Hey mate,

Thanks for the quick reply. It is indeed a rather small sample. I have to find more time to raise volume, but with a fulltime job and a girlfriend it's not that easy -as you can imagine.

Makes perfectly sense what you're saying about the 90% CI and the 10k sample (I actually understood it from the first read - thanks classes Statistics 5y ago ).

Maybe it's a wise idea to make an action plan to reach a 10k sample before using the graph in MP.

You have it set up for € and not $ dont know if that will cover the $ buy in sngs or just the € you have played

Nothing, its not nearly statistical meaningfull to determine anything, 953 games its what a full time grinder/regular plays on a week.

With that sample size? No

If by "acurate" u mean if this shows/reflects how good/solid/profitable of a player you are then NO¡!¡

Then you should know 953 games isnt a nearly big enough sample to determine anything

It's a bit of a misconception that you can't tell anything from ~1k games. You're likely a winning player. For example, a 0% ROI player will be between -13% and +13% 70% of the time over that sample. It's possible you are a losing player, but it's unlikely. The sample size is, of course, not enough to know your "true ROI" /how big of a skill edge you have at that level -your expected ROI may be much, much lower.

You should include the graph, assuming those are the games you are playing, and just assume investors know how to interpret it.

Just in case you realise that stakeback packages do essentially charge markup. Think of it you are getting 15% of of profits for nothing except your time/

Your markup is essentially 100/85 = 1.17 - ($ you feel you should be compensated for your time). Thing is that alot of people that charge markup selling normal packs dont even consider the $ value of their time component and there markup is aimed at being reflective of what their expected return should be.

If anyone with better knowledge of this feel free to chime in.

Hey guys,

Thanks a lot for all the good advice. It is very obvious that I need to increase my sample size a lot and just keep doing my thing. It's just so hard combining with working life/girlfriend, although I really feel like this is my kind of game.

I just played a MP $200 pack with 85/15 split into profict with still 25% of the pack to go. Extra motivation.

Set4vegas, what would your advice be towards another selling model in the MP. Very happy to get feedback on this. I sold a pack 80/20 once but lowered it to 85/15 afterwards. I also sold several MTT packs just selling let's say 70-80% at 1.0 MU and play the rest at my own roll. I felt like investors found it more feasable for the 85/15 split, so I switched to that.

recently I started playing 3.5+r 180max sng tournaments at pokerstars. prior to that I have been playing 1$/180max (roi 73%), 2.5$/90max(roi 54%), 4.5$/180 max (roi 43%). So far at 3.5$+r I have played around 600 tournaments and I'm about break even, but swings are brutal (yesterday I was +400$).

Previously I used to play LAG-ish style, especially at 2.5$/90men and 4.5$/180men. But here it looks like nitty style works much better for me. Also I noticed that several succesfull regulars tend to play very loose aggressive. Like crazy aggromanic style which I don't get how can be working out...

for initial strategy, I'm always rebuying at the beginning and try to play rebuy period as aggressive as possible. Logic is quite simple. If I could rebuy for 6k instead of 3k would I rebuy? yes. we can't rebuy, but if I can flip with someone for 3k then it would be kinda same thing.

Gotta stick to this thrad for some time.

Hey guys...

Is it a 50% ROI achievable for grinding small/middle stakes MTTs?

I've been playing since 2006 but with a low volume. Lately i've been studying a lot more and thinking about grindind mid stakes Mtts. I ended up with a list of mtts starting from noon to 15:30 with about 21 mtts with a AVB of $ 31.00.

Here my stats only on ps: PokerStars SCHEDULED

Games Avg Profit AVB ROI Profit Cap
1,543 $14.77 $19.81 119% $22,797 86

Actually 30 to 40%...maybe 50% its dreaming too high lol.

Hi all

I am usually a cash game player and normal mtt's but recently started playing 45 mans and i am really enjoying them.I wanted to start with a small $100 bankroll and build my way up.

What sort of brm would you recommend for 45 man sngs as i really don't know what buy in to start out at.

Thanks in advance.

guess i'd advise 200 buy ins for proper BRM.
but you need to get past the micros as fast as possible to avoid the high rake.
if loosing the 100$ won't hurt you that much i guess i'd go with mixing the 1.50$ 45s and the 1$ 90s.
if you really want to start from scratch play the 0.50$ 45s with proper BRM.

another start would be getting a staking if you already have some results being a cash gamer, any trained monkey can beat those games

Have couple questions which are pretty much same just buy in differs:

1) At what bankroll number is safe to start mix 15s/180 if you're playing 3r/8's?

2) Same with 35/60's but have questions is it even worth to play these besides ego reasons? I mean I imagine there is like half a field of thinking players so would it be worth it?

Thanks!

Hi all!

I have just started playing turbo SnGs not long ago and I am curious to find out what is the average ROI for grinding $3.50 turbo 45 men?

Let's say it's over a sample of almost 2K of tourneys

My results

ITM is 21.5%
ROI is 13.32%

Is it below average?

