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ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

08-08-2014 , 11:34 AM
There are varying degrees of "straight down". At bb100+ playing a good aggro game can get you a ratio of 3-1 won at showdown vs lost without showdown.

If your ratio is closer to 1.5-1 or 1-1 then you have leaks. It's generally a sign that you are playing too safe and not exploiting your opponents enough.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-08-2014 , 12:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by getmeoffcompletely
At bb100+ playing a good aggro game can get you a ratio of 3-1 won at showdown vs lost without showdown.

If your ratio is closer to 1.5-1 or 1-1 then you have leaks. It's generally a sign that you are playing too safe and not exploiting your opponents enough.
I agree with it.
Yeah.. it is hard to get good ratio in tournaments, especially at t80+ blinds and SNG's involved.

For deeper stacked spots, filtered for effective stacks bigger than 50BB in SNG/MTT, my graph looks like this for example:


And for effective stacks 100BB+ (not a big sample, there can't be too many 100BB+ spots in turbos, most SNG's):


Should I play cash instead... :/

Last edited by musaire; 08-08-2014 at 12:23 PM.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-08-2014 , 03:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by getmeoffcompletely
At bb100+ playing a good aggro game
Oh I just realised you were talking about the blind levels t100+, no? I was accidentally thinking about 100bb+ deep stacks.
You can get 3 to 1 ratio at t100+? You must be defending your blinds as maniac, no?
What games do you play, non-turbos?
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-08-2014 , 09:10 PM
Few questions about the 45mans on Stars. At the moment I'm doing more than ok on the $1.5 level ...

1) At what point is it ok to take a shot at the $3.50 level? 80BI's ($280) ?
2) Is 100BI's enough for the $3.50 level? Or do I have to aim towards 150?
3) Is there really a big skill difference between the $1.50 and $3.50 level?
3) Any good training videos/blogs around for the 45mans? I know that Aarnimetsa is pretty good at those and have checked out some videos from him.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-09-2014 , 09:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MilsoN
Few questions about the 45mans on Stars. At the moment I'm doing more than ok on the $1.5 level ...

1) At what point is it ok to take a shot at the $3.50 level? 80BI's ($280) ?
2) Is 100BI's enough for the $3.50 level? Or do I have to aim towards 150?
3) Is there really a big skill difference between the $1.50 and $3.50 level?
3) Any good training videos/blogs around for the 45mans? I know that Aarnimetsa is pretty good at those and have checked out some videos from him.
Hey Milson

1) Well you can start (cautiously) to mix the $3.5s with the $1.5 when ur BR is about $250. (Only mix though)

2) 100 BI should be enough, but be ready to move down again. This is all depending on your ROI and the volume you put in

3) As I understand it the big skill difference should start to occur in the $7s, but you might see a few decent regs at the $3.50s

4) Pokerxfactor made a few ones, but almost all sng vids out there are outdated, so I think it would be better for you to study through 2+2

Alex
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-10-2014 , 05:55 AM
which is more profitable to 24 table - $1 90man + $1,5 45mans or $0,50 180mans?
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-10-2014 , 07:24 AM
Question about sit and goes 90 and 180 mans, 4,50 dollars buyin versus 8 dollars buyin.

I dont quite have the roll for 8 dollars buyin, but i find the lower buyin games even more variance because people are so unpredictable.

What i really like about the 180 manns 8 dollars is that often people just fold when you raise from late pos to steal the blinds in the later stages of the tournament. But in the lower buyins, donks are more sticky and often calls raises from the blinds and donk into me allin with any piece of the board. Of course this is gold when i have a big hand, but often when blind stealing thats not the case. Its not like i blind steal on auto when its folded around to me, but much more prefer the blinds to give up more easy.

Do you guys have any comments to this issue? I really feel that i master the 8 dollars buyin games alot better, where it actually is possible to range people pretty accurate. Have to grind as a beast i guess to get the roll to comfortably play 8 dollars sitn goes.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-10-2014 , 10:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilmour
I dont quite have the roll for 8 dollars buyin, but i find the lower buyin games even more variance because people are so unpredictable.
guess this is one of the most common "paradigm" for beginners.
everytime somebody makes a bad move you win money - even when you sometimes don't win the hand.
common quote would be : "move up where they respect my raises"

in general the variance is higher the less the ROI.

if you've done okay on smaller stakes i'm sure you wont have problems finding a staking
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-10-2014 , 11:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BubbleNedRum
guess this is one of the most common "paradigm" for beginners.
everytime somebody makes a bad move you win money - even when you sometimes don't win the hand.
common quote would be : "move up where they respect my raises"

in general the variance is higher the less the ROI.

if you've done okay on smaller stakes i'm sure you wont have problems finding a staking
Yeah, absolutely. I normally laugh at people advice "move up where they respect your raises"- but now i totally understand where thats come from. I have played a bunch of 180 man and 90 man sit and goes in the past weeks and i for sure feel that i master the 8 dollars buyins best because of more predictable players that are possible to range in most scenarios. For some years back i played at 20-30 dollars 9 and 18 man buyins on full tilt when the site had good traffic, so i have alot of experience.

