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Small Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of small stakes MTT strategy

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Old 03-23-2019, 04:41 PM   #1
gonzhax
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SB v BB , Delayed Cbet with gutshot, 2 overs

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 500/1,000 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 24.28 BB (VPIP: 20.59, PFR: 14.71, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
BTN: 5.75 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
Hero (SB): 45.64 BB
BB: 29.58 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
UTG: 38.46 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.54, Hands: 81)
UTG+1: 34.8 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
MP: 16.76 BB (VPIP: 12.59, PFR: 8.82, 3Bet Preflop: 8.77, Hands: 144)
MP+1: 17.92 BB (VPIP: 16.00, PFR: 10.64, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 101)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has Q K

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.2 BB, BB calls 1.2 BB

Flop: (5.4 BB, 2 players) J 6 9
Hero checks, BB checks

Turn: (5.4 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero bets 2.7 BB, BB calls 2.7 BB

River: (10.8 BB, 2 players) K
Hero bets 6.78 BB, BB raises to 13.55 BB, Hero?

Flop plan was to x/c with a gutshot and two overs.
Turn gave our range a few more flush draws. We have also have a lot of Jx that wants to get only 2 streets of value.
I wasn't thinking very well on the river. many draws got there and I think it's tough to get a call from worse, maybe JQ or JT . Probably functions better as a x/c. AFter a min raise from V do we ever find a fold? Is there any hand we beat that does this? It's also the micros so just call as played right?
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Old 03-23-2019, 07:34 PM   #2
Yeodan
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Re: SB v BB , Delayed Cbet with gutshot, 2 overs

I'd bet/fold this river.
I'd also bet a lot smaller, around 1/3rd pot, definitely not more than half?

You say yourself you don't think a lot worse calls, so why make it so much?

Villain is representing a flush or a bluff here pretty much all the time.
Maybe he's got QT here sometimes or even a set or two pair, but doubt he'd raise the river with that.

Bet smaller, fold if he raises.

As played, I'd fold.
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Old 03-24-2019, 03:44 PM   #3
gonzhax
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Re: SB v BB , Delayed Cbet with gutshot, 2 overs

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Originally Posted by Yeodan View Post
I'd bet/fold this river.
I'd also bet a lot smaller, around 1/3rd pot, definitely not more than half?

You say yourself you don't think a lot worse calls, so why make it so much?

Villain is representing a flush or a bluff here pretty much all the time.
Maybe he's got QT here sometimes or even a set or two pair, but doubt he'd raise the river with that.

Bet smaller, fold if he raises.

As played, I'd fold.
Why the smaller size? I think we just want one size on this river right? This is gotta be one of the worst value hands we bet with on this runout. If we bet this hand on the river I agree it's b/f.
I suppose a smaller size allows us to get value when we have flushes and straights against 2P+
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Old 03-24-2019, 03:53 PM   #4
Yeodan
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Re: SB v BB , Delayed Cbet with gutshot, 2 overs

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Originally Posted by gonzhax View Post
Why the smaller size? I think we just want one size on this river right? This is gotta be one of the worst value hands we bet with on this runout. If we bet this hand on the river I agree it's b/f.
I suppose a smaller size allows us to get value when we have flushes and straights against 2P+
Sizing bets smaller has a lot of advantages.
You control the pot and protect your stack.
You need less fold equity to bluff, since you're risking less.
You have more chance to be called when value betting.
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Old 03-25-2019, 09:56 AM   #5
gonzhax
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Re: SB v BB , Delayed Cbet with gutshot, 2 overs

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Originally Posted by Yeodan View Post
Sizing bets smaller has a lot of advantages.
You control the pot and protect your stack.
You need less fold equity to bluff, since you're risking less.
You have more chance to be called when value betting.
I agree with everything you have said except the river. I think it's a x/c . Lots of hands get there on the river and we want to use a bigger size. We have a bluff catcher
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