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Small Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of small stakes MTT strategy

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Old 11-22-2017, 08:31 PM   #851
Bob148
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Re: ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

Thanks.

Quote:
You want others to have monster stacks
Is this always the case? I would think that if 3 spots pay and there are 4 massive stacks as well as many medium stacks, that rebuying would be a bad investment. Seems that the massive stacks are hogging the tourney ev to me.
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Old 11-22-2017, 10:08 PM   #852
Darth_Maul
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Re: ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

Been micro playing 9-man and 18-man turbo SnGs again lately for the first time in years. These stretches of runbad are killing me. At some point these lines have to converge, don't they?

https://imgur.com/a/3VP41
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Old 11-23-2017, 03:43 AM   #853
LektorAJ
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Re: ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

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Originally Posted by Bob148 View Post
Thanks.



Is this always the case? I would think that if 3 spots pay and there are 4 massive stacks as well as many medium stacks, that rebuying would be a bad investment. Seems that the massive stacks are hogging the tourney ev to me.
Yes, it's always the case. Their share of tournament EV is less than their share of the chips unless it's winner-takes-all.

For example in a tournament paying 1st and 2nd in a 2:1 ratio, if you have 100 chips, and the other two have 4950 each, ICM gives the probabilites of people finishing in the different positions as

Pos : You : Any individual of the others
1st : 1% : 49.5% (proportion to chips)
2nd : 1.96% : 49.02% (you have more chance of coming 2nd than your proportion of chips)
3rd : 97.04% : 1.48% (you have far more chance of coming 3rd than your proportion of chips)

Most people instinctively accept the numbers for 1st and 3rd - well the number for 2nd place should be somewhere between those two, meaning you have a higher than your fair share chance of coming 2nd, which is also a paying position. To take the other side, consider the case where someone had 50% of the chips - would this person be guaranteed to come 1st or 2nd? - No. So if they have a 50% chance of finishing 1st, their chance of coming 2nd has to be less than 50%, which is why you see the numbers declining on the right hand side.

In this particular case your 1% of the chips can command 1.32% of the prize pool.
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