I had grinded my roll up to 900 dollars by playing microbuyins and was doing some aggressive shot taking on the 8 dollars, but the 2 and 3 outers just kept been shooting at me so i run into a pretty bad run. I know 900 is all too small roll to start on the 8 dollars, but i have possibilites to reload some funds- so i find it worth taking some risk.

Now i have to keep grinding the 4 dollars buyins again, and its pretty frustrating.

Is it a better approach just to be open shoving more instead of raising at the 4 dollars buyins- to prevent "flop junkies" in the blinds being sticky?

Last edited by Gilmour; 08-10-2014 at 11:12 AM.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-10-2014 , 01:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilmour
Is it a better approach just to be open shoving more instead of raising at the 4 dollars buyins- to prevent "flop junkies" in the blinds being sticky?
best poker answer ever: "it depends"
generally: if people call to tight push lighter, if people call to loose push tighter.
r/c your top range, r/f your bottom range (blockerplay), push hands that have great equity but play awkward postflop, like small pockets, T8s, QJo and stuff.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-10-2014 , 01:40 PM
Thanks for good answer and comments Bubble. Appreciate it
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-10-2014 , 03:09 PM
Another thing: how many tables do you guy manage at once when playing? Is 10 tables at once bad?

I feel like i cant play my A game anymore and is starting to time out too much if i go above 10 tables.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-10-2014 , 04:05 PM
thats a thing where you really need to find out whats best for you.
advice like you need to play lot of table to get a decent sample fast, to push your hourly is bull**** in different ways

- especially if you struggle in some spots and really need time to consider playing too much tables is the worst thing.
if you get the basics right and are able to apply it in short time you can take more table into account.

- what is happening with your motivation/energy during multitable?
it does not help anything if you can 16 tables for 3 hours but beeing brain****ed afterwards.
playing 12 tables in sets could be worse as playing 9 tables continously games/h wise

- in the end you find the best way for you.
if your theoretical wise doing fine you will get bored playing 9 tables so you move up tp playing 12, then to 16, then your hourly is good enough to buy table ninja and you can play 20 tables and so on.

gl with that
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-10-2014 , 04:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BubbleNedRum
thats a thing where you really need to find out whats best for you.
advice like you need to play lot of table to get a decent sample fast, to push your hourly is bull**** in different ways

- especially if you struggle in some spots and really need time to consider playing too much tables is the worst thing.
if you get the basics right and are able to apply it in short time you can take more table into account.

- what is happening with your motivation/energy during multitable?
it does not help anything if you can 16 tables for 3 hours but beeing brain****ed afterwards.
playing 12 tables in sets could be worse as playing 9 tables continously games/h wise

- in the end you find the best way for you.
if your theoretical wise doing fine you will get bored playing 9 tables so you move up tp playing 12, then to 16, then your hourly is good enough to buy table ninja and you can play 20 tables and so on.

gl with that

Good advice, i agree on many of your points. Especially like that about ignoring people who talk about mass multitabling like 20 tables and even more too get a big sample fast and so on. I think you only can do that if your sure that your game doesent suffer from it, if not its probably not worth it to mass multitable.

For example i found that i get bored, NOT playing my best if i play for example 5 tables, but if i play 12 it is too much and i start timing out too much and it just goes too fast. When i have enough tables going i have to keep so focused on the next decision that bad beats doesent have time to bother me and thats another huge argument for having as many tables as you being able to do.

When i finish one tourney i register for a new one in seconds. Then an hour or two into the session most of my tourneys will be at seperate stages- wich causes me to focus extra on the tables i go deep in, and i really like that.

Hope i can be good enough to manage even more tables in the future though, i have a dream about being able to grind full time- but only time will show if i will make it or not If you dont have dreams you dont have big enough goals either.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-11-2014 , 02:10 PM
Seems like the 7 dollars 45 manns turbos is a game of my taste- played a bunch of them last couple of days.

People know how to fold preflop from the blinds, a little bit less aggressive variance than in the 180 manns games- and still a good mix of regs and fish.

Even though 7 dollars are all too aggressive for my bankroll i hope to run good in the beginning now, so i dont have to reload. Have a 500 dollar roll at the moment, but i just cant find energy to play the 3 dollar games so i guess i have to take the risk of going busto instead
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-17-2014 , 06:22 PM


I've been posting quite a few hands for analysis recently, now I'm going to post my stats so far.

Currently at the $0.50s. Managed to work my BR up some. Not sure if this is a big enough sample size to say whether I'm playing well or not for sure.

