better flop and opponent profile to have a 0% cbet oop.

He gets to raise you with an easily balanced range of nutted hands, good draws and miscellaneous air and we know he's aggressive enough to do it. He will be emboldened by the fact that the flop absolutely bullseyes his range.

You don't gain much from betting and getting called. Any hand that calls has good to great equity against you. In other words, your bet doesn't make that much money as a healthy % of the pot belongs to villain.

You don't protect. He's not folding any hands that you want him to fold.