Villian in this hand is 69/14 over 36 hands. (Not a large sample, but it's bovada and the best I can do.) They have a 100% FCB stat (again, small sample) and have yet to donk.
Ignition - 200/400 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (MP+1): 124.13 BB
CO: 18.72 BB
BTN: 66.83 BB
SB: 44.89 BB
BB: 13.4 BB
UTG: 28.12 BB
UTG+1: 57.38 BB
MP: 25.42 BB
8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has A
K
fold,
UTG+1 calls 1 BB,
fold,
Hero raises to 3.5 BB,
fold,
fold,
fold,
fold,
UTG+1 calls 2.5 BB
Flop: (9.3 BB, 2 players) K
8
9
UTG+1 checks,
Hero checks
Turn: (9.3 BB, 2 players) 4
UTG+1 bets 5 BB,
Hero calls 5 BB
River: (19.3 BB, 2 players) 9
UTG+1 bets 48.78 BB and is all-in,
Hero ????
Since I am lightyears ahead of their range OTF, and they have folded to every Cbet, I elected to check back the flop to give them a chance to fire the turn, which they did. I called to keep their bluffs in and give them a chance to stab again on the river.
I've seen a lot of these players in Bovada tournaments the last few days and have always had them on my left. I was finally in position against one and had worked to get into this exact situation (a strong hand, IP, with them driving the action). So I honestly didn't even notice the overbet. (rookie mistake, I know.) But I think that, in theory, this is a marginal spot. We should be defending roughly 1/3 here, we have all the sets OTF and AA that are better here. So, AK seems to be roughly in that top 1/3 range.
What are your thoughts?