Guys sorry if this is the wrong thread but lately I've been grinding $1 180man Hyper Turbos SNG and I've gone from $100 up to about $450 in about 2000 games. Then I decided to go up at the $2.5 180 man turbos and gone down to $300 which is 60 buy-ins or $150 downswing. I've reviewed the way I played them and don't see any huge problems but either these $2.5 180mans are super hard to beat or I'm running on very bad variance at the moment. Either way I would love it if you guys shared whether or not you've expirienced such great loss at these SNG's because I'm starting to think they require at least $600 bankroll

I am in the midst of a 300 BI downswing, so 60BI swing is nothing unusual.

How many games have u been dowswinging? My exp with 2.5 180s was pretty horrible but I later realized I rushed it a little bit, on these games you need a higher sample due to higher variance IMO. Would say you can expect downswing or at least BE 2k games? 2.5k?

I've played about only 70 games so far, cashed in about 10 of them and only once got to the final table but still got knocked out 9th. I'm just wondering if this happens often enough to other players because as I reviewed my style of play I don't see any huge errors that I've made. So it should mean that either I'm on a big downswing, which is out of anyone's control, or that these 2.50$ 180man turbos have a lot of regular grinders which makes it much harder to beat.

Lol, 70 games (with all respect) is nothing, anything can happen in such a small sample. Really, anything. Id say that a good sample for 2.5s is at least 2.5k games.

am also having a huge downswing atm in 180s, I was searching for some info about how possible is an X-buy ins downswing given Y ROI% , anyone can help with that? I remember I ve seen this graph arround posted on 2p2 but I dont seem able to find it atm. Thanx.

I have done some graphs for downswing probabilities given various roi's at various SnG or MTT sizes and these can be found through this link page.
http://www.deucescracked.com/blogs/b...ability-Graphs

75 buyins for the 180man, 3.5r and 8 with $600+, everytime you get down, start playing 2.5

thats exactly what I was searching for, thanx a lot.

Hello,

What bankroll management do you recommend for SNG 180man(8-15$) 90man(5-11$ PK) 45man - (7$). I play this SNG mixed

My account is PsYHoPaYa, i have 15%-20% ROI for little sample - 1k tournaments for every format.

I got $4300 bankroll when i should drop or up the limits. Now i have 4K$ (draw each month $ 500) And charging only 2-3 tournament 15 man $ 180 for session.

For those faimilar with the Pokerdope variance calculator...How do we run simulations for KO and PKO MTTSNGs? Do we add the bounty to the buy in? How to take into account the impact that turbos and non turbos formats has on variance?

The speed of the game doesn't matter. Variance is a function of ROI.

Of course the faster the game the lower the ROI the higher the variance.

But fundamentally ROI is the only thing that matters.

This is not quite right, variance is mostly governed by the payout structure and to a small extent the finish distribution. If roi goes up typically the variance also goes up (very slightly) with it and the larger the field or deeper structure the higher the variance. It is true that the speed won't effect the variance.
I think but don't know for sure that the knock out payouts will act to lower the variance overall, but not excessively, effectively producing a slight smoothing effect on your returns.
For BRM I would consider using the same payout structure as the freeze outs to judge by, I doubt if this would be very far off.
The speed of the tournament doesn't really affect the variance at all but obviously a slower speed may allow an increase of roi (and maybe a very, very slight increase in variance).

People often confuse variance with downswings or bad luck and this isn't really the case. If you measured the variance found in a thousand 180's when you were running bad and from 1000 games where you run like a god the variance will be roughly the same.
Increase in skill will improve roi and this will protect from long heavy downswings (where you drop below a 'high water' mark) but the variance seen in your results is mostly from the payout structure.

any clue about what is considered as a decent ROI in turbo 18man these days? like what ROI most of regs have or whats the top roi in these atm(like last 12 months) ?

Ok so I have a fairly large sample size in the 25c 45man sng on stars, 3546 played and an ROI of 27%.
It's good for me in that I no longer deposit but I have blown my bankroll down to $10 multiple times playing games I have no business being in (I'm somewhat proud of the fact I've never totally tilted it off to the point of re-depositing). I have a live cash game background and this is the first online game I have ever beaten (although I have never made a real considered effort purely because I just believed all the brainiest math students linger online and will just crush me!! So I kinda stayed a serious but recreational guy)

Given my background playing live cash it's hard for me to think past just getting it in good vs a range,(I'm not really pushing small edges) which works fine in the 25c games but will perhaps not work in the levels above or in larger field tournaments or turbo/hyper games, I guess what I'm saying is that I'm not versed in the concepts of ICM or push fold strategy.

Where do you guys think I should go from here? Currently I have a $53 bankroll. Any good links or suggestions on what I should be learning would be greatly appreciated! Thanks!!

50c games I guess. The 45 man ones fill up at any hour of the day, the 180s I recommend playing at peak times since they load pretty slow. There's also the 27c/55c mtts that run all day (you could also add 82c one if you feel comfortable). Then there's the hot 55c mtt @ 23:45 EET. There's the hot 1.10, 2.20, 3.30, 4.40, for which you can qualify via sattelites, they all run morning to afternoon. What you have to consider is that the 50c level is a turbo level, so I'd recommend using smgwizard/icmizer/holdem resources to improve push/fold and ICM.

Hi all, i am planning to play regular speed mtt sng's.

2.50 - 90man
3.50 - 27 and 45 man
4.50 - 180 man

I will mix them up. Playing 12 tables at the same time.

Any suggestion what bankroll would be enough for this?

And would you actually advise turbo's over regular speeds?

^ It depends what your ROI is, but based on averages: The average ROI for the whole player pool is about -10%, so if you want to play around 70 per day with an average buy-in of $3.50 you need to be willing to deposit about $700 per month.

I would advise you to play what you enjoy most and what allows you to work on the weak spots in your game.

Thanks for ur advice, I will try $700 then.

Hi all fellow grinders, how standard is this in 9mans? Primarily 9mans with a little 45mans for funs on the side. I must note that i have another 1k games in my other database, where i run 80bis under EV last month(endud up 30-40bi still if i remember right).
Is this completely normal or am i doing something very wrong?
I mean i have played 3k~ish games last 2 months or so and i've had a 1k basically BE stretch, where i ran 80~ BI under EV and now im starting to lose and running 50~bi under EV.
Asking this is to get the idea if i should do what im doing or should just move on.

Graph for the 50bi under is here, can post 80bi under EV in a few days if requested.

its normal. Dont worry. Focus on getting better at the game.

tyvm sir.

if you have any other questions just post, and i will try to help u.

Thanks, so this is the laptop graph, in my pc im 60bi under ev and this is 90+, is this really that normal? I mean, it's 9mans, shouldn't have much of a variance afaik..