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ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

01-30-2015 , 08:01 AM
Very complicated! :-) But whatever works. I dont think you need so much science to achieve the same goals though. OP just start taking some shots and report back! We are waiting.

Just wanted to comment on the "do something else" stuff although it probably has no relevance to OP. I also was finding if I had 30 minutes I'd go play zoom or something else just to kill time and was losing money in those games. So now am self banned from all games except those I actually target (you can do this in the client). Now if I have 30 minutes free for poker my only option is review and SNGWiz quizzes....
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
01-30-2015 , 12:09 PM
A lot of my advice if going to depend on your bankroll, whether or not you play on your dime/are backed, and your comfort with these games.

In my experience, there is a big difference in skill level between 2.50s and 8s, and 3rs are even tougher. In both 8s and 3rs I went on a downswing before I adjusted. Not saying that will be the case for you, but I would just say to prepare for the worst so you aren't discouraged when you don't win one right away.

The best thing to do (IF you have the bankroll, and I would recommend $1400+ for this), is play 60-70% 2.50s and fill the rest of your grind with 8s. The idea here is that you will continue to win at 2.50s until you get your confidence up in the 8s and ship a couple.

Once your bankroll is > $2200, you can start mixing in 3rs, but you need to be careful, 3rs are actually about a $10 ABI, and during my usual grind I often end up double rebuying more than once in these so actual ABI is going to be higher again if you're playing them correctly.

GL!
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
01-31-2015 , 07:45 AM
was wondering if ROIs are higher in the 8$ 180man or in the 3+r ... anyone has a clue about that?
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
01-31-2015 , 12:02 PM
You are most likely running good, but you probably also have a good enough grasp on how to play to be at least BE in higher buyins.

Just be aware that you can always hit a bad stretch when you take a shot. If you're fine with potentially losing a significant portion of your BR, go ahead.

What I'd recommend is to make 10% of your daily volume be 3.5R. Eventually you'll bink a few and then you can increase it to 20% and so on until you move up for good.

It's a better approach than to diving in head first. Patience is key.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
01-31-2015 , 07:23 PM
Move up.

My advice to you is don't be afraid to lose. You will lose a lot playing in these high variance SNGs, and you have to learn to accept and deal with that. You might not cash 1/100 games. It can be frustrating and make you play scared. You will lose money if you play scared.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
02-06-2015 , 05:42 AM
Hi, I play $8 180's generally and I have a question, from a report i found on the most profitable $8 and $15 180 players 2013 and 2014 and the average ROI was like 10/15??? Iv seen a lot of people saying like up to even 40% ROI long term in these is achievable, so is it? (I understand that by multi-tabling you sacrifice a fair amount of edge but i didn't think 3X potential edge sacrifice!) Any information would be appreciated.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
02-24-2015 , 02:03 PM
Hi guys,
I am just after some advice, so i have started grinding away the 45man sng's on Stars with some success. $25 - $38 at the minute, I don't have tracking software so don't know how many games that is over.

But I was wondering what you would suggest for me taking 'shots' at the $0.50 tournaments and $1 tournaments. Suggestions. I thin I should maintain the 100 buy ins for $0.25 but beyond that I am not sure how to structure it?

Any help woud be great,

Cheers.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
02-24-2015 , 03:41 PM
My strategy is always play the level above the one for which you have at least 100 buy-ins. If you are a regular speed guy the next level after 25 cents is 1 dollar so you switch to that when you have at least $25. After $100 you switch to $3.50s. You need to insta-move down as soon as you drop below these limits though.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
02-24-2015 , 07:38 PM
Thanks for the advice. I was thinking; this may be ware ellaborate than necesarry but here me out;

- Bankroll at the minute is $40. So i will select the number of games per night I want to play, generally maybe 20.
- So playing 25cents, then 50 cents turbos (I am fine with turbos) then I will play 20*(25/40) 25 cents games and 20*(15/40) games at 50 cents so it is all relative and keeps my cushion, I think this way will prevent me from leveling my bankroll if I struggle at the turbo struction and I could therefore move to $1 if necesarry.

So from that I would play 13 25 cents games and 7 50 cents games. (because it is twice the stake its just half the number of 25cents game for the 50cents)

Do you think there is any merit behind this?
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
02-24-2015 , 07:44 PM
Let number of games = G

G(100BI/Bankroll) + G((Bankroll - 100BI)/Bankroll) = Total Games

G(100BI/Bankroll) = Number of standard games to play before fully sustainable at next shot.

G((Bankroll - 100BI)/Bankroll) = Number of games to take shots at when progressing to next level.

This is only really telling me what I can spare isn't it though?
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
02-26-2015 , 06:24 PM
Looking for any tricks that can maximize volume.

I can comfortably play for 8+ hours cascading ~30 tables with:
-a lowered resolution (4:3 on a widescreen monitor) that shows black bars so i can lower the amount of mouse movements
-tableninja (auto-reg, auto-betsizing, etc)
-f.lux (lower the monitor's blue lighting so I can grind for hours)

I tried stacking tables but it doesn't work well for me.

Would anyone like to share?
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
02-26-2015 , 08:56 PM
How many games you can play per day ~20 tabling for 5 hours? I might move from cash to mttsng/mtt so just wondering if it's worth it because don't want to lose supernova etc.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-04-2015 , 03:17 PM
Hello guys, i have a question regarding supernova. I grind 7 dollars 45 man and 8 dollars 180 man sit and goes, and i play 12 tables at a time. If i play more tables than that my game hurts, so i have kind of settled down on 12 tables for now.

My dream is to reach supernova status and i wonder if that is even possible or is it a waste of time even thinking of it for me? I see many 7 and 8 dollar grinders having supernova status, but i guess they play 20 tables at a time and even more?

Highest VIP status i had before is platinum star.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-04-2015 , 05:33 PM
The question is basically whether you can pay $18K rake in one calendar year, or $350 per week. I don't know how much the rake is at that level but I'd guess approx 400 tournaments per week would be enough. It's possible but you'd need to do it as a fulltime job.

VIP programs may change. I'd say improving your ROI is a surer way of profiting than trying to get discounts on the rake.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-04-2015 , 09:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
The question is basically whether you can pay $18K rake in one calendar year, or $350 per week. I don't know how much the rake is at that level but I'd guess approx 400 tournaments per week would be enough. It's possible but you'd need to do it as a fulltime job.

VIP programs may change. I'd say improving your ROI is a surer way of profiting than trying to get discounts on the rake.
Yeah that sounds a bit heavy. Guess i need to be able playing on the 15$ level if i want a realistic chance at getting supernova.

So your advice is good. Focus on grinding and building roll.

Sent from my LG-D855 using 2+2 Forums
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-07-2015 , 02:47 PM
Hi!
guys, what game's should i play with br 400$, should i play only SNGMTT or MTT for 1-3$ also?
Thank you for help!
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-07-2015 , 07:50 PM
Hey guys. I'm fairly new to this, and i need some advice. I've been playing 0,50$ 45,90 and 180 players. For instance, today i played and i had this terrible result (see the 0,50$):



This is the results of this year.



I know the sample isn't big, but at this stakes... does this mean i'm soo bad that i don't even beat 0,50$?

How can i be sure i'm playing well?

Thanks guys.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-08-2015 , 07:10 AM
The sample size is small, but if I had to guess, I'd say 50 cents is about the point at which you have has many MTTSNG players below you as above you so it's not an incredibly low level. Most people don't beat the games and especially not right away. Get better by posting hands and listening to advice.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-08-2015 , 07:23 AM
@the1st - With my own BR strategy I would play $6 reg speeds with that bankroll, dropping to $3.50 reg speeds when I went below $350. Most people go with a 100 BI rule.

The right games depend how much you want to deposit per month, how much time you have to play and what you enjoy playing.

Some things to think about:

I don't get to play very often so its hard for me to book a winning week in MTTs, but in MTTSNGs that happens all the time because of the smaller fields. It's also about how that makes you feel rather than just a financial calculation.

The average performance of the field is about minus 10% per tournament (the difference between total prizes and total entry fees for any given tournament). If you play at a level where you are financially break-even, i.e. 10% ahead of the field, you will be playing with people who are worse than you and won't get better quickly. If you make regular small deposits like $50 per month then you will find your BRM - whatever it is - will put you into games where you are more evenly matched with the opposition because the deposits offset the underlay in the prize pool.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-08-2015 , 02:00 PM
what? with 400$ play SNG 6$? MTT?
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-08-2015 , 03:12 PM
Yep. but down to $3.50 if you get to $350. I always have at least 100 buy-ins for the level below the one I'm in. You need to be willing to insta move down if you no longer do though.

Those are MTTSNGs. not MTTs BTW.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-08-2015 , 09:17 PM
Hey guys,

can anyone explain to me the difference between the "chip chart" and "bb chart" in PT4? I just started playing MTTSnGs and noticed (and heard from many) that the cnet adjusted chart is waaaay off at MTT-SnGs because Pokertracker cant calculate it. e.g. I do have over 100% EVroi, which is ofc not true. But the BB Chart and Chip chart is supposed to be correct as I have learned.

But what does that difference mean:

Chips:


BBs:


Does it mean I am just flipping all the time (according to the chip chart and "Net Expected Chips won") or does it mean i am push-folding quite okay since the bb chart goes straight up?

Thanks a lot, i really don't get it.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-14-2015 , 06:22 PM
Hey, so my question is what roi i can expect at this level, i'm an ok player, i make too many mistakes, but i study, not a lot, i make revisions of like 15 tournaments a week, i have some idea of push and fold ranges in cEV, talking about icm is different, i use some softwares to train, but is deffinetly my weak spot, my postflop play is not bad.
So thats all!!! Thx!!!!
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-14-2015 , 06:52 PM
If you are ok, i.e. average relative to the field, then you can expect an ROI of minus 10 percent.

If you get better they are definitely beatable though, although if you're like most people you'll probably move up when you start beating them and before you really start smashing them so it depends on you and what you want really.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-18-2015 , 05:12 AM
Little tip for the grinders out there: i recently discovered how soft the 5 dollar 90 mann knockout turbos are compared to other games at similar stakes.

I had avoided those for some time because knockout prizes are not my fav, but when i see how soft the field is in these things i am going to play them more in the future. Compared to for example 3,50 or 7 dollar 45 manns turbos i cant believe how soft the 90 mann turbos are. Many players are just unbeliveable bad.

I dunno, maybe i was just lucky and got into some particularly soft, but check it out guys and see what you think.
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