As recommended by many pros, we need at least 100 buy ins or 200 buy ins(ideally) in order to grind comfortably for these SnGs.

I understand that the downswings for these turbo SnGs can be quite brutal at times. I can have a downswing of 10-20 buy ins during a session. Can the downswings be worse than that?

Appreciate if the SNG pros can enlighten me here.

Thanks!

I saw members posting that the downswing for 180men can be 200-500buyins. So I need to know what are the worst downswings for 45 men turbo SnGs here.

Appreciate if the SNG pros can enlighten me here.

I have 63% ROI in normal speed SNGs. Downswings may go up to 100 buy ins or even more depends how much you work on your game and how you approach your downswings.

The average ROI is a negative number (what ever the rake is).

These sort of threads have been done to death and the answer will be...

"Go and have a look on sharkscope or an equivalent, filter your results and look at the biggest winners. 13% is good.

10 to 20 buy in downswings are nothing. Do a search and you will find downswings in the 100s of buy ins."

Also the 63% ROI mentioned above is ridiculously good and probably not sustainable in the 45 mans, though I'm happy to be proved wrong.

10-20% for sure, but you must play at least a thousand of these, variance is pretty high in these things. I play non turbos and have 63% Roi but the sample is small (around 1k games) and its hard to have sustainable ROI in large samples.

Hy everyone! I'm starting grinding micros and I tried to move up from 0.5 mttsng turbos to 1.5 45man turbos, but had a downswing and had to move back, now I have more than 320$ and I'll be playing the 1.5 again. I played 422 games, and I'm -96,71. It's a normal downswing or I might be playing it bad. This is my all in graph, it explain my losses?

[/QUOTE]

Hey guys I am new to the forums and thought I would quickly seek out some advice I can't seem to find anywhere. I recently opened an account on PS with a deposit of $15, and quickly began grinding out these 45 man SNGS, my bankroll is now at $80 after a week of playing them, of course this is not an accurate sample of success by any means and I am not without fear of downswings.

I was hoping I could get some input on how bad variance is within these micro stakes MTTS and how many BI without cashing is within reason mainly for my own mentality and so I can stay sane when the variance does start to show itself. Thanks.

This should be the most helpfull post in "variance history"
Have a look at the 180s part, of course the numbers are incorrect, but it should give you an idea

http://www.nsdpoker.com/2011/02/mtt_pros_2/

Hey guys,

Wondering if this is standard or heading toward being a little gross?

Should I be eating D's and losing that money?

3.2K Micro (thank god) MTTsng's,
Mix of 50c - $2.50 180's, $1 90's and $1.50 - $3.50 45's,
ABI $2~,
-400BI,

$$ graph is messed up for some reason so Topshark to the rescue:



cEV giraffe; I know, it's not to be relied upon.

[/QUOTE]

No, this graph can't explain your losses because the graph is for 1360 hands only. Sure you ran bad during these hands. How about BB graph for those 422 games?
-$96.71 can be a standard swing btw.

Probably unlucky at the late stages. Maybe taking too many marginal spots in addition to that, so 'the net expected chips won' stays break-evenish but can be possibly constantly coolered as the green line suggests.
Can you post a BB graph as well?

Hi, thanks for the reply.

Split the BB graph into two for early and mid/high blinds, not sure on the exact math but i know BB graphs don't differentiate between a 20 blind and a 300 blind.

Anyway, looks like things aren't going so well in later stages. running good early but would rather swap

early (t0-t80)



Mid/high (t80<)

Surely that's not over any decent sample size! Over how many games have you got a roi of 63%?

DublinMeUp, your high blind BB/100 is definitely messed up. You've been running bad the past 30k or so hands but also I'm pretty sure you're being too tight.

Check out your won without showdown line. If it's going straight down, you need to be pushing wider from mid/late position / jamming wider over limpers / raise-folding less / 3bet shoving more.

DublinMeUp

BB less than t80 looks nice

There can be some improvements made t80+ probably because your net expected BB won could have been better for the first 50k hands, if it is low like this it can lead to bigger variance in addition to low ROI.

Last 30k hands t80+ looks okay, maybe you did change something or switched to different games, but unlucky. You are 2.5BB/100 under EV for that period. For comparison there is no more than 1BB/100 discrepancy on my graph for the last 220k hands t80+. So it is a bit more unlucky than usual. Flipping in multiway pots vs. fish in micro games can lead to bigger than standard variance, I think.

There good be mistakes in short stack up to 20BB play. Can't say you are tight or loose shortstacked looking at the graph. Under 20BB it just gets pretty mathematical with no much room for creativity, so your ranges just need to be precise vs every type of player and avoid thin spots overall vs. fish. Know your EV at every action.

'getmeoffcompletely' suggest looking at the 'won without showdown' line. I am not sure it can go anywhere else than straight down only. Beacuse my graph for t80+ SNG/MTT for this year looks like this: