PokerStars - 2800/5600 Ante 700 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 40.23 BB (VPIP: 30.95, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 42)
Hero (CO): 39.27 BB
BTN: 60.97 BB (VPIP: 38.46, PFR: 26.96, 3Bet Preflop: 6.98, Hands: 119)
SB: 51.39 BB (VPIP: 28.77, PFR: 5.48, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 77)

4 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2 BB) Hero has 3 3

Hero raises to 2.2 BB, BTN calls 2.2 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) 3 8 9
Hero bets 4.69 BB, BTN calls 4.69 BB

Turn: (15.77 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero bets 11.99 BB, BTN calls 11.99 BB

River: (39.74 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero bets 20.27 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 20.27 BB


V call open 26% f to cbet flop 4/6
it was sft and V was very active then

Flop, Turn are okay, a bit aggressive OTT but still okay.

River, I don't see villain calling here with a worse hand. Except maybe something like Qh9x. I like better check call this river where you give him the opportunity to bluff his missed draws.

If the villain has the tendency to bluff then I like checking the river

If the villain has the tendency to call then I like value betting the river and hoping he calls with A9 or combo draws that missed like Jh9h

Pretty dry river. Only thing is does is perhaps act as a scare card if you can rep Qx with a triple.

Checking is horrible because V mostly has midpair and 3rd pair or worse, sometimes top pair too, but his betting range OTR after facing two barrels and a check is really narrow. The pot is too big relative to eff river stacks for him to effectively pull off some next level float-float-bluff strategy, so mostly he's just going to take his SDV and give up his non-SDV hands with alacrity and then we're left holding the bag with our set having missed out on the biggest street of value.

Only river sizing that makes sense is jam, so just jam it in. We have busted FDs and A-high combos aplenty that may want to jam river on a "scare" card to make 8x very uncomfortable. I'm shocked you got called, but I'm pretty sure you're still way good here. I'd be more shocked if you lost.

I like exploitatively overjamming the turn. We're at a huge disadvantage being OOP because it's terrible to just x/f if a third heart or diamond peels but inevitably we end up GII when we're behind and having the x-x scenario play out when we're ahead. Even though you have all of {TT+, 99, 88, 77, 33, 98s, 97s, 87s} these hands still need max protection on what's shaping up to be a wet board. So go get that protection (and often lots of value) immediately OTT.