I use Poker Copilot for Mac which I believe is the equivalent of HM for windows. I'm not sure how it works but there is a tab which shows my All in equity in Tournament chips and also in BB.

Usually All-in EV is calculated incorectly for MTTs.

For example this is my

I don't know how well your program calculates it.

Assuming all the info I provided is accurate, do you have any advice?

I think I'll start playing mttsngs but I'm not sure if I'm even winning player atm? Can you know just from 40 games sample if you are just running bad or just bad player? I got one or two FTs in 40 games @2.5 180s which is really bad I think or can it just be runbad?

My AIEV on bbs were:

EV WON : 240 bb
WON: 80bb

do those graphs tell anything or?

Unfortunately, it is impossible to tell anything from a sample that small

The best advice I can give you is to keep playing to build a bigger sample, but if there is any hands you feel you are struggling with in the meantime post them in the MTTSNG forum for some help

yung you won't be able to tell anything at all from a 40 game sample size… Around the 2000-3000 game mark will you be able to tell roughly how your doing. I believe its been posted here that at 10000 games for 180s you'll have a good idea of your true roi.

What's a small but still pretty decent sample size of 45-man turbos for when you can legitimately guesstimate your ROI?

hi there. i play 45 man turbos on pstars;
my stats are: vpp/pfr/3bet 18/17/8


on this graph, is this a downswing?
which line should i use to know if i play bad/run bad, the yellow or the red one? , please help

Hey guys,

Ive been struggling at my first attempt at decent volume at the $2.50 180's. I figured maybe posting some of my stats here would enable someone to give me a few pointers..? Any type of feedback is appreciated!

http://tinypic.com/r/112fthh/8
http://tinypic.com/r/2ryisra/8
http://tinypic.com/r/345hjxi/8
http://tinypic.com/r/2qvtc07/8

I've been reviewing tons of spots in ICMizer and it seems my ranges are still a bit off. In some spots my ranges are pretty spot on, but in some spots I'm so far off. Esp ICM still seems to be terrible. I also notice I've been getting a lot of 5-7th place finishes. I have been pretty unlucky in my FT all-ins, but still it seems sorta obvious I might have some leaks when it comes to these situations.

would say 1000/1500 would give you a reasonable idea if you beat them.

To determine roi with any real confidence I would say 4-5k

First of all, take a look of my 18man graph:



Why do you reckon I find it so hard to steadily increase my earnings? I dont think that much variance is normal for this game type. Even though there might be some variance involved with 20k tourneys I should have won more. I feel like I self complot against me and whenever Im winning I do something/change something to lose again, then I regain confidence, regain my A-Game but the loop continues to perpetuate and I cant seem to beat it steadily for good!!

I think my game is somewhat ok, not perfect ofc, but Im a winning player and Ive been coached by some really good regs, which makes it more frustrating because I feel I have everything I need to beat this game but still cant elevate for good!

Any hints on what this might be? Any similar experiences to share?

Thanks in advance!

2.5s are pure cancer. Too much randomness and i belive there is no alternatives so yeah GL man.

Hi all,

To be honest, it think it's beatable. I won't lie, my sample is small but still, with 3k profit over 715 games I can safely assume that I'm a winning player at the 2.50 180 turbo's.

I analyze every session, no exceptions made. This helps me a lot for to find potential leaks. My biggest advise.. Push push raise and push again. Don't wait for the KK+ goodies.

What do you think guys?

hi, I play these games too and my biggest breakeven streak is also about 300 games.. so i wouldnt think too much of it.. just keep playing.
(i never look at the yellow or redlines in mtts/sng)

your stats seem fine too me, but they are also not that important because at the later level you should ramp up agression anyways..
maybe your ITM is a bit low.. i dunno what other regs have here.. mine is at about 20%

its a nice graph :P but a ROI of 170% isnt exactly retainable
upswings in these games are pretty awesome, but i doubt you can keep that up for another 1k games..

Haha, it would be epic though!! Just kidding!
I know I won't! I had a really sick run the first 250 games which explains this ROI. after that I ran (and still do) aprox. 45%.

My only problem is that I'm still afraid to move up to the 3,50R. I tried the 4.50 but it's really too slow! besides that, 2,50 has greater traffic and I know exactly who is the reg and the recreational player.

yeah the first 250 looks just insane

Argument with a friend:

The pt4 orange line is not that reliable for mttsngs but the smaller the player field, the more accurate it is. ( more accurate for 18s than 45s).

Correct?

To calculate EV u have to know stack size of every player on sng. Ignore EV line unless u play STT. And yes it should be more accurate smaller the field but still not enaugh to even look at it. cEV and bb/100 EV is what u should look at plating MTT.

So I've got around 30% ROI over a smallish sample of 2,000 games at the $2.5 180man SNGs. Is it time I can move up to the $3.5+r or $8 180mans? I've played about 100 games of these so far with only 1 deep run. Are these games a lot harder than the 2.5s? The average ability on sharkscope is quite significant and there are a lot more regs taking notes etc so my ABC style in the $2.5s might not be so effective? How do I know when I can move up?

my $2.5 180man graph : http://gyazo.com/12d813b287d818856b5f382f4b00feb9

what i would do is mix some 8s in with your regular 2.5 grind. So if you played 10 tables start with 2-3 8s with 7-8 2.5s to build a sample size.. hopefully your success continues in the 8s and you can slowly mix more in then after that maybe do 8s and 3.5s or just go straight to 3.5s

It is hard to say and best to check for other threads on BRM and how to apply it well. always try to think it out and use common sense.

