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Old 10-07-2016, 07:32 AM   #826
Tim Maia
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Re: ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

Thank you guys for the answers
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Old 10-07-2016, 02:01 PM   #827
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Grinders!

Grinders out there (especially 6max SnG), how many hands (per week or day) do you play and what sort of ROI do you get?

I'm just setting out playing 5 and 10 dollar buy ins, turning reasonable profit, around 5% ROI (not that great I don't think) but don't play many tables. Just wondering how intense the proper grinders sessions are....
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Old 10-07-2016, 02:27 PM   #828
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Re: Turbos 180s Hourly...

Quote:
Originally Posted by xPISCIVOROUSx View Post
Anybody?
thanks for your other post as wel. didnt see it until today. interesting data.

1. i play between 18:30 - 01:30 ( dutch time). because otherwise i cant get enough tables running.

2. around 7 hours (around 100 tournaments)

3. between 15-23 tables. depending on how many FT i have. on avg around 20 i think.

4. i only play turbo 180s. but lately i have been studying gto for cash games quite abit. think i give that a shot very soon. the 180s are nice, but the variance is so horrible. i have to live of it. so i am looking for a game with a less swingy structure.
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Old 10-08-2016, 08:39 PM   #829
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Re: Turbos 180s Hourly...

[QUOTE]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leia Amidala View Post
2. around 7 hours (around 100 tournaments)

3. between 15-23 tables. depending on how many FT i have. on avg around 20 i think.
Quote:
...the 180s are nice, but the variance is so horrible...
Mass tabling like this will make your ROI to drop (but maybe you´re maximizing your hourly) and low ROIs will make you more sensitive to swings.
Quote:
4. i only play turbo 180s. but lately i have been studying gto for cash games quite abit. think i give that a shot very soon. . I am looking for a game with a less swingy structure.
100% agree with you, as much as i enjoy playing them as well as MTTs i just cant take the short term variance anymore and im more than willing to trade long term EV for more short term stability playing a different format. I actually tried transitioning to cash at the end of last year and the beggining of this year, i got my butt kicked at NL10 and some at NL25, i still want to go into cash in the near future but need to have enough liferoll saved to do it for the time i need to properly adjust and not worrty about variance and also money for at least 20h worth of coaching to guide me through the process along with at least 50BIs of bankroll, but yeah i def relate to what your saying.
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Old 10-10-2016, 01:51 PM   #830
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Re: ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

i will start grinding 10nl (and hopefully moving up soon) at the end of this week. Fingers crossed. If you are interested I can let you know how it went after 30k hands or so.
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Old 10-17-2016, 09:47 AM   #831
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18man SNG profitable?

Hey guys , what's your opinion about the 18man SNG.Is this format most profitable than the 45man and the 180man long term?
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Old 10-18-2016, 07:53 PM   #832
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Re: ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

I would say that the profitability of any poker format is not nearly as important as your ability to exploit that profitability. I´ve seen it over and over again people playing X format just because it offers higher hourly than Y but they dont make as much $ in X in comparission to Y. I think just grind the game you feel the most confortable at and where you feel you have an edge.
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Old 10-18-2016, 07:56 PM   #833
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Re: ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

Quote:
Originally Posted by xPISCIVOROUSx View Post
I would say that the profitability of any poker format is not nearly as important as your ability to exploit that profitability. I´ve seen it over and over again people playing X format just because it offers higher hourly than Y but they dont make as much $ in X in comparission to Y. I think just grind the game you feel the most confortable at and where you feel you have an edge.
QUOTE OF A MONTH. AGREE 100%
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Old 10-18-2016, 08:28 PM   #834
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Re: ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

Certainly in the 15 and 30 18 mans people are much better at push fold in general. 18 mans could be good as a learning tool, since the standard is much higher than 180 mans.
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Old 11-16-2016, 12:12 AM   #835
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Re: ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

Hey guys,

I have only dabbled in the really low stakes MTTSTTs as my bankroll is fairly low. I am curious what the effects of moving from $3.50 to $7.00 is in terms of win rate? Is it drastically noticeable.. as in your ROI would be less than 1/2? Or not. I was also wondering what the jump from $7.00 to $15.00 would be like? Would really like to hear players experiences before I make the jump myself in a few weeks down the road.

I used to grind $11 STT SNGs and crush them with no HUD 10 years ago. These days, my bank roll is low and those stakes would scare me lol.
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Old 11-29-2016, 11:38 PM   #836
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Re: ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)


http://imgur.com/a/TxkOX

Hey guys,

Here is a small sample of me grinding $3.50 turbos on Stars. 18 and 45 man. I know its a very small sample, but can I extrapolate any idea of how well I would perform at the $7.00 or $15.00 level at these games?
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Old 11-30-2016, 02:56 AM   #837
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Re: ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

The short answer is no, because the sample is too small - and pretty much always will be. Just move up when you feel ready.
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Old 11-30-2016, 07:21 AM   #838
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Re: ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

Quote:
Originally Posted by stacker604 View Post

http://imgur.com/a/TxkOX

Hey guys,

Here is a small sample of me grinding $3.50 turbos on Stars. 18 and 45 man. I know its a very small sample, but can I extrapolate any idea of how well I would perform at the $7.00 or $15.00 level at these games?
Sample is way too small. You need at least 10k games to really say anything imo. Secondly, don't focus on your results in $ and/or ROI (especially with no sample size). Instead, post a graph of your ev/hands and ev bb/100 from every position. Then we can tell. GL
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Old 12-03-2016, 03:41 AM   #839
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Re: ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

As far as your rankings on Official Poker Rankings, for grinding 18 and 45 man MTTSNGs, how valid is your ranking on that site? Do you guys give it much credibility as far as how good of a tournament player you believe you are?

