Depends how much you play how long it should last, and also how +EV you are. But most players are -EV, so the downswing (time below peak new winnings) is permanent.

Other than that - pretty much the only sensible thing I have heard Nick Wealthall say, is that when people suck out on you after they got it in bad, to tell yourself "That's why they play poker and nobody plays chess for money." The random element is part of being able to make money at this game at all.

In some ways each downswing is unique although perhaps we could say some things above the average ones.
The size and duration (in number of games) of swings is governed by the payout distribution, ie, typical size of tournaments and your roi at them.
It is very difficult to get an estimation of roi for big sized fields 180's or above. If a player had a known roi of 10% (impossible to get this roi figure really), and played 10k games of 180's we would get a spread or confidence range of 2.5% to 17.5% and this is just a 70% confidence, 30% of the time the player's results are outside this range. So it's difficult to know from playing 180's how good you are.
On average during a 10k batch of games a 10% roi player would see a downswing of 300BI's or worse (this is about a 50% probability to happen somewhere in 10k).
Lets say this player has a 'short' spell where lots of stuff goes wrong and he drops into the downswing because bad luck grants him a -10% roi, ie 20% below expectation for some period.
This bad period in this case would be 300/0.10 = 3000 games.
If the player expected to play 10k games a year this is a period of about 3 to 4 months.

The above sad story is just an example of what may happen, downswings can hit depths quite suddenly with a severe spell or reduced roi or they can be due to a longer spell of less severe bad luck. Both types are difficult to accept and yet MTT players have to - it's mentally a very hard game.

Thank you for replying. I have had swings before but this is by far the longest. but your reply has given me abit more confidence. I just wanted to check if anybody else experiences them for long periods of time like i have or if its just me playing really badly. Thanks again for replying

my average ROI over 2100 sngs is 6.3%

If they were 9 seat STTs 2100 would begin to give a decent confidence but for 180s this would be a very small sample. Obviously being +ve in roi is great but don't simply assume your roi is accurate, at 2k games with +ve roi you are much more likely to be a winning player overall but it is not certain.

A rule of thumb is you need about 10x the games to get the same confidence spread in 180's compared to STT, ie. 1000 games of STTs is about as accurate an roi predictor as 10,000 games of 180's.

For 45's you only need about 2x the games for the same confidence as STTs and so if you are learning these can be better early on to check that you are actually a winning player. They do play similar to 180 SnGs and aren't too far in style from scheduled MTTs.

Scheduled MTTs seem to have higher sustainable roi's though.

Be careful with your bankroll especially for large field games.

I´m currently grinding $7.25 6max 36man hyper turbo sattelite. 1=$215 2-6 8.20ish

How many games do I have to play to know if i'm beating the game. Is the EV line right?
Have been running baaaaad after my last upswing. Thanks!

If these are similar payout structures to 27 man which is likely you need to play about 800 to get a 70% CI interval +/- 10%.
So here if your roi is 19% +/- 10% for 70% confidence.

19% seems high so perhaps this means you are less likely to be on the high side in the long run - although the c-net adjusted does seem to point that way (I don't use poker tracker so I'm not so familiar with these graphs, I am not sure what this line actually is - usually in MTTs trackers only show sensible adjusted lines for single table tournies.)

Even after 800 it is very unlikely with 19% roi you are really a losing player though .

Hi buddy. I play the $1.50 45 man turbos on pokerstars. I started on the 0.50c 45 mans then moved onto the $1 90 mans and then onto the $1.50 45 mans. I would say most of that 2k game count is the 45 mans

After 2k games of 45's (turbo or normal doesn't affect the CI range) you have a 90% Confidence Interval of about your roi +/- 10%.
(70% CI roi +/- 5%).

As you study your real roi should go up so averages during periods of change are not that useful except to show how high the variance can be.

Keep studying and learning and GL

Thanks for all your advice and help. I really appreciate it thank you

what about those 4.5$ 180s? Can someone grind those or the traffic doesn't allow it?

also I hear people complaining about the 8$ turbo 180man A LOT, would it be better for me as a current 2.5$ 180man grinder to introduce myself in 3.5$ turbo 45man in case I'd like to move up stakes? I know there are regs that grind 45s and 180s at the same time but is this handy at all while 20-tabling or there is a huge difference between the two? If I beat the 180s am I likely win the 45s as well or ...?

thanx in advance for the answers ^^

Are there any resources for like a beginners guide to 45-90-180 man micro turbos?

Like starting hands , when to start shoving, just something to start with and what resources to develop ?

