We are 2 away from the bubble, and have 3-5 blinds more than the shortest stack. 20 players remain, 18 get paid. 18th makes triple the buy-in, not sure how relevant that is.

I'm not sure whether to try and eek into the money for triple our BI and be at risk to losing chips (all other stacks near the bottom except last place are similar in sizes), try for a steal and probably safely make it in, or if this is a slam dunk shove? What should be our minimum shoving range and thought process in this spot?

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 1,600/3,200 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 7.9 BB
BB: 19.86 BB (VPIP: 18.60, PFR: 13.95, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 45)
UTG: 7.29 BB (VPIP: 35.29, PFR: 17.24, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
UTG+1: 9.45 BB (VPIP: 35.00, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 20)
MP: 6.11 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 15)
CO: 7.95 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
BTN: 6.53 BB (VPIP: 41.18, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 17)

7 players post ante of 0 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.2 BB) Hero has 3 3

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 7.8 BB and is all-in, BB calls 6.8 BB

Flop: (16.29 BB, 2 players) 3 7 K

Turn: (16.29 BB, 2 players) 5

River: (16.29 BB, 2 players) 9

Hero shows 3 3 (Three of a Kind, Threes)
(Pre 54%, Flop 98%, Turn 91%)
BB shows 6 A (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 46%, Flop 2%, Turn 9%)
Hero wins 16.29 BB

Good shove. Shoving range something like: 22+, Ax, Kxs, K9o+ and more, something around 40%. Big blind should call pretty tight because the chips gained are worth less than the chips lost... something like 15% calling range and for us we want to maximise FE. We have to keep a stack that will generate folds. Usually the payout structure in a 180man is top heavy so scraping in to the money is blah. Winning is the goal. In general, call tighter, shove wider when approaching the bubble.

no brainer jam.

I don't think so. It's the only stack that can call comfortably and considering everyone's stack sizes we will be itm before our next bb

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ICM is huge in a spot like this because virtually everyone at the table is short. I'm not shoving a hand that will never be far ahead if called into the one stack that can afford to call.

yea, I am taking back my unreasonably ultimate suggestion..33 is a coin flip or worse most of the time..no need to do that on the bubble...

No, this is pretty sf Jam imo - I'm assuming that everyone is short because it's some kind of hyper turbo rather than a freakish table - if so ICM factor is not that huge and we should be still aiming for a top 3 or 4 finish rather than min-cash.

most of the time the jam will get through and we will chip up nearly 30% - if we are called we are still in decent shape -

Yes, was a turbo. I went with this line of thinking and ended up going with the jam. Ended up getting second place for 27x my BI

Sweet.

Can you explain this? If lots of players have similar short stacks, aren't the odds of laddering up greatly increased? Which would imply ICM becomes very relevant?

I'm not saying ICM isn't relevant - clearly there is no way we can call a shove with 33 for instance
The point about stack sizes is -just imagine that the other table was populated by players with stacks of about 50 BB - this would mean that even if we doubled up our 16 BB would give us less chance of getting into the top 3 or 4. whereas if there are loads of 10BB stacks the double up is much more valuable in $EV terms. So the ICM factor (value of chips risked / value of chips gained) is lower in the second case

the general point is that ICM is important on the bubble but not so important that we don't take spots with lots of fold equity.

A6o is a bad call from BB imo

This is not a terrible shove everyone's calling range should bd really tight and the possibility of the having a hand is unlikely so I'd most likely ship this too.

Thanks, I've clearly been thinking about ICM incorrectly.