As gross as it seems it is totally standard.

Take some time and have a scroll through the following threads to get an idea of how much you can run under EV

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...7/index21.html

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...9/index25.html

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...012-a-1167302/

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...teaks-1400143/

This is still quite reasonable and not too unusual.
There is lots more luck involved in poker than just the allin section although this part can be very noticeable and is worth some knowledge and understanding.

You can roughly calculate how much your actual results will spread out by using a Normal/Gaussian model for the results and with your ones shown they seems to me to be well inside a 95% confidence level, ie, it's no unusual.

I would suspect your current 'real' roi is probably somewhere in between the ones suggested by the red line and the green, (11.5% and 4%).
If your 'real' roi for these 1150 games was 8%, you would expect your results with 95% confidence to have a spread of 1% to 15%.
If you looked at 100's of blocks of 1150 games you would expect 1 in 20 to show up outside of this 1% to 15% range (with an 8% roi).

I should also point out that this is really a MttSng forum and many of the people here are well hardened to large swings, the ones at STTs are quite small to us, 500+ downswings aren't that unusual at 180's but are at STTs. If you do take up big fields be careful of BRM and expect some pretty bad runs.

Thank you for your replies. I am switching to 18mans as soon as i get out of this hole
Btw those threads, Meca and jdawg are hypers grinders, definitely much more swings there than bare turbos, so not worth mentioning. abarone and gun are sickos and thanks for pointing out, will go through those threads.

Hello, guys! Im looking for 45man micro/low limits sng mates. Please PM me with skype details.

GL

Hello guys I was wondering how many games per month you make on 3r 180man turbo.

Hello to the community,

First off, this thread isn't meant to complain about variance.
I've been grinding Micro MttSNGs as well as Micro MTTs for the past month trying to get better at identifying hand ranges as well as push/fold ranges.

Unfortunatly, I wasn't able to get to be a winner at these stages.
I've barely been able to break even, thanks to 2 MTT Wins.

So I figured I'd make a thread, explaining what I do and what I grind and how, to see if anyone had any constructive comments about what I could do better/differently so here it is :

Bankroll Management & Games :
I have about 230$ of bankroll right now. It goes a little lower or a little higher everyday, but seems to be stuck around that amount. With that amount, I grind the 1.50$ 45-mans, 1$ 90-mans, and used to grind the 1$ hyper 180-mans. I stopped those because I figured variance was really high in them. I did try the 2.50$ 180-mans about 25 times, but I always end up having a bad session when I try them and end up going down in my bankroll. I also mix-in all the micro MTTs available from 0.55$ to 2.20$, and a few Satellites to the Hot 5.50$, 7.50$, 11$ and 22$ (again buy-ins between 0.55$ and 2.20$)

Session Setup :
A basic session for me lasts between 2 and 3 hours. I usually grind the equivalent of 30$ of games (with a BR of 150$+) and I was planning to grind 40$ of games when I get to a BR of 300$.
So out of that 30$ of games, I usually load up 12 45-mans, 4 90/180-mans and about 4 MTTs/Satellites
Loading all those games takes about 45min at peak times, 1hour at normal times and 2hours at downtimes. Once I use that 30$ I let myself play with, I stop and play everything down to the end.
In term of Multi-Tabling, in average I have between 12 and 14 tables running, with peaks at 18. I stack all of them on the same square, while taking the important tables around the main stack.

Software Setup :
I basically use every known software through my grinding : Holdem Manager 2 for the HUD stats, Table Ninja to manage all those tables and the auto-bet sizings.
I also use Stars Helper to help me change my stack in BB, and use a few HUDs from it as well.


I watched about every single video from YugiohPro on Deucescracked.com, at a rate of 2 to 4 hours ago. Also watched a few others.
I know most of my push/fold spots, but when I'm not certain, I check out this chart : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...hl=en_US#gid=3

So this is it, just wandering if anyone has any recommandations or comments about the way I play it, maybe just by discussing it I'll be able to find some things I'm doing wrong.

Thanks in advance !

Correction : **videos from YugiohPro at a rate of 2 to 4 hours a day**.

Also forgot to add, in term of results right now I'm seeing :

180-mans : Disastrous, worst game I have, No 1st or 2nd place in 137 games between 0.50$ and 2.50$

90-mans : Pretty good, holding a ROI of 10%-ish over a (small) sample of 145 games

45-mans : Ran bad at start, but I managed to keep a 8%-ish ROI over 300 games in the past 14 days.

MTTs : Running pretty good in those, got a 3rd place in a 0.82$ 1000plyr field for 80$ and a 2nd in a NLO8 2.20$ 350plyr field for 113$ so got a ROI of 95% but obviously on a very small sample (112 games)

Satellites : Break-even-ish I would say, but I just started those recently.


Looking foward to comments !

Correction : **MTT Roi is more like 200% since my HM2 version doesn't include Omaha**

I also wanted to add a few follow-up questions to my initial post :

1 - Is my 30$/230$ BR per session enough volume to work with, or should I try to get a 40-50$ session everytime ?

