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Small Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of small stakes MTT strategy

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Old 07-06-2020, 08:19 AM   #1
Filantropen1
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Do I call large river donk bet on the bubble?

Hi all

I am mostly a cash game player, however, this week I won myself a place in a small 5 euro buy-in tournament. I would like to know what you would have done in the following scenario? Please keep in mind that there were 117 paid places and around 160 players left when it happened and my position was around 100 at the time. BB had a VPIP of 60 and PFR of 3.

Pacific Poker - 8000/16000 Ante 2000 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 21.66 BB
BB: 69.7 BB
UTG: 38.19 BB
UTG+1: 19.38 BB
Hero (MP): 22.13 BB
MP+1: 3.1 BB
MP+2: 26.42 BB
CO: 5.55 BB
BTN: 20.17 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has A Q

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (6.62 BB, 2 players) 5 4 5
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (6.62 BB, 2 players) A
BB checks, Hero bets 2.75 BB, BB calls 2.75 BB

River: (12.12 BB, 2 players) 8
BB bets 12.12 BB, Hero calls 12.12 BB

I did call river bet off. My notes on villain previously from cash game sessions was that villain often could do big bets as bluff with bad bluffing hands. However, I was unaware if he would do the same in a tournament scenario where he was in a good position to go deep in the tournament. I do understand that villain has more fives and flushes in his range even though I block the ace of hearts. Considering that we are on the bubble, would you say calling is a bad play? If yes, would a call still be a bad call if it were in the earlier stages of a tournament?

All answers are appreciated.
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Old 07-06-2020, 09:18 AM   #2
000Puh4u
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Re: Do I call large river donk bet on the bubble?

Your play preflop and on the flop is fine.

On the turn, I would bet bigger for value and also to discurrage villain to draw cheaply to a flush and a straight. Usually avoid betting less than 2/3 pot on the turn.

I think river is a call. You have A of hearts blocking the nut flush draw so it is less likely for villain to have it, which is the main hand they represent. If villain has slowplayed 5x or rivered a straight then so be it, but I think your hand is high on your range of hand to call.

If you did not have the flush blocker, you would may be more inclined of folding.
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Old 07-06-2020, 09:57 AM   #3
Filantropen1
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Re: Do I call large river donk bet on the bubble?

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Originally Posted by 000Puh4u View Post
Your play preflop and on the flop is fine.

On the turn, I would bet bigger for value and also to discurrage villain to draw cheaply to a flush and a straight. Usually avoid betting less than 2/3 pot on the turn.

I think river is a call. You have A of hearts blocking the nut flush draw so it is less likely for villain to have it, which is the main hand they represent. If villain has slowplayed 5x or rivered a straight then so be it, but I think your hand is high on your range of hand to call.

If you did not have the flush blocker, you would may be more inclined of folding.
I agree with your analysis here, the turn bet was probably much smaller than it should have been. I seem to have a bad habit of betting smaller in tournaments due to the smaller stack sizes. I feel like I will become more committed to the pot by betting bigger. However, that thinking can sometimes backfire once draws hit. I feel like larger donk bets on river is rarely a bluff when the flush hits, however, I am not completely sure if its true for the general population. Do you agree on this?
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Old 07-06-2020, 12:17 PM   #4
oldgoat
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Re: Do I call large river donk bet on the bubble?

population really underbluffs these spots esp 60/3 players so the only thing that would give me pause before folding is your read on him as bluffing badly in cash games - but even then would probably fold

Ah blocker makes little difference as he can have any old suited dross calling from BB and would play any flush or 67 the same way
Also the bubble makes little difference - too far away to factor this into your thinking
I would say we run into a flush or straight about 3/4 of the time ( and occasionally hands like A8) - so not a profitable call
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Old 07-08-2020, 05:41 AM   #5
Filantropen1
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Re: Do I call large river donk bet on the bubble?

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Originally Posted by oldgoat View Post
population really underbluffs these spots esp 60/3 players so the only thing that would give me pause before folding is your read on him as bluffing badly in cash games - but even then would probably fold

Ah blocker makes little difference as he can have any old suited dross calling from BB and would play any flush or 67 the same way
Also the bubble makes little difference - too far away to factor this into your thinking
I would say we run into a flush or straight about 3/4 of the time ( and occasionally hands like A8) - so not a profitable call
I agree with you river donk bets tends to be strong, especially from these passive players with a huge VPIP/PFR ratio. I think the reason why I called was that I was pretty short stacked and my notes on the opponent. However, I should have known better. I think recreational players are less likely to bluff in tournaments when they are in a good position to go deep since they dont want to mess up a nice score.
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Old 07-08-2020, 08:38 AM   #6
oldgoat
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Re: Do I call large river donk bet on the bubble?

yes my theory is that people like to come away from a tournament thinking that they have been unlucky & with a little more luck they would have scored big etc
when you have a bluff called you inevitably feel a bit stupid - even if it was actually a good play & people don't like to come away feeling they've messed up. In a cash game much easier to shrug and rebuy
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