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ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

07-31-2013 , 07:15 PM
thx for the responses guys!
Just one more quick question: a friend of mine is willing to stake me for the 180s, I'm currently beating the 2.50's over a 20% roi. Would I be able to beat the 3r's? I know they are soft but even softer than the 2.50s?
thx!

btw: I 10-table so I might go with like 5 2.50's 5 3rs.
Or is it maybe a better idea to try and move up in amount of tables before I move up in stakes?
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-01-2013 , 01:52 AM
the $3r's are soft as butter and awesome value. agree that you'd want a 3k br to feel comfortable playing these exclusively however mixing these in with the $2.50's 2k br would be fine imo.

feel like any competent winning player at any stakes should be able to beat the $3r's
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-01-2013 , 02:54 PM
3k$ would be reasonable. And dynamics are a bit different for non-rebuy 180s turbos since there will be few spots here and there when you will be playing somewhat relatively deep.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-04-2013 , 11:39 AM
$2.5k-$3k I think is a comfortable bankroll to multi-table these tournaments.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-04-2013 , 01:44 PM
yeah, you have to make some adjustements, especially early game if you're not used to play 100bb+ FR poker. for example not auto-stacking off with AK at 10/20
you might not win in them right away and they are def not softer then 2.50's.

so 3k should be good with the option to cut them out and play 2.50's exclusively if you're down to 1k-1.5k or so
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-04-2013 , 02:31 PM
forgot to add that you can also buy-in with just 1 bullet to lower variance and increase your roi in exchange for a lower hourly
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-04-2013 , 06:22 PM
1k is no where close but as long as you only play 1 3rebuy for every 20 2.50's you should be fine ;p. 1k is 80 buyins you can lose that in a day easily...
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-05-2013 , 10:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MatteoBounce
forgot to add that you can also buy-in with just 1 bullet to lower variance and increase your roi in exchange for a lower hourly
Not sure how buying in with 1 bullet lowers variance? I would say having a shorter stack increases variance as you have less room for play/manoeuvre...It may lower your outlay but if you want to be playing optimally then you need to buy-in with a 3k stack.

I could be wrong.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-06-2013 , 11:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SJL99
Not sure how buying in with 1 bullet lowers variance? I would say having a shorter stack increases variance as you have less room for play/manoeuvre...It may lower your outlay but if you want to be playing optimally then you need to buy-in with a 3k stack.

I could be wrong.
i have no math to back it up but it's clear that a 2x starting stack doesn't double your equity.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-06-2013 , 12:07 PM
this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MatteoBounce
so 3k should be good with the option to cut them out and play 2.50's exclusively if you're down to 1k-1.5k or so
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-06-2013 , 12:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MatteoBounce
i have no math to back it up but it's clear that a 2x starting stack doesn't double your equity.
It's not clear.

Although ICM tells us double stack != double equity, ICM assumes equal skill and does not account for what a skillful player can do with a larger stack. The bigger your stack, the more you can leverage your skill advantage (especially when the options are below average stack vs. above average stack - you can't stack fish when you don't have them covered).

If people had the option to buy in a normal tourney for half stack and buyin, I don't think many regs would do it - mostly fish.

Last edited by Beerocrat; 08-06-2013 at 12:35 PM.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-06-2013 , 01:01 PM
i mostly refer to:

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...Post%203886585

and the assumption that every chip you win in a tournament is less valuable than the chip before it. i wasn't implying skill because we might shouldn't factor it in if we don't know if/by how much we are actually winning.
but you're obv right that it's possible to more then double your equity by doubling up (although less true in fast structures like 180 Man's). say Phil Ivey doubles up in the ME or w/e
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-07-2013 , 04:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MatteoBounce
i have no math to back it up but it's clear that a 2x starting stack doesn't double your equity.
At no point did I say it doubles your equity.

Starting with a 3k stack will allow you to play to a higher optimum than you could if you had 50% of the chips. Especially as it is a turbo with only a 30 minute rebuy period.

Say you start with 1500. Rebuy period ends and you have 1700. You add-on. You have 3700. I think you need to be heading into the freezeout with around 7k to give yourself the best chance and allow room for your ability to take precedence over players with a lower ability. The very minimum you want to take into the freezeout period is 5k (double buy-in + add on).

Therefore your statement of "forgot to add that you can also buy-in with just 1 bullet to lower variance and increase your roi in exchange for a lower hourly" makes no sense as having my example of 3.7k and not 5k - 7k will dramatically increase variance due to the amount of big blinds you have.

Also with 1 bullet you are more likely to want to gamble more to double up - again increasing variance.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-07-2013 , 09:14 AM
There is a known reg that doesn't double rebuy, and he's got a good ROI. stragerpoker is the SN. He shoves 75BB UTG w PP, AJs+ and such lol. All I know is that he's printing money... Anyways, I always 2x rebuy, it's ******ed not to do it, anything you say, you are with disadvatange towards those who rebuy.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-07-2013 , 11:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SJL99
At no point did I say it doubles your equity.

Starting with a 3k stack will allow you to play to a higher optimum than you could if you had 50% of the chips. Especially as it is a turbo with only a 30 minute rebuy period.