What roi can you get at the various levels?

www.thepokerbank.com that will teach you all the fundamentals to the game. It's an awesome site

What 4.50 ? All I see is 2.50 then it jumps to 8$

i ment the 4.5$ reg speed 180man

A bit off subject, but it didn't deserve its own thread as this must have been answered many times. Is there a way for HM2 to accurately track rebuys? Thanks!

Meaning? 8$ turbo to much regs?

yeap thats mostly their concern

Hello folks. First of all, Happy New Year for everybody.
I'm looking forward to use this non-working days to create one (or maybe two) plans for playing SNG tournaments. I did something and I hope you will help me to this right. I had divided tournaments in several levels, according to buy-ins. I'm able to play 6 tables at once, and for about 8-10 hours per day.
Level 1:
0.25$ 45-men Regular
0.25$ 90-men Regular

Min. Bankroll: 20$
Goal: Bankroll for level2 (50$) - 1/2 days, depending on the variance

Level 2:
0.50$ 45-men Turbo
0.50$ 90-men Turbo
0.50$ 180-men Turbo

Min. Bankroll: 50$
Goal: Bankroll for level3 (100$) - 5/7 days, depending on the variance

Level 3:
1$ 45-men Regular
1$ 90-men Regular

Min. Bankroll: 100$
Goal: Bankroll for level4 (150$) - 10/14 days, depending on the variance

Level 4:
1.50$ 45-men Turbo
1.50$ 18-men Turbo
1.50$ 18-men Regular
1.50$ 27-men Regular

Min. Bankroll: 150$
Goal: - Bankroll for level 5 (300$) - 2/3 weeks, depending on the variance
- About 200-300$ for withrdraw

Level 5:
2.50$ 180-men Turbo
2.50$ 90-men Regular
MTT with buy-in: 1.10$ - 2.20$ (8-10 per day)

Min. Bankroll: 300$
Goal: - Bankroll for level 6 (600$) - 1 month, depending on the variance
- About 500$ for withrdraw per month

Level 6:
3.50$ 45-men Regular
3.50$ 45-men Turbo
3.50$ 18-men Regular
3.50$ 18-men Turbo
3.50$ 180-men Turbo+R+A
MTT with buy-in: 3.30$ - 4.40$ (8-10 per day)

Min. Bankroll: 600$
Goal: About 1000$ per month (+Bankroll for this level)


IS IT POSSIBLE? Any suggestions?

AOS seems like a decent approach and it is very much possible.

You obviously need to run well, but if you do things like post hands for discussion and maybe join one of the study groups then you will make great strides.

Only thing you truly need to do is get in your chair and grind grind grind

Yes, but you are pushing your roll hard throughout. If you are willing to easily jump up and very importantly easily jump down in stakes it is possible to get the max out of your bankroll. If you are the type of player that won't drop down when the results go bad you are very likely to go bust sometime ahead.

This plan also assumes that you can beat all these stakes and many players can't, remember that the micro stakes are very good learning grounds and attempting high volume grinding may not be the best approach to get you through the levels fast.

ok then. what are you suggest?

Your plan is fine, it may or may not go wrong, or at least to time, depending on luck but if you can beat the lower buyins well and you do move down if you cross below your thresholds it is a decent approach.

For good, powerful, bankroll management dropping down at appropriate times is at least as important as when to move up to higher buyins.

Here is a now old but well known BR strategy/guide (nb, written when possible roi's were higher)
http://www.pocketfives.com/f7/sng-mu...-guide-378221/

I do think that many people try to mass multi-table micro tournaments to the detriment of their leaning - and this was perhaps my main point. If you don't improve fast you can stay stuck in the micros longer and also have a bad time with large swings. Do something sensible that matches your style/approach and that has some balance as far as learning and improving goes. Always think it out and keep refining/adjusting your plan.

Gl.

Hi.

I'm fairly new to 2+2 so go easy on me.

Last week I started a challenge similar to Acoimbra's from a couple of years ago. I deviated from it slightly by starting with some MTTs which were $1.10 and so not strictly sticking to the rule of using <1% of BR for buy ins (learnt my lesson now).

Basically the first week has gone absolutely terrible and as a result I'm now only sticking to $0.50 45man turbos until I get $100+ or less than $25 (where I will start to play $0.25 SnGs).

I need all the help/advice I can get from the community and also some reassurance I suppose.

Right now my BR is at $38.47 - below is a graph of my All in EV + Total Winnings.

How do you calculate All-In EV for MTTs?