I have fluctuated between the top 5% and top 4% recently. My current rating is 95.87% for this year.

I'm just wondering if that is anything to feel good about, or if that will just falsely inflate my ego.
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Old 12-03-2016, 04:10 AM   #840
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Re: ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

Quote:
Originally Posted by stacker604 View Post
As far as your rankings on Official Poker Rankings, for grinding 18 and 45 man MTTSNGs, how valid is your ranking on that site? Do you guys give it much credibility as far as how good of a tournament player you believe you are?

I have fluctuated between the top 5% and top 4% recently. My current rating is 95.87% for this year.

I'm just wondering if that is anything to feel good about, or if that will just falsely inflate my ego.
pretty much this. work hard and dont give a **** about rankings
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Old 09-23-2017, 04:00 PM   #841
0112358132134
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Question 45 man downswings

How common and big are downswings in 45 man MTT's? I've been grinding 0.50$ 45 man on stars, for the past couple of days and at first I did alright but now I'm getting hit with a massive bad luck streak. I've been playing the same TAG style I played since day 1 in this format, but 51 BI downswing can't be normal for such a small field, can it? I'd understand if the field was 90 or 180, but for 45 it just seems ridiculous. I've been running through my hand histories and only found a small amount of mistakes made, which would represent 15~ BI at most, the rest were +EV decisions. Any thoughts or advice?

here's my graph

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Old 09-23-2017, 04:15 PM   #842
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Re: 45 man downswings

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Originally Posted by 0112358132134 View Post
How common and big are downswings in 45 man MTT's?
Very common and surprisingly large. Have a quick read through this thread.

Swings of a few dozen BI are ten a penny, and the lower your ROI the bigger the swings you can expect

Quote:
Originally Posted by 0112358132134 View Post
51 BI downswing can't be normal for such a small field, can it?
Totally standard, I'm afraid

You also dropped 30+BI between about games 70 and 110


Advice? Study hard, make good decisions don't tilt and grind through it
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Old 09-23-2017, 04:26 PM   #843
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Re: 45 man downswings

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Originally Posted by TeamTrousers View Post
Totally standard, I'm afraid

You also dropped 30+BI between about games 70 and 110


Advice? Study hard, make good decisions don't tilt and grind through it

Really? So what kind of BI downswing amount would fall out of the "standard"? Over 100?

That early 30 BI downswing was mostly my fault for trying out different formats to find the one I'm most comfortable at...

I'm already studying and will hire an MTT coach at one point, but tilting is very hard not to do, especially when you're playing for pennies and the massive downswing makes you question your own ability... I'm probably being silly here, but I guess people can relate to that feeling.
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Old 09-24-2017, 06:01 AM   #844
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Re: ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

The standard downswing is infinite, as the average player in the tournament is not beating the game.

Sorry if that sounds flippant, but you can't really model downswings without assuming a particular positive ROI.
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Old 09-24-2017, 07:52 AM   #845
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Re: 45 man downswings

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Originally Posted by 0112358132134 View Post
How common and big are downswings in 45 man MTT's?
They are pretty common and nearly everybody underestimates how often they happen.

If we call a 50% chance of seeing a downswing common then it works out for 45's with a 10% roi you see a downswing of:
i)62BI's (seen in 50% of each 1000 45 seat game block)
ii)81BI's (seen in 50% of each 2000 45 seat game block)
iii)109BI's (seen in 50% of each 5000 45 seat game block)
iv)130BI's (seen in 50% of each 10000 45 seat game block)

If you want to see how often to expect uncommon downswings, let's call a 5% chance of seeing a swing ie, 1 in 20, uncommon, for 10% roi they happen

i)120BI's (seen in 5% of each 1000 45 seat game block)
ii)150BI's (seen in 5% of each 2000 45 seat game block)
iii)190BI's (seen in 5% of each 5000 45 seat game block)
iv)220BI's (seen in 5% of each 10000 45 seat game block)

As there are 1000's of players in the player pool and maybe still plenty with a 'true' 10% roi perhaps a 1 in 20 isn't really uncommon. Somebody always will get unlucky with a game with a high random nature.

Don't think that bad luck only happens to you it is spread throughout the player pool. Look at the hands you are not involved in and you will see runner-runner events happening to others very often, well as often as they should statistically.
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Old 10-06-2017, 02:31 PM   #846
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Re: 45 man downswings

Quote:
Originally Posted by BaseMetal2 View Post
They are pretty common and nearly everybody underestimates how often they happen.

