middle stages of a small-field Turbo $6.60 on carbon

Merge - 100/200 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG+1): 50.48 BB
MP: 23.42 BB (VPIP: 20.56, PFR: 7.00, 3Bet Preflop: 5.23, Hands: 542)
MP+1: 49.12 BB (VPIP: 72.73, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)
MP+2: 5.45 BB (VPIP: 56.60, PFR: 13.73, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 53)
CO: 42.7 BB (VPIP: 38.03, PFR: 21.05, 3Bet Preflop: 11.63, Hands: 143)
BTN: 9.9 BB (VPIP: 19.36, PFR: 11.08, 3Bet Preflop: 5.22, Hands: 348)
SB: 16.27 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 100.00, Hands: 2)
BB: 19.02 BB (VPIP: 38.72, PFR: 9.68, 3Bet Preflop: 6.52, Hands: 804)
UTG: 18.45 BB (VPIP: 32.26, PFR: 19.35, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has 8 8

fold, Hero raises to 2.24 BB, MP calls 2.24 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 2.24 BB, CO raises to 9.83 BB, HERO????


We are against a very active 3bettor but at the same time the dynamics of the hand (MP opener plus 2 coldcallers; a micro-stacked vill involved meaning the 3bettor will almost certainly be called and have to show his hand) led me to think our vill was nutted but I really can't decipher if this is just monsters-under-the-bed-syndrome or not.

Thoughts??

Seems you have to fold given the other players involved. If no one else was in the pot it's def a different spot for sure.

Just fold. Next hand.

CO is going for value here with the stack size of MP2 calling anyways.
shoving 50bb is not a good idea and calling means we call for set value, which is not a good idea either.

I would fold and take notes About CO Hand. should be something like 99+AQ+

I have found that it is not uncommon to see people go crazy in all-in pots.

Maybe they like the the thrill of showing down a bluff. I don't know.

I don't think it happens enough to gii here but it is worth noting I think. Some players are just awful and have weird thought processes.

I did an implied odds chip analysis assuming a likely win with a flopped set (or better).

If the set of 8’s has a 90% win chance and if there is a 90% chance CO will call your all-in bet, you need to win 52bb to make a profitable pre-flop call. You and villain don’t have that much. I assumed that hero check- folds if he doesn’t hit on the flop, which may skew the results some but doubt if it would change the conclusion.

Doesn't account for when MP rips behind us and we have to also fold.

I still think we can't call here and Play 88 out of Position and we don't know what MP with his 23bb is going to do.

Fold and take notes is our best Play

lol