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Originally Posted by Leia Amidala
Hi!
I wonder if you guys could help me out. I seem to have some major leaks (or a major bad run of variance) in my game that i just cant seem to find. I have been grinding the 180s (2.5 and 3R). Here are my results:
2.5: 5000 sngs: 7% roi
3R: 1000sng: 40% roi
Overal 15%.
More than happy to go over hands with you, not a crusher or anything but maybe i can pick up on things you missed.
First, are those stats based on sharkscope? Is that ROI at $3r adjusted for average rebuys? I think they´re not.
Second, here´s a varianca simulation based on $2.5 ROI (7%) and sample size (5,000)
According to this variance simulation the worst peak would be at 364.8 buyins with a 99.7% confidence interval.
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But im very concerned the roi of the 3r is just an upswing
Small sample for sure but im more intrested to know whether or not those rebuy results are adjusted for average rebuys.
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I analyze my game very thoroughly. After each session i load a couple of deep runs in HRC. Check my shove and call ranges against nash ranges (adjusting the ranges where needed). And spend a lot of time on studying icm spots.
This is obviously important but i think is also important to have like a study buddy or an active skype study group and have regular live HHs review sessions with other players.
Bottom line: I think my shoving and call ranges, and icm adjustment at final 10 are pretty rock solid. I see regs with good roi's at final table making horror calls with KJs vs a 10bb MP shover ( which is absolutely fine in chip ev, but most often not so in icm mode).
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But that 7% roi over 5000sngs is not very promising. Also considering the downswing of 350 buyins i just had (making a low overall roi even more probable).
At that ROI a 350 BIs downer is expected. What is not expected for a solid player with rock solid FT and ICM game to have a 7% ROI, i think you´re either running below EV on 2s and above EV on 3r and/or both.
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The only think i can think of, is that i overvalue icm.
This is also a posibility and i think this could be the case for some of the hands you´ve posted on the MTTSNG sub forum (an AQ hand comes to mind)
Especially when I have a medium stack at a final table. If you play according to icm you really cant do much in that situation. Your stack has a lot of value, and busting before shorter stacks would be bad. Of course you have to call a lot tighter under icm pressure, but you also cant shove that much. If you are in EP you can only shove TT,AQ+ for instance. While the nash shove ranges are a lot wider. But because people are calling looser then nash (only at FT, in chip ev it is just the opposite) according to HRC you have to shove a lot tighter. SO i think i might be trying to ladder up too much. While ignoring the big prizes at the end. So maybe i should shove wider there ( like nash ).
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This are my finishes:
ITM: 14%
VPIP/PFR/3bet: 17/16/9
# of finishes:
10: 21
9: 23
8: 24
7: 25
6: 22
5: 27
4:30
3:33
2:39
1:34
I´ve been building a sharkscope players group for just Turbos 180s for $3r, $8 and $15with just the best of the best over a decent sample size, right now this players group adds up to 77k+ games played 18% ROi and 17% ITM, note that i use a 2.35 as average rebuy to adjust rebuys results, so checking this player group results by finish position we have..