Your 30% roi is great but a small sample but you will have built up a decent roll if you haven't extracted much or blew it on cash PLO or something.

You can lever your bankroll more if you are willing to easily jump down if things go wrong.

The best strategy is different for different players, some are ok just mixing games others get overly anxious about the high value ones and don't play their best.

180's do need a large BR and lets say your real roi at the $2.50 ones was really only 20% and perhaps at the next level $8 you could reasonably expect 10% I would jump up to all $8's at perhaps at $1400 and then fall back down to the $2.50 at about $1000. This allows for about a 50BI loss or cushion at this $8 level, usually you should cash in some so it's never as bad as just 50 games and should be enough to try to get your $8 eye in. In fact you should win at 10% but things very often don't go to plan

This may seem like a large BR to keep at the $2.50 but things can easily go wrong and jumping to a new level ~3x the cost can be hard.

If you are happy mixing levels it is easy to keep throwing in a few games and hopefully eventually scoring enough to play all $8's.

Think it all through and find an approach that works for you.

2000 games isn't a sample, you could be running hot

use strict BRM, meaning you need a huge roll to play 180's comfortably

damn, is the jump really $2.50 to $8? I expect a huge difference between these levels, eg skill, # of regs, etc

I don't play 180's, so follow comments already made

I agree with the guys about mixing in higher games. It doesnt have to be a clean step up. If you playing 16 tables for example just play half $2.50s and half whatever you choose to move to (the 8's or the rebuys).

I dont see a reason to be overly conservative and dont worry about sample size issues. 2000 games / 30% ROI - its enough to assume you doing a lot right even if some people want to point out that statistically its not enough to be certain of it.

I'm a pipsqueak playing 45s at a lower buy-in level than most of you, but here's my view for what its worth:

I think in micros you should just play the highest level you are currently rolled for because you will get better faster that way - even if your hourly might temporarily be higher at the lower level. It's important to be able to move down if you run bad. My bankroll management looks like this

bottom $2 is for 100 buy-ins of the 2 cent hyper 990 man
$2-$10 is for 80 buy-ins of the 10 cent 360 man turbo
$10-$25 is for 60 buy-ins of the 25 cent 45 man reg speed
$25-$100 is for 75 buy-ins of the $1 45 man reg speed
$100-$350 is for 71 buy-ins of the $3.50 45 man reg speed
$350-$700 is for 50 buy-ins of $7 27 man reg speed
$700-$1500 is for 53 buy-ins of $15 27 man reg speed
$1500-$3000 is for 50 buy-ins of $30 27 man reg speed
above $3000 if I get there I am probably going to start playing scheduled MTTs. At some point I will introduce a withdrawal strategy too.

The basis of the above is that you should always have 100 times the buy-in at the next level down and money above 100BI for a given level is to be used to take shots the level above. In a sense you are permanently taking shots playing the level above the highest level for which you have 100 BI (for 180 man tournaments maybe 100 is too small a multiple).

So from my posting history you can see that as recently one month ago I had run it down to as low as $9 - particularly messing around playing Sunday Million turbo "jam n' rebuy" satellites. Now I am up to $53 after not many games and playing in the $1 45 man games. That means I actually have 28 buy-ins left at the dollar level as well as the 240 buy-ins for the smaller games listed above. So I have a ton of buy-ins available to avoid going totally bust but the BRM strategy is also liberal enough that the bankroll can multiply quickly if I run hot.

Of course with a strategy like this, if you are right on the border between two levels then you find yourself flicking between those two levels from session to session until you make a good score at the higher level. It's individual but at least for me that's probably psychologically easier than what most people generally suggest - having different move-up and move-down levels - because my way there is no sense of failure when a single session at the higher level doesn't end in a profit. With the strategy suggested in the second reply I would feel a real sense of failure after donking off 50 buy-ins in the $8 games and having to move down - maybe some people wouldn't be able to do it and they would keep playing tilted and underolled at the higher level. Obviously that's very individual though and if you play long sessions or a lot of tables then you might need to adjust the level even mid-session.

I don't know if this applies to you but when I unlocked myself on the results sites I was shocked how much I was crushing my proper games in the 45s, but not moving forward because I was saying to myself "let's play some Razz cash" or "let's play some satellites".

Now, if I want to do something different (or I don't have 2.5 hours for a 45 man) I either play an astronomer freeroll or just switch over to play money. I know this will get some lols but there is a fairly competitive 8-game SNG virtual economy there - obviously some people mess around in the PM 1Ks because they give you 1K of play money for free every time you go busto - but if I run up my play bankroll enough then I will eventually be playing the PM 50K 8-game which is usually only American players who can't play for real money legally, but probably used to before Black Friday and at least are playing properly as they value the play money they had to grind up to get into that game. If that isn't your thing and your blowing-off-steam or change-of-scene gambling has to be real money then set yourself up a "recreational" account on a different site for you to mess about with. Again this is individual but for me I need to keep myself disciplined and not freaking with my proper bankroll.