Apologies don't have the hand history but hopefully still understandable

2.20 Deepstack (6-max) Party Poker

final 16


Hero - 33.5bb (UTG+1) Qc8c
Villain - 30bb (SB) ??


I open to 2.2bb and the Villain calls from the SB

Flop 2c5c6h (Pot is ~ 5.5BB)

Villain, Hero bets 2.6bb, Villain Raise to 6.8bb, Hero calls

Turn Qs (Pot is ~ 19.1BB)

Villain bets 5bb, Hero calls

River 10s (Pot is ~ 29.1BB)

Villain jams 18.2BB, Hero ?






Obviously busted flush draw, got top pair but pretty weak, feel like he'd take this line with an overpair a lot of the time with one club but that only really leaves Aces and Kings as the danger hands and they're flatting these pretty irregularly but not an impossibility.

How often is the villain bluffing in this spot or is always gonna have me beat?

fold pre
as played you need a read to call this imo - population are underbluffing massively by this stage

Fair yeah it's a wide open thats for sure, had a number of short stacks on the table, in fact the Villain was the only one with a stack to match and we were on a significant pay jump bubble so opened a little wider than usual.

Yeah I'm very unsure as to what he would be bluffing with in this spot, hadn't had any big hands against him to this point so no real info on him.

This hand is exactly why you should fold this pre. I don't see this ever being a bluff at these stakes. Without reads that villian is a maniac its an easy river fold.

Def don't fold pre. You are in the HJ. Don't use UTG+1 just because it's 6-max.

Fold the river. You don't want to have clubs and you don't want to have the 8 as those block parts of villains bluffing range. Also agree with the under-bluffing, which means you can overfold rivers.

opening q8s is fine here imo. I think your mistake was betting this flop when the board hits the SB here so well, take the free turn card IP and control the pot so you don't get put into nasty spots vs shoves like you did here. that turn bet sizing from them is quite interesting

I struggle with spots like this. You said 3 of 4 players left to act are short stacks, so I tend to fold marginal opens because of the likelihood of getting jammed on. But you also said its a bubble spot for a significant pay jump, which would lead me to open wider. Which do we think is the overriding factor?