2 - Is my "stack" multi-table setup with important tables outside the optimal way to multi-table between 15 and 20 games ?

3 - This one is more directed towards the 180-mans.. What makes it so much different between those and the 45/90 mans ? It seems weird that I can't get a win in those 180 but get multiple ones in the other twos ? Obviously the variance is bigger, but shouldn't I see at least 1 up before all the downs ?

Here's my two cents
I would lower the games to around 6-8 along with simplifying what your playing maybe just 90 mans and either 45s or 180s. This will allow you to start seeing spots each of the field sizes plays differently than the other. I think your 30 buyin sessions are fine for now but, you will need to realize to make good money on sngs you need to be able to grind 5+ hr sessions. I usually am around 15-20 games I prefer tileing all my tables so I can see action. There really isn't all that much different between 90s and 180s unless PSKO (progressive super knock outs). As for 45 mans theres a big differnce with knowing icm and the importance of cashing with 45 mans.

Be a bit careful of tables, they are great to get you started but you do have to do the work and develop a sense for a good range.

I think the Jennifear ones are fine as a starter but seem very tight to me - do some work on this yourself, preferably try working one or two SB vs BB clashes out by hand but use an icm tool for ease. Doing one or two yourself will help you understand where the value is coming from.

If with 10bb and say 0.8bb of total antes I put a BB on a call range of 35% (nowhere near the Nash but closer to reality) I can push much wider than the table suggests and also I would need to judge if a raise/call, raise/fold line is a better bet. What range do you think players are calling with from the BB vs a 10bb SB on average in your games?

Also you do have to try to decide what the villain is like and make some sort of adjustment.
I would also be careful with big fields as it they are high variance and this means you can't tell from any small sample of results if you are playing fine. 45s are a decent compromise but even so you do need a lot to really tell anything, you need 1000 of these to get a rough +/-10% roi confidence, any change you make to your game takes a while to show up clearly.

Do plenty of work and keep trying to improve.

Thank you for your opinion. I might try to get back down to 6-8 tables at a time like I used to do. Would you recommend to start loading up some tables up to 8, and then load one up everytime I bust out of one ? Until i get to the 30$ total session ? In terms of simplifying, it's kind of impossible to only grind 90-mans since the volume at 1$ is way too low. Only games I could really grind alone would either be the 1.50$ 45-mans or the 2.50$ 180-mans, although those scare me since they hurt my bankroll everytime lol.
About the 5$ 90-mans PSKO, since those generally have less variance (since you make money from the KOs and the Wins), at what bankroll should I try those out ? I always assumed 400$ would be too risky in term of BRM. Am I right ?


Yeah I do indeed consider that one of my leaks might be that I don't do enough work with ICMizer.
I'll try those SB vs BB clashes as you are talking about, since I believe in my games, I would put a BB on a call range of 29-30%.
I also believe that one of my leaks would be finding the bests spots to raise-fold compared to pushing. Most of the times i raise-call against shortstacks the big stacks gets in and makes it a raise-fold.
And I do put villains in different categories, based on HUD stats and reads, using the color-coding system. My basic categories are : Rock - Tight Passive - Tight Aggressive - Loos-ish Passive - Loos-ish Aggressive - Loose Passive - Loose Aggressive - Fish - Crazy Guy. Do those categories look okay or should I use some other kinds ?
Again thanks for your comment, looking foward to more advices or discussions !

can someone link me to a 9 man sng strat thread or study group im going to deposit $1000 for $10 -9 man sngs Ill get a deposit bonus to match so ill have $2000 a roll for $20 sngs,, but im not sure if i can beat them, im playing on a hudless site and would like basic strat and advice,,tx

im depositing $1000 to play $10 sngs the site im on does not have huds can anyone point me to basic icm /sng strategy and reasonable win rates at this level assume i cant use a hud ///please add any push fold chart in response.... my biggest issue is beginning play and bubble play, the point of the bubble where everyone basically has the same stack size i cant tell if im too loose or too tght vs opponents....

Ok 8 players at the table and 10% antes, with a 10.1bb rel stack and 70% folds puts 23o as nicely +ve chip-wise (I do often screw up the calcs so you can check this.)
Folding 32o:
will leave you with a stack of 10.1 - 0.5 = 9.6bb, can use this as the baseline to see how much more or less shoving gives compared to this.
Shoving 32o:
70% of time you pick up 1.5 + 0.8 bb's = 2.3bb extra
30% of the time you have 23o face a 30% range (gives 23o ~29% hand equity vs 44+,A2s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A2o+,K8o+,QTo+,JTo)

So 30% of time the final pot = 10 + 10 + 0.8 = 20.8bb
We get back 0.29 * 20.8 = 6.0

From the fold we get 10.1 + 2.3 = 12.4

So our stack becomes 12.4bb 70% of time and 6.0 30% of the time
Our expected stack = (12.4 * 0.7) + (0.3 * 6.0) = 10.48

So shoving 32o earns you (10.48 - 9.6) = 0.88bbs

So blindly following the chart would have you pushing 56.6% in this situation, this is fine in some cases but often there isn't even a problem in pushing 100%. It depends on the calls and charts don't capture this too well. (note you can also try to have raise/folds and raise/call lines in these cases).

