Hey guys,

Just played a 2.2 into 55 sattelite. Faced an annoying spot. We are at the stone bubble, 4 left, 3 get a ticket. The chip distribution if I fold is 22 BB, 16BB, 13BB, 14BB (hero).

SB limps, I check with KJo. SB has around 11BB to start the hand. Flop is JcTs7c, he open jams. What do we do? My instinct was to fold as I am flipping against a FD way to often, no matter how ridiculous it feels. At these stakes people jam very weird combo's though, combined with the fact I had very little decision time I ended up calling (villain had T9o).

I think this was a mistake if I run the math, however I am not sure what the line is here. What are we calling here?

As for the math, our ICM value if we fold is around 36 dollar (https://www.icmpoker.com/icmcalculator/#RXPR), meaning we need around 72 percent equity to call (right?). I don't see top pair having that. What do you guys think?

EDIT: I definitely see a case for jamming pre btw, I didnt because I had a guy on the table that called way to wide (not villain), so exploitatively I thought it was in my best interest to play more passively then normal. This is an extra reason to fold also.
Another interesting point is villains point of view, if I really fold my top pairs here (the player pool probably doesn't, but you get my drift), SB gets to jam relentlessly. ICM-wise this makes sense, but I def. am not jamming T9o being him, but I am not surprised if that would show a profit if I call crazy tight. So I am quite interested to how you guys would play your range from villains perspective as well.

Guessing you don't hold the Kc here, but this is pretty annoying. Honestly, as played I would call some and fold a lot here depending on the player, because a limp from him is unlikely to be a pair type holding to beat yours, and it's a pretty big overbet, which he might not do unless he had a big draw like FD+SD, pair+FD, or FD w/ overs. I also know a lot of people at these stakes have shipped hands like middle pair for pressure here if they are aggressive and you seem tight (like he did here). With players I see as loose, aggressive, and splashy, I would actually call as played a lot here. Tighter players I'd probably just fold, but it's hard to see tighter players even doing this move.

You are most likely against a FD, a FD combo draw, or ahead a random pair + weak FD, a pair, or air (not likely total air imo). For the odds he gave you though, it's really not that worth considering the bubble too. Other higher hands that need more protection like a straight, set, or small flush I don't think he plays this way, and usually the overbet shove here is medium strength or weak. With his weak pairs and bluffs, you are definitely closer to a call overall, but those factors depend a lot on his play style, and it's still a tough spot to risk it in with ICM pressure.

Personally, I think the best answer is jamming or raising pre, and you could even just 3x his open if you think he will limp/fold a lot and is just trying to see a flop cheap and is playing loose, or passive, and you are not yourself. You still have him outchipped so you can put a lot of pressure on, and KJo isn't a bad candidate at all considering he is limping (also worth considering his limping range and general playstyle). If you are seen as loose, I'd definitely just jam here a lot- you'll get a ton of folds and scrap the blinds and his open, and when you get called you are still going to have equity.

TLDR: probably a raise or jam pre, as played, I'd lean towards a fold but it depends on the player's style and range.

Yeah, that's about as pukey as it gets in a satty. You can do math here, but I think this one comes down to table dynamics. It's really hard to see V having many nutted hands here--JJ, TT and 77 should all raise pre. 89, JT and T7(s?) are possible. But yeah, it feels like a draw or one pair (where you're ahead). And yet I still think I fold here more than I call. Again, I think this is a table read.

I'd shove this pre

This is a prototypical "game of chicken" scenario where everyone's ICM factor is huge - theoretically everyone should be shoving virtually everything from every position as no-one can call without a real monster. In the real world we have to be more circumspect as people make bad calls but V should certainly shove T9 pre and you should certainly shove over the limp unless you think Vs limping range is nutted ( you probably know it isn't)

As played - its a fold- like you say you need 72% and you rarely have it

Satellite bubbles are a weird thing. In this particular hand I probably would shove over the limp, since V can’t call unless he is trapping with a monster (assuming he is playing reasonably well). The only problem with that, is that sometimes people play suboptimal and you can get called. As played I think we have to fold vs jam. I had a spot on a satellite bubble where I folded QQ, just because playing any hand would have been ICM suicide.

Thx all for the responses, helps a lot! The reason I didn't jam pre is because of a very splashy guy at the table. Seen him make a call with T9s like 5-6 handed. Given we weren't that ridicolously shallow I thought it best to play passively and wait it out until he made a bad call. That said, if I do that then KJo should be a def. fold on the flop as well (I didnt have K of clubs btw, which would be quite relevant). I agree that even without this info it should be a fold after sleeping on it a few nights.

I do think I definitely over leveled myself in this spot. The SB calling range is a lot less nitty then I expected in game (just ran it in HRC), so I don't think even if he is over-calling it is a bad play to jam KJo by any means.

This is a really interesting point that touches on one of my earlier posts. I struggle with that 'game of chicken' a lot. Theory vs table dynamics I still find difficult. I have played a ton of sattelites lately (mostly due to huge overlays), from like 1 dollar up to 320 dollar buyins for the sattelite.

I think the strategy you should have is completely different for a 1 dollar compared to a 320. I am jamming a lot more close to nash in a 320, in a 1 dollar I pretty soon default to folding into the money, especially in large field sattys. People are just calling WAY to wide in certain spots, which is a disaster for us jamming. That said, there are spots where you should jam any suited K from EP or something like that nashwise, even in a 320 I am not doing that. Is that a bad play by me? Given how often it folds to late positions I doubt others are doing that there either btw. I don't have a large enough sample size on that by any means though. Really curious what you guys think about this? Like theory vs player tendencies in sattelites.

I will fold. The ICM is too "heavy".

Check preflop...

"how you guys would play your range from villains perspective as well."

Very often shove on SB. With this stack. Pretty wide. Without limp, raise. You know, in this situation the villains are afraid to call shove wtih "weak" hand. They wait for Ace with good kicker, good pocket pair, let's say 77. Or hand like KQ, KJs. But they will call 2x raise not so tight. You can use that. From the first position you still must play tight. They will call with let's say ATs BB vs "UTG". Ax are good for shove, pocket pairs. No sense for 2x with this stacks. Just take the blinds and the ante. And then wait...

T9o is profitable jam on SB. T8o...98o...T6s, 96s. I will play like that. If I am the shortest stack, I go crazy. Shove...But "carefull" from the early positions. Then I wait...If nothing "happens", again. Boom, boom, two times and then wait. Sorry for the silly English .

I know about "the theory". I play a lot of DoNs. But this is just not like that. This is just "a theory". You see, if you have 14bb stack and he go All with 11 bb stack, you don't have "11bb effective stack". If you lose , then this 3bb stack is "dead man walking", -EV. They all will play against you. Shortest stack must go crazy, otherwise play tight. Simple as that. In my eyes.

Oh, you talk only for this spot, SB vs BB, sorry, bad English. Well, as I said, I will shove there, nothing else. His play is so bad. Can't find a logic. With any hand. Let's say TT+, J7s+, J8o+KQ. We are dead here...