PokerStars - 60/120 Ante 15 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 162.21 BB (VPIP: 37.93, PFR: 13.79, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)
MP: 90.99 BB (VPIP: 22.58, PFR: 19.35, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 31)
CO: 82.83 BB (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
Hero (BTN): 122.43 BB
SB: 72.67 BB (VPIP: 23.29, PFR: 9.59, 3Bet Preflop: 2.94, Hands: 73)
BB: 93.07 BB (VPIP: 25.49, PFR: 18.37, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 52)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has Q J

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 4.5 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 3.5 BB

Flop: (11.25 BB, 2 players) A J J
UTG bets 1 BB, Hero raises to 8 BB, UTG calls 7 BB

Turn: (27.25 BB, 2 players) 9
UTG checks, Hero bets 23.5 BB, UTG raises to 47 BB, Hero ???

V limp preflop 6/20
ok maybe i bet too much ott but as played what should we do?

So weird.

Let's assume we can eliminate AA from his range. His utg limp-calling range will be heavily weighted towards medium pairs and some suited connectors. Maybe some Axs. I doubt he's limping AJ/AJs but who knows.

Then he min donk/calls the flop, which often indicates a drawing hand or a monster trying to entice a raise. But without AA what monsters does he have on that flop? KJs? JTs?

Then he x/raises the turn on a seemingly harmless card, so he either flopped a monster or nailed the turn. His range is looking super strong at this point: 99/KJs/QJs/JTs with AJ possible but less likely. I suppose J9s is also possible.

Aside from JTs, can you put him on any hands you beat? Could he have hands like A9s here? Or even something like Axdd?

There's not many players who serial limp and then get really aggressive postflop without the nuts. So I'd pretty much discount bluffs from his range.

The question is what hands does villain decide to just go with? You lose to AJ, J9, 99, JK (plus the unlikely AA). You beat other Jx. Does villain ever really raise anything else? Does villain even raise smaller Jx? It's gross but the range is so narrow and you're behind it.

Villain could check river when called, we could hit boat after calling. But seems likely that when we miss villain now shoves and do we really want to call that off?

Essentially we only beat hands that villain is value raising too wide. I think it's a fold.

Wow what a cooler. Are trips really a bluff catcher here? I suck at hero folding do maybe I shouldn't be replying to this thread.....

The VPIP/PFR gap, the 6/20 limp and the donk-min bet OTF suggest that Villain may be a bad player. As a bad player, it's plausible he's value raising too wide.

Sometimes, he will have J9, but he will have Jx hands, flush draws and some other stuff. I don't think I fold.

well we do beat some value range like JT, J8

His stats looks really fishy.

He can totally have worse for value, he can totally have a combo draw, he can totally have you coolered--only 1/3 outcomes are bad (yeah I realize the composition of his range weights this differently but I doubt it's too far off from this)--never ever folding here. Prob jamming turn bc I want to always realize my equity here and I don't want him setting the price on his draws or being able to get away OTR for free if the draws brick, plus if he's way too wide like a naked ace then a draw completing may kill our action so I want stacks in now. I don't really think it's close IMO. If he just smashed better trips or pulled a miracle random 9 out his ass OTT good for him

Unblocking both Qh AND Qd is really sweet.