I should point out that I am not really a great expert anyway and I also struggle along. If this seems to work for you then keep doing it. I tend to try to develop a roughly average range for any player in a situation as a yardstick and try to adjust this range with reads, then decide how this difference should change my move, it's easy to say

lol and now down to 48 BI downswing. I'm stopping playing until I study more. I definitly do something wrong there.

I gotta find a way to study more efficiently. any suggestions ?

Yeah I see how the calling range can change all the shoving range in the first place. I'll try to study more those kind of spots.

im actually curious to know if you just one tabled a 180 man and only a 180 man at different times, how well you would do.For it to have your undivided attention and intuition.

I donno what the results would be, but wouldn't that be defeating the "beat the variance with volume" principle ? I feel like one-tabling a 180-man is like saying to variance to come and ruin me :P

Anyhow now that I'm back down to 190$ of BR I'm completely taking out the 2.50$ 180s of my sessions for BRM reasons.

Gonna try to review my games with ICMizer before I come back to the tables, but I'm not sure what's the best setup to review my games.. I was thinking of 2 methods :

1st : Scroll through every hand of a session in HM2, marking the important ones and then copying them all to ICMizer.

or

2nd : Taking every single game one by one, loading it in a replayer and reviewing every hand one-by-one as well as copying the questionnable spots in ICMizer.

Any suggestions around that ?

I am not sure if you think volume will beat variance here or not but I think as poker players we should try to be a bit better in our use of the word variance. It is difficult to know what many posts are really aiming at, I think we should try to restrict variance to it's mathematical definition.
By "beat the variance with volume" is this to mean more volume, even with a reduced roi, means a smoother ride? If so this is false.
Often people talking about 'variance' are actually talking about bad luck, poor runs, or downswings and this isn't variance, variance is a useful tool helpful in predicting these frequencies though.
A hypothetical case, 2 players:
player1 plays 5 concurrent $2.5 tables at earning $x per hour
player2 plays one $2.5 table but still earns $x per hour.
Both earn the same over time but player1 has more of a gamble in earnings, a much wider spread will happen over the same time period ie, higher variance. The results will hit the same average or mean but the shape of likely outcomes has the one tabler with a much closer spread, the other can get either hit badly or win great depending on luck. Here's a graph to show:

Also of note is that the 5 tabler will have bigger swings that take physically more clock hours to overcome, this may seem counter intuitive to many.
It is best to optimise your win-rate per hour but if your bankroll is small then over multi-tabling can cause a problem.

Hi guys!

I've started to play this week and after few hands (1252 hands) I'd noticed this divergence:

My EV/100 = 12,73
My bb/100 = 6,58
My ROI = -58,23

My understanding is : I'm playing correctly, with EV+ decisions, but the villains are running better, I'm facing Coolers and so on...

Is that correct?

How can I correct this?

I know that the number of hands is not the ideal. But this mean something.



Thank

1,252 hands its like a handfull of MTTSNGs played, it means NOTHING

I have recently started playing MTT SNGs. I would like to know if they are going to be profitable for me. Unfortunately, HEM has a hard time with them as it records final tables differently than the rest.

My question is:

Is EV bb/100 the best stat to use in this case?

Are there other stats or methods I should use?

I realize that EV is just one part of variance, but it is the one that is easiest to measure. I feel like I have

Thanks

Thanks for you reply!

I understand what you said bout 1200 hand do not mean nothing. I agree with it in parts.

Last week I had two very interesting days:

Day 1, 3360 hands = ROI 114,8% . Such a good session, right?
(next day)
Day 2, 2254 hands = ROI -58,54. A bad one.

What I'm trying to say is that 1000 hands can show the way we are.

Variance? I'll understand as variance if I had a ROI in day 1 like 40%, and day 2 like 15%. The day 2 cost me 50% of my Day 1 profit.

Don't you agree?

There is some (a tons of) leaks on my game and I'm building up a bank roll. I can't suffer the variance like it is. (Nobody wants at all, I know)

I'd wanna use the HM reports to find surgically find and correct my leaks.

Any tip will be more than welcome!

50 buyin+ downswings are common in MTTSNGs, and everyone gets them no matter how well you play. More players means more money for top finishers and more variance.

BB/100 does not tell you much because chips won in later game matters a lot more (when you have fewer BBs and are playing for more chips).

You could win an all-in first hand to win 75BB and it could be worth as much as a 1BB pot later in the tournament.

Also chips does not directly equal money unless it's a winner-take-all structure.

You can experiment with this to see how big variance can be: http://pokerdope.com/tournament-variance-calculator/

One of the best ways to reduce downswings due to variance is to increase your winrate / edge. By playing one table with all you got you will have a higher edge than multitabling.

But the real question to ask is 'how do I increase my hourly rate?'.