Congratz on the run.

To answer your question we need to know the level of certainty you require? Is poker your only source of income? can you start another roll if you ruin ? what is your acceptable risk of ruin? Lets assume a 95% interval is sufficient for your assessment needs.

Using an roi simulator if you put 45 mans in at 20 roi for a 2k sample at 95% confidence interval you have a 7-33 roi.

Increasing by a 1k sample to 3k only makes it 10-30% (same confidence interval)

So looking at 45 man I'm thinking you guys need a minimum 5k sample

3 things about using mathematical analyse to assess our roi

It doesn't take into account your roi at previous buy ins for example you have 1.5k sample at a lower buy in. If your a winning player at the lower level there is obviously a greater chance you will be a winning player at the next buy in when compared to someone with no data for the lower buy in.

Playing a mixed field size and/or mixed buy in strategy complicates things

Our results are not the only means to assess our profitability. We have software with adjusted c nets as well as our own analyse of our in game performance. Checking our push fold decisions with HRC or similar post session is also super valuable in self assessment. Ok we cant use these factors for accurate quantification of roi but when dealing with small samples with wide error bounds it can help.

For example if I moved my roll to full tilt and started playing a certain format and after a 1k sample I was -8 roi.

Due to my results in similar games and my use of software for evaluating expectation I would most likely put that roi over that sample size down to variance. More so then if I had only ever played say cash on stars.

I'm not familiar with 27 man payout distribution? how many places do these pay? Regardless I'm thinking you need a minimum 5 k sample

I'm rambling a bit...............

thanks man, but i think is just that, a run


No, I'm studying as well so till now poker s just a hobby! if i start making a fairly high amount of $/h i won't hesitate to turn it into my unique source of incomes

QUOTE=URagnatha;50178075] can you start another roll if you ruin ?[/QUOTE]

I don't think i can ruin if i stick to a strict br management.. Im not ashamed of stepping back and rebuild if thats the case


Im only mixing 1 level so i don't think thats a problem, and while i play only 5-6 and pay lot of attention 75% of them are the limit i provenly beat.


payout structure:
1rst. 37.04
2md. 26.67
3rd. 17.78
4th. 10.37
5th. 8.14 all of them %

many thanks for all your answers sir !

For 45s id say about 5k games would give you a somewhat accurate sample size, with that said I imagine you are studying so as your sample size increases your skill level will be going up as well. But you should have a good "average" around 5k games.

As for bankroll you hit the nail on the coffin with your comment move up and down within stakes depending on your current bankroll. Move up as your bankroll increases and move down if you run into a rough patch

IMHO This is prolly one of the most important things in poker... It also says a lot about your discipline and self control, i have never ( and i don't think i ever will ) pushed my roll ... i do think step by step is possible to build yourself a lovely roll

Good. That's the thing that keeps you from going bust. Without that it's just a question of using statistical models to calculate how long you last before the downswing is bad enough for you to go bust.

Set your BRM up so that your move down BR and move up BR is the same number. The way most people do it is to say they will move up to level X when they hit $1000 and drop down again when they hit $800. That's wrong, use the same number (e.g. $900) or it's painful when you drop down.

I made a withdrawal this morning then ran horrendously for the first half of my session and had to drop down to the 4 euro level but by the end of the session I'd got back so that didn't hurt.

Well i have my own br management and I'm pretty sure i won't go broke... but the truth is that i have pushed it.... i moved up when i reached 50bi - started to combinate levels, usually playing 5-6 tables and only one of them the upper level.... Since then I've doubled up my roll and i still combine the levels, still playing only 1 table of the new level with a lovely 80%roi, but not planning to play 6 tables of that level until i feel comfortable enough!

I'm planning on getting back into poker, having gotten out of it for the past few months due to lack of time. I was a fairly successful (or lucky) tournament player (shipped two approx 1k fields in under 1k games, iirc) and learnt a lot from streamers like chillindude, jcarver and pokerstaples. Going to try a bankroll challenge to prove to myself i can win longterm, without just occasional binks. The brc is 50->1k, and as u can see below, the brm is fairly conservative. Do u see any tweaks/improvements i could make to the schedule below? I intend on using tableninja+pt4 to help with multitabling. Do i need hm2 to operate tableninja?

1. 50->80 0.25 45man slow (not sure if these still run, if not ill do turbo version. Ill probably include turbos anyway to keep table count up) 10 table 40% roi. Average 10/hour. 0.4*0.25*1=1/hour. 30 hours required/ 300 games.

