Let's try it now with 1500 players and the following payout structure (9% rake):
190, 140, 100, 70, 50, 39, 30, 24, 21, (15,3), (13, 3), (11.5, 3), (10.5, 3), (9.7, 3), (8,9, 3), (8, 3), (7.2, 3), (6.3, 3), (5.5, 9), (4.7, 9), (4.1, 9), (3.6,9),(3.2,9), (2.9,9), (2.7,9), (2.55,9),(2.4, 9), (2.25, 9),(2.10, 9), (1.95, 9), (1.8, 27), (1.65,27)
In the last experiments, our three winning heroes gave very similar results, so let's also study the impact of ROI:
- Player A has an equal chance of finishing in any place at the tournament.
- Player B gets a 6% ROI by finishing an extra 30% of the time at the two final tables
- Player C gets a 12.5% ROI by finishing an extra 42% at the final two tables
- Player D gets a 19% ROI by finishing an extra 113% of the time at the final two tables.
The results after 500,000 runs of 1,000 MTTs show:
- Player A loses at 68.1% of the runs, while he does better than a 125-buyin win at 2.6%. He lost 665 buyins at his worst run.
- Player B loses at 43.7% of the runs, while he does better than a 125-buyin win at 37.6%. He lost 644 buyins at his worst run.
- Player C loses at 35.0% of the runs, while he does better than a 125-buyin win at 46.4%. He lost 656 buyins at his worst run.
- Player D loses at 26.8% of the runs, while he does better than a 125-buyin win at 55.8%. He lost 601 buyins at his worst run.
What about 100,000 runs of 5,000 MTTs each?
- Player A loses at 81.1% of the runs, while he does better than a 625-buyin win at 2.5%. He lost 2265 buyins at his worst run.
- Player B loses at 30.3% of the runs, while he does better than a 625-buyin win at 29.1%. He lost 1796 buyins at his worst run.
- Player C loses at 15.1% of the runs, while he does better than a 625-buyin win at 48.3%. He lost 1472 buyins at his worst run.
- Player D loses at 6.0% of the runs, while he does better than a 625-buyin win at 68.5%. He lost 1334 buyins at his worst run.
Long story short: Play BIG samples and have a ton of edge! Games with a lower number of playres give you more guarantees, but there aren't that many fish playing! If you can find a tournament when you smash the competition but without a huge player-pool, go for it!