ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) - Page 30 - MTT Poker Strategy

jjwhite09,

No, it's not. You might have gotten sloppy and brought your B or less game some but if you think that surge winding up at ~750 is sustainable, nah.

The stretch between 1,100 and 1,200 should be roughly your true ROI. It is probably when you tried again realizing you weren't Ivey.

Good luck, and it's fine to be human. Come back when you've got a sample size of 10,000 including 6.5's and a few 27's in.

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10-01-2015 , 12:30 AM

#727

jjwhite09

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 283

Thanks guys. Yea I think I may have been playing too many tables also I was experimenting with stack and ttileand might have gotten a little carried away. Lol.

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10-20-2015 , 02:35 PM

#728

EyzHawk

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 7

Has anyone played a decent sample size of the Progressive KO Turbo 90 mans? I am wondering what the verdict is on those and have not been able to find much info. Look like a fun and profitable format. Thank you in advance for help.

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10-21-2015 , 06:00 AM

#729

Uhrenknecht

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 3,896

Based on a 5% ROI; (not much, but it shows you're a winning player. making 17,5 cent per game means you make ca. 50cent pre rake)
If we part it in three parts, game 1-750 (+350$) can be $-267 - $489 in the 95% confidence,

Next 240 games you can make $-279 - $391 with a 99.7% confidence and losing 300$ in that sequence really is a ultra rare case or probably some C game but most likely downswing + bad game.

With a -15% ROI you can be $-319 - $70 in the 95% confidence.
with a -25% ROI you can be $-319 - $-113 in the 70% confidence.

next 250 games are break even, so standard.

Last edited by Uhrenknecht; 10-21-2015 at 06:09 AM.

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10-21-2015 , 07:31 AM

#730

zokano.zm

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 5

How much BR for 3.50 18 man turbo in pokerstars

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10-21-2015 , 09:26 AM

#731

zokano.zm

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 5

bump

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10-21-2015 , 11:02 AM

#732

Kristofero

banned

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 1,317

Fun or work, zokano.zm?

If fun, then maybe 150-200ish. Otherwise 400ish is good. You never want to be thinking about your bankroll during a set or when registering for tables.

A roll big enough that you can ignore how many buyins you're putting into a set of 8, 16, 24, 32 x 3.50?

Comfort zones are important for efficient play. So is not getting sloppy after a great set of results over a day or two.

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10-21-2015 , 11:06 AM

#733

zokano.zm

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 5

I play 1.500games Roi >12 but i busto in life,no job and i want play for you,i want grinding and dont know how much BI is closed

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10-21-2015 , 11:08 AM

#734

zokano.zm

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 5

Sry for bad eng

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10-21-2015 , 11:09 AM

#735

Kristofero

banned

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 1,317

is np. if it's for life money, ~300-400USD, pay yourself out of that, never let that 300-400 go down unless it's a life emergency.

been there. you'll be fine.

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10-21-2015 , 11:35 AM

#736

zokano.zm

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 5

see in tables in next weeek

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10-28-2015 , 08:26 AM

#737

iMakavelli

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 7

Hi i moved to 180man turbos from cash games and Heads up Hypers.
I have 2 questions
1. What are achievable ROIs in 2.5, 3.5r, 8$ games? probably not more than 12-15% ?
2. I dont have much experience in 180 turbo structure yet, but to my experience most of our edge comes from push fold spots and ICM spots at final table? So basically best way to improve would be analysing FT ICM spots and discussing hand ranges for mid-game push fold spots?

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10-28-2015 , 10:46 AM

#738

Nofear47

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 1,822

Hard to say but, top tier players are going to have rois like this.
2s-30-40%
3r-25-35%
8s-10-20%

Yes, push/fold stuff and icm are very important. Learning to exploit fish and regs is crucial and being solid at post flop.

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11-10-2015 , 03:25 PM

#739

kwanho1

adept

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 716

The amount of spite calling I get from other regulars is unreal. How can they be profitable in the long term from all those all in calls when bubble factors are so high in turbo SNGs?

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11-10-2015 , 05:15 PM

#740

Nofear47

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 1,822

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwanho1

The amount of spite calling I get from other regulars is unreal. How can they be profitable in the long term from all those all in calls when bubble factors are so high in turbo SNGs?

bubble factors are more important on 9/18/45 mans because the payouts are flat where 180 mans bubble factors don't mean much

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11-18-2015 , 05:03 AM

#741

rodgethat

banned

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 2,186

Quote:

Originally Posted by EyzHawk

Have played about 3k of them myself, what would you like to know?

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11-22-2015 , 11:14 AM

#742

bharrison

adept

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 743

Hey,

I currently have a roll of around 550 on pokerstars is this enough to grind these? I have played some before and I have played quite a few mttsngs, sngs, mtts so have some experience.

Thanks for any input

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11-23-2015 , 04:47 AM

#743

Theodorus20

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 304

I'd say no.
I'd go with minumium 200 BI. As an inexperienced player, it's reccomended a lot more than that.

But check it out yourself: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/19...hread-1366815/

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11-28-2015 , 07:24 AM

#744

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,826

IMHO it's fine to do the 180 15 minute tournaments with that bankroll, but only on the basis that you drop down to the $1 180 15 min whenever your bankroll is below about $300.

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12-03-2015 , 08:02 AM

#745

URagnatha

adept

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 1,158

omfg i should have $3000-7500 br to play the 3.5rebuy 180's!!

Im not even close to this as i have just under 1k which i got up from $50 dollars after blowing all poker winnings (live and online) on a holiday and a car.

Poker is not a source of income for me in regards to living expenses so is it ok to play like this taking a shot or is the variance in mtsng just to high and therefore to high risk of ruin?

maybe i should stick to 2.5's to improve br or even play some stt for lower variance although lower roi. 180 man $3.5 rebuy are just so soft though.

Whats a likely risk of ruin with a 1k br (assuming an ok roi) in $3.5 180 man rebuys playing mostly daytimes.

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12-03-2015 , 08:29 AM

#746

URagnatha

adept

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 1,158

Ive played around with variance simulators and people saying you should have 500 BI to play 180 man turbo buyins seams extremely conservative to me?

Does it assume that poker is our only source of income and if we ruin we lose the house, car and the kids go to live with their mothers sister in Narnia?

Looking at it i will ruin sometimes with a 1k roll but not often really and it seams an acceptable level of risk for decent potential earnings, and i only used a 15% roi which i hope is fairly conservative as i had almost 15% percent playing 6 man stt's.

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12-03-2015 , 08:35 AM

#747

nomalice

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 1,653

3.50rb and 8$ are extremly reg infested and swings of 300BI's are common even for better regs,so I would suggest you to stop playing them regulary with so small BR. think about mixing 2.50 with 5PKO and 7$ 45s at best with that br

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12-03-2015 , 08:47 AM

#748

URagnatha

adept

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 1,158

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomalice

thanks for response. What do you think an acceptable br would be 2.5k?

I dont think of them as particularly reg infested at all especially in comparison to stt. But thinking about it yeah theirs fish but by the time you get to ft there are very few fish getting to the stage where most of the profit is. but in early stages people are pretty bad!

Also final table is mostly push /fold which is pretty easy to play (and study with hrc). Im better at push/fold poker then deeper play vs regs.

Think ill play 2.5 's untill after Christmas then look at bank roll and maybe deposit.