2. 80->170 0.50turbo 180/45 man 15table 15% roi. Average 30/hour. 0.075*30=2.25/hour 40 hours required/ 1200 games

3. 170-> 350 $1 90/45 slow/turbo $1.5 45 turbo. 10 table. 15% roi.
15/hour abi=1.3 1.3*0.15*15=2.92/hour 61 hours required,
915 games required

4. 350->600 2.5 180man turbo 10%roi 12 table, 20/hour.
2.5*0.1*20=5/hour. 50 hours/1k games required

5. 600->1k 5spko 2.5 180 4.5 180 man(slow). 15% roi (apparently 4.5 and 5 are soft, but im worried this might be too high as spko can erode roi) abi 4 8 table (spko requires attention) 15/hour. 15*0.15*4=$9/hour (seems insanely high) 67 hours/1000 games required.

Total 248 hours/4415 games required.
Im aware i am not taking into account moving down, so adding on another 50 hours for that (why not), gives 298 hours. Im probably suffering from the planning fallacy with some of these roi estimations, but i am trying to keep it as real as possible. Could anyone please share their experience of a bankroll challenge like this?

I don't see how can this possibly happen starting from the bottom but i don't wanna play the hater tho i have seen challenges of some crushers starting with 5$ turn them into 1k in a couple of weeks or somat, u can find the challenge in the section of poker goals and challenges... but i would highly recommend u that have the basis of poker and so on to start with your 50$ br at 1.5$ and cut some tables, maybe u can play 10 tables..

something like 50-> whatever u are aiming for the next level... 20%roi (which is easy to maintain) 10/hour 1.5*.2*10= 3£/h within 100-200h of playing (considering downswings and so on) u can easily start playing those 2.5

Ya, but having a 30bi downsing from the start would end it. Could you please explain what would stop me grinding from the bottom to the top. Im aware of the severe psychological challenges of poker, ive played decent volume cash and tourneys over the past year, with huge up and downswings, having ground it up from 1$ to 670$ before withdrawing a lot of it, (obviously with some run good to start). Trying to do it in more disciplined fashion now and cash is too tough with regards rake at the micros.

I just don't wanna u get stuck in those limits... usually the correct approach to those .25, .5 and even 1$ is to turn your brain off and start playing like a robot, some pple find a lot of fun in that (me included) by seeing the atrocities others do! But theres no a HUGE gap between those limits believe me! And i don't think u can ruin playing a couple of tables and paying some attention what villains do, u will find yourself crushing them in a blink of an eye, u can start with 4-6 tables and then add some more as u feel comfortable or know the moves of some villains !

OFC all of these if u wanna scalate faster and reach some serious levels, but if its of your enjoyment to start from the bottom of the bottom spent weeks playing the micros and make a prophecy happens its ok brah !

Ya but the idea of this bankroll challenge is to be conservative, and prove I can win long term, rather than take super aggressive 30bi strategy. (I've played the 1.5 before. I've had 30bi downswings at them, heck ive had 60bi downswings at 0.50 45mans. yes I know some of you may snort at the idea of me thinking 60bi downswing is big, but I obviously haven't put in enough hours to experience anything bigger. Just making it clear that 30bi shouldn't be what you rely on, seeing as one kelly brm recommends i play 1 dollar to start with, and that is fairly aggressive.

tbh variance in sngs can be brutal, had myself -75bi playing 1$... i was thinking of myself like the biggest whale ever, but u know its just that, then had a huge upswing that made me moved up a couple of levels ! If i were u i wouldn't even think about those .25 and 50$ seems ok to me to play 1$

Your 2 sentences are completely self-contradictory. Variance is sick, had a 75bi downswing, but its OK to play $1 mtsng with $50.

I presume this is a small sample. If not, what stake, game format is this?

yes! its just that.... its completely ok to play 1$ sng with 50bi, variance? ufff that can get pretty nasty, but the best way to fight variance is cutting table, tighten up your game at those limits by choosing better your hands and playing ABC poker! a 75bi variance can be easily avoided at those limits my friend! and u gotta be the unluckiest person in this world to start your challenge with a -50bi lol

Dude, as told u before there was this guy who started with 5bi

1. Not really. Working with 45man payouts approx. if all you do is mincash 15 times (2$*15=30$) with 1 wins (12$*1=12$) in 100 games, your winnings are 30+12-100=-58$.
All it takes is a streak of mincashes.

2.That had to be husng and ran well, or else single table tourneys in 2003, otherwise I call bull****.

lol . . . i can see u are new here around ! LOL

please m8 check the poker goals and challenge section

50$ sng's :P and it is indeed a small sample ! .... my friend i was only trying to give a hand and not let the micros drag u down ! but u can do as u want or better wait for another answer, different point of views is the last name of this forum!

u can also email ps and request a .1 sng format to start happier and covered !