Anyway, I have a few questions:

1. How many buy-ins are required for someone practicing moderately conservative bankroll management for 45 man turbos?

2. Following the question above, if I wanted to specialize in 45 man turbos and gradually move towards 180 man turbo and finally normal speed MTTs what is a respectable bankroll ladder?

3. What is a 'good' ROI for the level I am playing?

Thanks for any feedback.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-18-2014 , 04:31 AM
1. You samplesize is useless.

2. 200 buyins is fine. Less will also be fine if your skilled enough.

3. Roi at the 0.50$ should be sky high. But 120% roi wont last! Might be something around 30 to 40%.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-22-2014 , 07:14 PM
@ Musaire & getmeoffcompletely

Sorry about the lack of a reply to your helpful messages, been busy getting my ass handed to me some more =)

About the red line, i have never been able to stop it from plunging south. A coach of mine once got me to try too and it didn't go well. I'd say it is part of the issue but only a small part (am i wrong here?).

Had to progressively move down to the lowest levels again.. hopefully my "luck" will turn around soon.

Graphs; (soo many cheesburgers!!)
Spoiler:

All cEV


Over t80 BBwon


Over t80 win SD/non SD

ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-25-2014 , 01:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilmour
Seems like the 7 dollars 45 manns turbos is a game of my taste- played a bunch of them last couple of days.

People know how to fold preflop from the blinds, a little bit less aggressive variance than in the 180 manns games- and still a good mix of regs and fish.

Even though 7 dollars are all too aggressive for my bankroll i hope to run good in the beginning now, so i dont have to reload. Have a 500 dollar roll at the moment, but i just cant find energy to play the 3 dollar games so i guess i have to take the risk of going busto instead
I don't have bankroll issues, in that I only play a few hours a week (less than 10) and can reload if I need to, but when I switched to 45man turbos from cash games and STT I started at the $7 games with about 50 BI. Like you said, good mix of reasonable/predictable regs and fish. You will prob be fine, poker gods willing of course.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-25-2014 , 03:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DublinMeUp
@ Musaire & getmeoffcompletely

Sorry about the lack of a reply to your helpful messages
Np

Looking at the graphs I can confirm you are unlucky.
If you haven't lost the confidence still after that kinda downswing then you are a good player. gl!
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-25-2014 , 10:43 AM
First off i would like to say if this is in the wrong section i apologize.

I have a couple of Qs for 18man regs or players that would know.

1.What kind of swings can you expect at lower levels like the $3.50?

2.What kind of ROI should be expected in the $1.50,$3.50 and $7 buyins?

Thanks for your help.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-25-2014 , 11:53 AM
1) Swings a little bigger than you would get at 9's and less than 27's... with the same roi.
With a 10% 18 roi you should 'expect' a 70BI swing in every block of 5000 you play (there is about a 50% chance of one in every new 5000 block). You will only see a 100+BI one in about 1 in every 10 sets of 5000 games you play but anyone can get really unlucky and much bigger is also possible. And swings will be much bigger for players with a lower roi.

2) a good player can expect a 10% roi but it depends on several things and some can do better and some will do worse.

It is difficult to get a decent shot at knowing roi from results, if you have a 10% roi and play 1000 9 seaters you can expect with a 90% confidence an roi range of 10% +/- 9%. For 18's after 1000 it will be about 10% +/- 11%. Even a block of 10000 gives you a range of roughly +/- 3.5%
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-25-2014 , 12:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BaseMetal2
I did some calcs and graphs to see roughly how often downswings should occur for tournaments of different sized fields. you can find them all from the links on this page.
http://www.deucescracked.com/blogs/b...ability-Graphs

Also someone has produced a very nice online variance calculator for tournaments at:
http://pokerdope.com/new-simulator-f...r-tournaments/
Love this thank you very much for these links!
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-25-2014 , 12:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BaseMetal2
1) Swings a little bigger than you would get at 9's and less than 27's... with the same roi.
With a 10% 18 roi you should 'expect' a 70BI swing in every block of 5000 you play (there is about a 50% chance of one in every new 5000 block). You will only see a 100+BI one in about 1 in every 10 sets of 5000 games you play but anyone can get really unlucky and much bigger is also possible. And swings will be much bigger for players with a lower roi.

2) a good player can expect a 10% roi but it depends on several things and some can do better and some will do worse.

It is difficult to get a decent shot at knowing roi from results, if you have a 10% roi and play 1000 9 seaters you can expect with a 90% confidence an roi range of 10% +/- 9%. For 18's after 1000 it will be about 10% +/- 11%. Even a block of 10000 gives you a range of roughly +/- 3.5%
Thanks very much for this
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-25-2014 , 08:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by musaire
If you haven't lost the confidence still after that kinda downswing then you are a good player. gl!
I'd be lying if i said my confidence hasn't taken a massive blow. It's obv affecting my play to some degree, I'm pretty snake bitten in some spots but normally just close my eyes and jam/call anyway :P

Plan is to grind it out or busto.

Thanks again for the help
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