If we call a 50% chance of seeing a downswing common then it works out for 45's with a 10% roi you see a downswing of:
i)62BI's (seen in 50% of each 1000 45 seat game block)
ii)81BI's (seen in 50% of each 2000 45 seat game block)
iii)109BI's (seen in 50% of each 5000 45 seat game block)
iv)130BI's (seen in 50% of each 10000 45 seat game block)

If you want to see how often to expect uncommon downswings, let's call a 5% chance of seeing a swing ie, 1 in 20, uncommon, for 10% roi they happen

i)120BI's (seen in 5% of each 1000 45 seat game block)
ii)150BI's (seen in 5% of each 2000 45 seat game block)
iii)190BI's (seen in 5% of each 5000 45 seat game block)
iv)220BI's (seen in 5% of each 10000 45 seat game block)

As there are 1000's of players in the player pool and maybe still plenty with a 'true' 10% roi perhaps a 1 in 20 isn't really uncommon. Somebody always will get unlucky with a game with a high random nature.

Don't think that bad luck only happens to you it is spread throughout the player pool. Look at the hands you are not involved in and you will see runner-runner events happening to others very often, well as often as they should statistically.
Good post, thanks. I couldn't get the variance calculator to work on mtt sng's. I'm running okay at 45 and 90 man, but the 180's are doing my head in!
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Old 10-06-2017, 02:41 PM   #847
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Re: 45 man downswings

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Originally Posted by 0112358132134 View Post
How common and big are downswings in 45 man MTT's? I've been grinding 0.50$ 45 man on stars, for the past couple of days and at first I did alright but now I'm getting hit with a massive bad luck streak.
Try reg speed instead of turbo's. You'll have to play $1 games though.
Did you run your bust out hands through an icm calculator?
Are taking your M into account, and not just BB?
Are you adjusting the nash shoving ranges v the micro stakes calling stations?
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Old 11-21-2017, 07:46 PM   #848
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Re: ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

I was feeling bad because I went on a streak of fifteen 180-man Turbos without a cash. Then I found this thread. Holy ****....
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Old 11-22-2017, 12:40 PM   #849
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Re: ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

I got some negative feedback in my pgc thread regarding my rebuy strategy for small stakes small field mtts. My current understanding = ($rebuy)/(total prizepool) < (chip rebuy)/(total chips) = then I rebuy, not considering other factors that may sway it to a decline or accept rebuy spot such as:

a) big stacked tags to my left
b) short stacked nits to my right
c) monster stacks eating up huge tourney % ev
d) lack of overlay from gtd due to many rebuys
e) high % fee for rebuy
etc

The negative feedback came after I played a 1/2 price rebuy + 1/2 price add on tourney, in which I invested a large chunk of the prizepool. It went like this:

$25 gtd for 8 participants @ $2 + .20 each, with 2500 chips each to start.
I busted 4 times = 4 rebuys @ $1.10 each
I took the 3500 chip add on at the end of late registration @ $1.10
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
total investment = $7.70

Two spots paid, and I took second place, which paid $9.60.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
total profits = $1.90

Now, I realize that if I'm consistently rebuying so many times, that I will not have a positive roi unless I place at a ridiculously unrealistic high frequency, which is unlikely. However, looking at the decision to rebuy and add on in isolation, I see that second place paid out at about 4.36:1, which seems good to me.

What am I missing? Seems ok to me, especially considering that I don't always have to rebuy so many times. In fact, on numerous occasions I've made it to the end of registration with a big stack, not having to rebuy, and being in a good position to decline the add on.

I would think that if I went through my records and added up all winnings and then divided by / buyins + rebuys + add ons then I would get a result that would show either a +ev roi or a -ev roi. If positive over a decent sample, then it's likely that I'm making good rebuy and add on decisions. If negative over a decent sample, then it's likely that I'm making bad rebuy and add on decisions.

What say ye?
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Old 11-22-2017, 03:33 PM   #850
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Re: ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

The half-price rebuy/add-on decision above is correct.

If you spending more on rebuys than you're getting back in prizes then the problem is you're losing chips too much instead of winning them and not directly related to rebuys (unless you are spewing because you know you can rebuy). Post hands.

The rebuy fee should hardly affect your decision at all. If you get e.g. 1000 chips for $3 in a tournament with $1000 dollars already in the prize pool, it shouldn't affect your decision very much whether the prize pool will be $1003 or only $1002.70 after you rebuy. Either you can fight for a big enough share of the prize pool with your 1000 chips or you can't. If anything you're best off if the 30 cents goes as rake - at least you get some form of loyalty bonus or chest to open.

You want others to have monster stacks. The chips at the bottom of your stack are worth more than those at the top (of their stacks). If you were allowed to late-enter an SNG just with 3 other people remaining (i.e. they have busted the other 5) and everyone had 4000 chips, ICM says your 1500 would instantly be worth 13.84% of the prizepool even though you only put in 11.11% of the money. Rebuying and effectively re-entering as a short stack in a forest of big stacks is the same.

Last edited by LektorAJ; 11-22-2017 at 03:39 PM.
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