I really like the figures you posted here. Many people manage their money irresponsibly and play with too few buy ins. You have demonstrated a really good attitude, and I think you will go far if you maintain this attitude and play consistently. These games can absolutely be beaten, and beaten convincingly. About a year ago, I started over at the 50cent SNGs. I now play $15 SNGs and up to $27 tournaments.

I actually use more by ins than you listed here, often more than 500 and sometimes even 1000. It would be nice if you could regularly update this thread, or post one in the Poker Goal and Challenges forum.

Fair enough from bi perspective, if you feel u cant beat higher limits yet, but if you are reaching for the stars (midstakes mtts :-) ) it isnt an option to go that slow.

Ill see what i can do in terms of updates, i have a tendancy not to follow through with blogs etc but ill do my best.

Any ideas on achievable/ceiling ROIs for $5 90 mans, $11 90Mans and $3r 180mans?

I believe there's a few guys who have sharkscope stats of about 30% for the $5 kos. I'm not sure how accurate sharkscope is in terms roi in those though. And I've never bothered to scope regs playing $11s

For the 3rs good regs will be making somewhere between $2-3/game. That was before raking of rebuys began and I haven't gotten a good enough sample yet but I assume profits will drop about $.50/game

Hi!

I wonder if you guys could help me out. I seem to have some major leaks (or a major bad run of variance) in my game that i just cant seem to find. I have been grinding the 180s (2.5 and 3R). Here are my results:

2.5: 5000 sngs: 7% roi
3R: 1000sng: 40% roi

Overal 15%.

But im very concerned the roi of the 3r is just an upswing, and the 7% roi of the 2.5 is more like my real roi. No way of knowing this for sure of course. I did had a 350 buyin downswing last month ( did got back from it, making this a break even month).

I analyze my game very thoroughly. After each session i load a couple of deep runs in HRC. Check my shove and call ranges against nash ranges (adjusting the ranges where needed). And spend a lot of time on studying icm spots.

Bottom line: I think my shoving and call ranges, and icm adjustment at final 10 are pretty rock solid. I see regs with good roi's at final table making horror calls with KJs vs a 10bb MP shover ( which is absolutely fine in chip ev, but most often not so in icm mode).

But that 7% roi over 5000sngs is not very promising. Also considering the downswing of 350 buyins i just had (making a low overall roi even more probable).

The only think i can think of, is that i overvalue icm. Especially when I have a medium stack at a final table. If you play according to icm you really cant do much in that situation. Your stack has a lot of value, and busting before shorter stacks would be bad. Of course you have to call a lot tighter under icm pressure, but you also cant shove that much. If you are in EP you can only shove TT,AQ+ for instance. While the nash shove ranges are a lot wider. But because people are calling looser then nash (only at FT, in chip ev it is just the opposite) according to HRC you have to shove a lot tighter. SO i think i might be trying to ladder up too much. While ignoring the big prizes at the end. So maybe i should shove wider there ( like nash ).

This are my finishes:

ITM: 14%
VPIP/PFR/3bet: 17/16/9

# of finishes:
10: 21
9: 23
8: 24
7: 25
6: 22
5: 27
4:30
3:33
2:39
1:34

Any tips, suggestions, comments are welcome.

Thanks!

Maybe work on your HU game?

In regards to the ROI stuff you're likely going to be weighted nearer towards the 10% mark. 1000 3rs isn't really a sample (you know this) and is likely just pure heat running in the top few percentile. There are some roi calcs you can mess around with online. 7 at 2.50s really isn't that bad, I'll list some reasons why it's not at the 20% mark the top regs get. Even 5k there's still a fair bit of fluctuation when looking at rois.

This is likely a pretty big factor. I chat to one very good reg (20% roi in 180s over v big sample) in particular who likely makes a lot of what you would call "horror calls".

The ICM is so top heavy even at final tables you should be pushing for the top 2-3 spots before thinking about making crazy icm folds with 8 left. You mention you having an average stack has a lot of value and busting before short stacks would be bad, but you really have to look at how small the jumps are at the start and how top heavy the structure is.

Imo in order to get the top ROIs you just have to be willing to take the high variance low edge spots on FT bubbles/six left in order to give you a good chance of taking down the tournament (perhaps there's a reason the good regs are doing it?). Getting good at HU and short handed is ofc vital (wonder how much ev bad regs (including myself) are giving away here), wouldn't hurt reviewing some of your HU play.

Another reason why you're ROI might be lower than you think it should be is because (I guess you're playing a decent sample) the regs who you play with a lot are just exploiting the **** out of you at FTs since they know you effectively nit it up a bunch. Probably chucking a bunch of ev away there if you've played the same way for xthousand 180s.