Quote:
Originally Posted by mateuschwarz
Well, the second graph is for 45 man, not 180 man. If it were 180's, I'd surely think that it is a normal deviation. But for 45 man I think it is a bit too much.
You didn't state how many but it looks like about 1000 games or so.
From my results at 45s I can give you a guestimate but it won't be particularly accurate, and also if not filtered in some way these graphs don't really tell us much. You can be financially very lucky in your allins and still easily look like you aren't on the graph as the HU hands dominate all the others and they aren't actually worth much per chip a-la icm style. If a few HU allin hands don't go your way these are huge in chip difference but not worth much as a chip is only 20% it's value at the start of play.
I've checked on my last 3000 games of 45's and if unfiltered for number of players I get a variance per allin(pre-river) hand hand of ~20,000,000.
This may look big but it is proportional to the average pot squared and this is huge if HU hands are also involved.
So we could use this as a really rough estimate. Playing styles finish distributions etc. would alter it but it is the best estimate I have (This is a bit like saying that full ring cash variance for bb/100 is about 80
).
In 3000 games I have about 11000 qualifying allins (pre-river with no possible future action), so per 1000 games I expect to see 3667 of these hands.
per 1000 games the variance of these is: 3667 * 20000000 = 73340000000
So the standard deviation of 1000 games is: Sqrt(73340000000) = 270814
The mean you would expect to have is the value of the adjusted figure for 1000 games and approximately 68% of the time I would expect to see the actual to be +/- 1 sd ie, +/- 270814 from this expected value.
Or in other words for every 1000 games played, roughly 15% of the time I would expect to be 270814 below expectation, and 15% of the time 270814 above.
This is all very rough and ready.
There isn't much point to analyzing all the hands as chip values vary greatly depending on where in the tournament you are.
If you avoid looking at the top 5 or 6 spots most of the prize money is still in play and you could say a starting stack is still worth roughly the same value as it had when you bought in, so 1500 chips = ~0.9 * a BI. Well a bit less because some prizes, 5th and 6th here, have been paid out however most of the hands will have been pre prize payouts so more biased to this 0.9 * a BI (the 0.9 as rake is taken out).
So to see a more useful view it is a bit better to filter for number of players, perhaps >= 5
It is still early days for my variance knowledge of these tournament allin points and so I might be completely off but you can't say I didn't try to give people answers.