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ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

08-21-2015 , 03:36 AM
^ I would say about 30%-40% is achievable in 45s if you are genuinely the best player in the field. There is a Ukrainian player who has an ROI something like that over a massive sample.

It's worth remembering that this works out to about 30-40 cents per circa 1.25 hours average time spent in the tournament though
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-21-2015 , 01:13 PM
Thank you very much for the response.

It's totally fine when 12-tabling, making $2.88-$3.84 per hour on such a low limits
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-21-2015 , 01:20 PM
And a couple more questions.

What bankroll considered very very solid on 180-mans? Is 80 BI's enough? And same for 45-mans?
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-21-2015 , 02:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by InLoveWithVariance
Thank you very much for the response.

It's totally fine when 12-tabling, making $2.88-$3.84 per hour on such a low limits
Although possible to get 30%+ this is pretty unusual, it is far more likely that learners will struggle and often lose - it's not easy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by InLoveWithVariance
And a couple more questions.

What bankroll considered very very solid on 180-mans? Is 80 BI's enough? And same for 45-mans?
If you are willing to drop to lower levels if things go wrong you can push your bankroll but even so 80BI is extremely low. It is quite easy to go 80 games with just a couple of min cashes, bubbling late on, and downswings of 500BI can happen, 180s are a tough game.

Initially try to play just a few tables and quite low limits, you can learn fast without blowing a roll that way.

45s have a lot less variance attached and so a smaller BR is needed but even so 80 is still extreme.

At the start of your learning you don't know your quality and if you have a break-even or neg roi your BR isn't really a BR it's more of a float to get through some of the learning curve. Take care.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-21-2015 , 02:56 PM
Wow some shocking numbers...

Considered this data I better play reg speed head-up. Correctly I understund, that more player in the tournament = more variance? Ofc with standart prize pool distribution.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-21-2015 , 04:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by InLoveWithVariance
Wow some shocking numbers...

Considered this data I better play reg speed head-up. Correctly I understund, that more player in the tournament = more variance? Ofc with standart prize pool distribution.
Don't let me put you off these games as they can be a very enjoyable and profitable game. Just be careful, the variance is very high and this means often some get lucky early and think they are easy, others get an early difficult time. I always feel it is better to have an inkling of what can happen to prepare you a little and help mentally.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-21-2015 , 05:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by InLoveWithVariance
Wow some shocking numbers...

Considered this data I better play reg speed head-up. Correctly I understund, that more player in the tournament = more variance? Ofc with standart prize pool distribution.
Yes, but also the higher ROI the lower the variance and downswings. Generally you can't get the same ROI playing heads up.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-21-2015 , 06:27 PM
Thank you guys. I probably start playing $0.25 45-mans and go from there. I think 320 BI's would be enough.

If I get 40%+ ROI, i moved up to $1 45-mans.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-21-2015 , 07:06 PM
Good choice. I did a lot of my learning in those games.

I would move up quicker though. The thing is, 40% ROI is the same money as 10% ROI in the $1 and the level of play is only a bit harder. You also learn more playing higher. I would say move up once you have at least 100 BI for the $1 game (if that means winning $20 in the 25c game then that's 80 BI).
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-21-2015 , 08:09 PM
OK, now i have more concrete plan Thanks again.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-24-2015 , 04:48 AM
I`m on the same regular 45`s & 180`s "path" as @InLoveWithVariance and got some questions.

Why i`m asking this it`s because at my local time (GMT+2) games in the morning-till evening/afternoon is pretty dead. It takes 10-25 mins for one 1$ 45`s reg to load. Because of no action there is only few semi-regs playing and many fishes. This gives us higher ROI.a Also playing 4-6 tables is good to our ROI but i`m not sure if it gives more $/hr than playing on peak 12~ tables, when we can load more tables when we bust(~5min/table @ peak.) As i`ve red/seen from nowaday trends Turbo are better to build BR faster and also $/hr rate + action/traffic is always there. As i`m trying to have 8-10 hours session per day i`m now forced to grind @ 1$ 45`s druing night and sleeping at day.

1) From what i`ve red we can make assumptions on our ROI at 45`s turbos after 3-4k games sample, what number would be for regular 45`s?
2)Is it theoretically true that turbo MTSNGs is easier to play than regulars, cause we most of the time have two options - push or fold? (I understand that because of this we also get way more variance)
2.1) If 2.0 assumption is true. Is it the reason why we have less ROI in turbos?
3) Is Push/Fold charts suitable for Turbos is same as good for Regular?
3.1) Or in regulars we have more r/f or playing post flop options with 10-15 BBs because of fact that levels are twice as long and we have more time waiting for a better hand?