Say you start with 1500. Rebuy period ends and you have 1700. You add-on. You have 3700. I think you need to be heading into the freezeout with around 7k to give yourself the best chance and allow room for your ability to take precedence over players with a lower ability. The very minimum you want to take into the freezeout period is 5k (double buy-in + add on).

Therefore your statement of "forgot to add that you can also buy-in with just 1 bullet to lower variance and increase your roi in exchange for a lower hourly" makes no sense as having my example of 3.7k and not 5k - 7k will dramatically increase variance due to the amount of big blinds you have.

Also with 1 bullet you are more likely to want to gamble more to double up - again increasing variance.
i think you didn't read my post^^
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-08-2013 , 09:51 AM
3-5k bankroll would be comfortable
good luck
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-12-2013 , 06:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MatteoBounce
yeah, you have to make some adjustements, especially early game if you're not used to play 100bb+ FR poker. for example not auto-stacking off with AK at 10/20
you might not win in them right away and they are def not softer then 2.50's.

so 3k should be good with the option to cut them out and play 2.50's exclusively if you're down to 1k-1.5k or so
i'll disagree and say they are softer. a lot of the 2.50 field are good solid players who are staked and there backers start them out there.id say when a random fish goes into the lobby on stars and sees 122$ for first prize vs 500+ in the 3.50r there are not thinking about how many re buys there probably going sink into it,there looking for that big score off what they assume is going to be $3.50 . i am dropping back down to the 2.50s as of today because i need to re build my roll due to some life expenses and i am pretty irritated about it because i know there is way more value in the 3.50r.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-19-2013 , 05:45 PM
Hello,

I was wondering what a sustainable ROI is for the $1, 45 man regular speed sit and go's is. Also, do the $1 games play much differently than the .25 games? Any response is greatly appreciated. Thanks in Advance!
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-19-2013 , 08:05 PM
Go to sharkscope and check the leaderboards for that particular level, if I recall it's 5-7 tables and then select your buyin range. It's completely free. Cheers
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-20-2013 , 12:00 AM
Hey all, I'm putting together a bankroll for online and I want to get a semi-regular grind schedule for MTTs with some MTTSnGs mixed in to help cut out the variance a bit.

What are good tournaments for an 8-10k bankroll? I'll be on PS and Full Tilt. I haven't played on either since BF, so I'd love some input.

Thanks!
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-20-2013 , 12:13 AM
I would recommend stars big guarantee tournaments as they have the best structure. Also the upcoming Wcoop events ($215's are probably as much as your br can handle right now, if that) are definitely worth a shot, especially if you study the structure and avoid the second chance events.

There may be a few minitops worth your time, seems like I recall a 2 day $215 and a ME $75 which is always soft due to sats and the nature and advertisement of the ME. These "event" tournaments offer the best structures and are easily the softest fields for any time of year for mtt's. If you are going to take a bigger shot, definitely confine the shot taking to the weekends, as weekend mtt's are running way softer and you should be able to achieve a good roi on weekends alone.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-20-2013 , 12:19 AM
Thanks man. I'm thinking that $215's are a bit higher than I want to play at the start because the variance is so high in the big field MTTs, but I'll probably fire up some $109's and see what else I can find.

What SNGs can I be supplementing my MTT schedule with? Do $12 180's (turbo?) run very often. I'm interested in knowing if the mid to high stakes 45s and 180s pop off regularly, or just at peak hours.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-20-2013 , 01:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DanHartGWS
Thanks man. I'm thinking that $215's are a bit higher than I want to play at the start because the variance is so high in the big field MTTs, but I'll probably fire up some $109's and see what else I can find.

What SNGs can I be supplementing my MTT schedule with? Do $12 180's (turbo?) run very often. I'm interested in knowing if the mid to high stakes 45s and 180s pop off regularly, or just at peak hours.
Yeah I agree the $215's are high for that br, but I think a properly selected one on the weekends might be worth an occasional shot, especially with WCOOP and I believe that $215 2 day mtt on tilt. The mini ftops ME is about as soft as mtt's come at that price range.

I haven't played the 180's in years, but they always seemed like a soft spot and still run frequently enough to do huge volume. I liked the 180's as they offer enough full table action to patiently pick your spots, and the players seem especially inept in the late stages of the tourney. Usually there is a lot of fold equity when it is down to short handed two tables to accumulate some chips.

The final table can be the same way, but my experience at lower stake tourneys is that people panic, don't realize how much play their stacks have remaining, don't consider ICM, and play too loosely considering the all or none preflop nature as stack/blind decreases.

I would play around with sharkscope leaderboards around the stakes you prefer, and see what people's roi's and profits are at the various sites and game formats. From that alone, you can get a good idea of where the soft spots are in sit and goes, ie who's making money and where.

You brought up another good point, the sit and goes are very dependent on the time of day. You will have that figure out the optimal playing time, but believe or not, some sit and goes are softer in the day, while other formats are much better to play at night.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-20-2013 , 02:39 AM
^^+1

This is all good advice. Thanks!
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
08-20-2013 , 05:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DanHartGWS
^^+1

This is all good advice. Thanks!
+2

I would recommend the 180s as a source of backup for your MTTs. I know plenty of regs that grind the 180s just to cover MTT downswings etc, they are still ridic soft.

Yeh I agree $215 are maybe a little steep for $10k bankroll although the odd one as a shot won't do any harm.

GL!
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