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Small Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of small stakes MTT strategy

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Old 04-23-2021, 07:25 AM   #1
ypoons
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PKO Tournament: calling in BB at Moneybubble.

16.5$ PKO

Position 9th of 10
8 players paid.
Stack: 11,5 BB
8th player has a stack of 23BB

All players fold to SB. SB jams allin for 33BB. I have 66. What to do?

My considerations:
1. SB has jammed 4 times when folded to him, so I believe he is - correctly - jamming very wide. I think he can jam 100% but even if he is just jamming 50% I am clearly ahead with 66.

2. Ofcourse I know that I should call tigtht at the moneybubble with a short stack. But here I have a very small stack in relation to the other players, so I have to take risks. I definetly ca't fold into the money.

So I tend to a call but I have no idea what ICM would say here. What's your oppinion.
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Old 04-23-2021, 09:26 AM   #2
Darth_Maul
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Re: PKO Tournament: calling in BB at Moneybubble.

Glad to see a PKO hand posted.

You fold. Small pairs are garbage in the later stages of PKOs when you're a bounty target. Its probably correct for him to shove almost any 2 there, and 66 is never going to be very far ahead of his range.

Pretend it isn't a PKO: would you call off your stack in a likely flip spot on the bubble of a regular tourney?
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Old 04-23-2021, 10:37 AM   #3
ypoons
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Re: PKO Tournament: calling in BB at Moneybubble.

Well, it doesnt't matter much here if it is a PKO hand. If he is really shoving any 2 I'm about a 2 to 1 favorit against his range.
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Old 04-23-2021, 01:06 PM   #4
Darth_Maul
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Re: PKO Tournament: calling in BB at Moneybubble.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ypoons View Post
Well, it doesnt't matter much here if it is a PKO hand. If he is really shoving any 2 I'm about a 2 to 1 favorit against his range.
You are at best 63% against any 2 but most players aren't going to actually shove any 2 in spots where they can. If he's shoving 70% of hands, your equity drops below 60%. The point is, do you want to be making a somewhat marginal call for your stack on the bubble?
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Old 04-23-2021, 02:50 PM   #5
ypoons
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Re: PKO Tournament: calling in BB at Moneybubble.

Yes, I understand your point. But my problem here is that the 8 players ahead of me have at least double the stack I have. So I have to do something and at some point make a stand. That was my thought in this spot. By the way I dont think that calling with 63% is a marginal call. And you are right, I dont think that the player in the SB is really shoving 100%, I expect 60-70 % migtht be correct.
So when I dont call in this spots, what is then my strategy in this situation? This is a real question not a criticism of your answer. With 10 BB I cant reshove because I dont have any fold equity, especially not in a PKO tournament. Push first in to steal the blinds. I'm not sure if this is really working.

Another question: what would be the lowest hand I should call in this spot?
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Old 04-23-2021, 03:53 PM   #6
Darth_Maul
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Re: PKO Tournament: calling in BB at Moneybubble.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ypoons View Post
Yes, I understand your point. But my problem here is that the 8 players ahead of me have at least double the stack I have. So I have to do something and at some point make a stand. That was my thought in this spot. By the way I dont think that calling with 63% is a marginal call. And you are right, I dont think that the player in the SB is really shoving 100%, I expect 60-70 % migtht be correct.

So when I dont call in this spots, what is then my strategy in this situation? This is a real question not a criticism of your answer. With 10 BB I cant reshove because I dont have any fold equity, especially not in a PKO tournament. Push first in to steal the blinds. I'm not sure if this is really working.



Another question: what would be the lowest hand I should call in this spot?
What's more important than the stacks ahead of you is the one in 9th. If he's sitting with 2bb, you should be folding almost 100%.
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Old 04-26-2021, 12:22 AM   #7
Raistlyn M
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Re: PKO Tournament: calling in BB at Moneybubble.

Need HH/payouts to give a real answer.
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Old 04-29-2021, 10:58 AM   #8
ledn
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Re: PKO Tournament: calling in BB at Moneybubble.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth_Maul View Post
What's more important than the stacks ahead of you is the one in 9th. If he's sitting with 2bb, you should be folding almost 100%.
We are in 9th/10 do you mean the one in 10th? I don't think the shortest stack is very relevant when we are in 9th with half the stack of 8th here. If we were 8th/9 with 8 cashing and 9th having 2bb then we fold almost everything.


We also have to consider future EV of getting a double up and potentially covering people for bounties.

I would say the stack disparity between 8th and 9th leads me to wanting to close my eyes and hope I hold. If several other stacks had 10 blinds then lean toward folding. We just arent likely enough to cash by folding to pass up a 60% equity spot IMO.

Of course with more accurate info on payouts and stack sizes, this can be calculated in ICMizer.

Last edited by ledn; 04-29-2021 at 11:05 AM.
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Old 04-30-2021, 10:14 AM   #9
Darth_Maul
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Re: PKO Tournament: calling in BB at Moneybubble.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ledn View Post
We are in 9th/10 do you mean the one in 10th? I don't think the shortest stack is very relevant when we are in 9th with half the stack of 8th here. If we were 8th/9 with 8 cashing and 9th having 2bb then we fold almost everything.


We also have to consider future EV of getting a double up and potentially covering people for bounties.

I would say the stack disparity between 8th and 9th leads me to wanting to close my eyes and hope I hold. If several other stacks had 10 blinds then lean toward folding. We just arent likely enough to cash by folding to pass up a 60% equity spot IMO.

Of course with more accurate info on payouts and stack sizes, this can be calculated in ICMizer.
Yes I misread, I thought hero was 8th of 9 with 8 spots paid.
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Old 04-30-2021, 02:18 PM   #10
Colinb7
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Re: PKO Tournament: calling in BB at Moneybubble.

I think it’s a call. PKO is relevant for the fact villain should shove wider, and also relevant because you have almost zero fold equity in future hands! As pointed out, if 8/9 with eight paid it’s a fold.
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Old 04-30-2021, 05:50 PM   #11
killer_kill
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Re: PKO Tournament: calling in BB at Moneybubble.

There's no way I'm folding 66 when SB jams on the bubble hoping to mincash. ICM isn't the end all be all and it doesn't account for future EV.
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Old 05-01-2021, 07:00 AM   #12
Panny1
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Re: PKO Tournament: calling in BB at Moneybubble.

Yeah seems like a very standard call, even on the exact bubble. We also want a stack to grab some juicy bounties further on, and getting itm is worth less in PKOs anyways
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