Hope you guys understand what i`m trying to say with my broken english and poor mind expression
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-24-2015 , 09:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nork756
As i`m trying to have 8-10 hours session per day i`m now forced to grind @ 1$ 45`s druing night and sleeping at day.
I would try to either enjoy the games or spend lots of time learning rather than grind away at $1 Sngs. It seems like you want to make a go of poker and so learning fast would be the answer, if you get better the bankroll naturally follows. If you grind at a low roi you don't get better quickly and the bankroll often doesn't grow anyway. Try to find a time plan that gets you learning fastest. Perhaps for some people grinding may work but for most it is reviewing hands/tournaments, posting hand-histories and other study.
Quote:
1) From what i`ve red we can make assumptions on our ROI at 45`s turbos after 3-4k games sample, what number would be for regular 45`s?
The ball-park figure for roi after 4k games would be +/- 8% at about a 70% confidence level. ie. if you have a 10% roi it may be coming from a lucky streak with a real 3% roi or an unlucky streak with a 15% roi, and this is for just a 70% confidence (or 30% of times instead of 10% you have an roi even outside the 10% +/-8% ranges)
Quote:
2)Is it theoretically true that turbo MTSNGs is easier to play than regulars, cause we most of the time have two options - push or fold? (I understand that because of this we also get way more variance)
2.1) If 2.0 assumption is true. Is it the reason why we have less ROI in turbos?
I am not sure if 'theoretically easier' but they are faster and so less time for skill to show up and make a difference. You can usually get more roi in non-turbos for this reason and to add to this less regs and more randoms play them.
You don't get more mathematical variance in them though, actually if anything it is the opposite, it is just that many use the term variance to mean downswings. Downswings happen much less if you have a healthy roi, if playing the same sized fields the variance will be the same.
Quote:
3) Is Push/Fold charts suitable for Turbos is same as good for Regular?
3.1) Or in regulars we have more r/f or playing post flop options with 10-15 BBs because of fact that levels are twice as long and we have more time waiting for a better hand?

Hope you guys understand what i`m trying to say with my broken english and poor mind expression
Push/Fold charts will work the same for either type but in both you do have to try to adjust you play. Sometimes, in late position, a min raise will get the folds and a raise fold line will be better, sometimes a raise call line wins - you do want to try to find when these type moves outperform the simple push.
You also have to adjust for how often the players in your games call pushes - many don't call anywhere near Nash ranges and so more of the weak hands could be pushed.

.. and it is quite a clear post

Last edited by BaseMetal2; 08-24-2015 at 09:46 AM.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-24-2015 , 10:16 AM
Thanks for fast & great reply.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BaseMetal2
I would try to either enjoy the games or spend lots of time learning rather than grind away at $1 Sngs. It seems like you want to make a go of poker and so learning fast would be the answer, if you get better the bankroll naturally follows. If you grind at a low roi you don't get better quickly and the bankroll often doesn't grow anyway. Try to find a time plan that gets you learning fastest. Perhaps for some people grinding may work but for most it is reviewing hands/tournaments, posting hand-histories and other study.
I`m enjoying the games right now, and hoping to enjoy studying also ASAP.

My problem which i face up is no action from 10AM to 5-6PM. I feel less concentrated while playing 3-4 tables, and getting more fancy/spewy/stupidly at higher frequency than playing 8-10+ tables.So ATM i`m getting up at 6PM making 1hr reviews/study and grinding till 3-5 AM/depending on the action. Its OK for me as i`m an OWL, but social life struggles a lot. Or maybe you ment that its not worth playing 10-12 hours a day, but for e.x. get up @ 9-12AM study for 4-5 hours, then start playing at 6-7PM when there is still action till somewhat 11-12PM?

P.S. What i forgot

If looking into grindin perspective Regular 180`s is 1$ and 4,4$ while 45`s ends in 3,5$ and 6$ but i imagine there is low low low action @ 6$ while turbos is different story. So imagine we are crushing 4,4$ 180`s at some point and are overrolled for the games jumping higher would only be transfering into turbos or micro/low mtts which is still high variance compared to MTSNgs. So would it be wiser to start developing in turbos or you think there wont be a problem transfering from Reg to Turbo?

Last edited by Nork756; 08-24-2015 at 10:36 AM.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-24-2015 , 07:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nork756
Thanks for fast & great reply.



I`m enjoying the games right now, and hoping to enjoy studying also ASAP.

My problem which i face up is no action from 10AM to 5-6PM. I feel less concentrated while playing 3-4 tables, and getting more fancy/spewy/stupidly at higher frequency than playing 8-10+ tables.So ATM i`m getting up at 6PM making 1hr reviews/study and grinding till 3-5 AM/depending on the action. Its OK for me as i`m an OWL, but social life struggles a lot. Or maybe you ment that its not worth playing 10-12 hours a day, but for e.x. get up @ 9-12AM study for 4-5 hours, then start playing at 6-7PM when there is still action till somewhat 11-12PM?

P.S. What i forgot

If looking into grindin perspective Regular 180`s is 1$ and 4,4$ while 45`s ends in 3,5$ and 6$ but i imagine there is low low low action @ 6$ while turbos is different story. So imagine we are crushing 4,4$ 180`s at some point and are overrolled for the games jumping higher would only be transfering into turbos or micro/low mtts which is still high variance compared to MTSNgs. So would it be wiser to start developing in turbos or you think there wont be a problem transfering from Reg to Turbo?
You do seem to be thinking this through so hopefully you will do fine.

I don't think there is much difference between style for turbo's and standard. Perhaps you do get caught out a little more often if the blinds change just as you hit them but generally if you start a hand with xBB's relative you play the same for similar payout structures.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
09-02-2015 , 07:41 PM
Anyone could give me some insights about 180`s average ROI and $/hr playing 10-12 tables? Maybe there is some way to search this through SharkScope leaderboards?
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
09-03-2015 , 04:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nork756
Anyone could give me some insights about 180`s average ROI and $/hr playing 10-12 tables? Maybe there is some way to search this through SharkScope leaderboards?
you can search on 7 tables or more leaderboards.
select the stake you want en see what the top guys ROI's are at.

did this yesterday for the 2,50 180 and the top is around 30% ROI but they are pbb 18/24 tabling maybe even more.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
09-03-2015 , 05:02 PM
Won`t 7 tables or more show 90 mans also?
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
09-04-2015 , 04:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nork756
Won`t 7 tables or more show 90 mans also?
they do but there not played as much as the 180mans
therefor the top is all 180 man players
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
09-06-2015 , 08:32 AM
Hey guys, Took a little break from the 180s being a reg for years but thinking of getting back into them by starting back at the 2.50's. I read about 10-15 pages ITT and there is some great advice but I was curious if someone could link to the sharkscope 180 man leader boards perhaps so we can see some of their swings! I tried looking it up myself but no luck, i'm also curious to who the top regs are now at what stake (2.5,3R,8,15) 35s simply don't run enough IMO. Have a good day guys
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
09-06-2015 , 11:53 AM
Roi for good regs are roughly as follows. 2.5s = 20-30%
8-15s = 5-15%. Expect 100 buy in swings to be the norm. 200-500 buyin I would expect one every 5k ish games
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
09-29-2015 , 03:51 PM
What is considered to be the normal range for this stat?
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
09-29-2015 , 10:23 PM
Standard Deviation varies depending on ROIs and sample size, play around with this variance calculator...

http://pokerdope.com/tournament-variance-calculator/

But im guessing it should be between 125-150
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
09-29-2015 , 10:57 PM
Very useful. Thanks!
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
09-30-2015 , 06:15 AM
Hey guys...I was wondering if this is a somewhat standard type of downswing to be expected playing the $3.50 18 man turbo SNG's? Or do I have some massive leaks to plug? Any winning players experience a downswing like this in these games? Or is this sample size nowhere near big enough to determine anything? Thanks in advance!

[IMG][/IMG]

Last edited by jjwhite09; 09-30-2015 at 06:43 AM.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
09-30-2015 , 09:00 AM
Hard to say.
The level @3,5 and 7's shouldn't be too hard to beat for ~+10%ROI longterm with any decent thinking poker to make up for long variance stretches. So yes, a 50bi is possible offcourse, but I could think you could have some leaks as well or not making the most profit out of weak players enough. Focus on bubble and ICM plays, focus on solid shove and reshove ranges.

My graph 18m $1,5-$7's
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote

      
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