16.5$ PKO

Position 9th of 10
8 players paid.
Stack: 11,5 BB
8th player has a stack of 23BB

All players fold to SB. SB jams allin for 33BB. I have 66. What to do?

My considerations:
1. SB has jammed 4 times when folded to him, so I believe he is - correctly - jamming very wide. I think he can jam 100% but even if he is just jamming 50% I am clearly ahead with 66.

2. Ofcourse I know that I should call tigtht at the moneybubble with a short stack. But here I have a very small stack in relation to the other players, so I have to take risks. I definetly ca't fold into the money.

So I tend to a call but I have no idea what ICM would say here. What's your oppinion.

Glad to see a PKO hand posted.

You fold. Small pairs are garbage in the later stages of PKOs when you're a bounty target. Its probably correct for him to shove almost any 2 there, and 66 is never going to be very far ahead of his range.

Pretend it isn't a PKO: would you call off your stack in a likely flip spot on the bubble of a regular tourney?

Well, it doesnt't matter much here if it is a PKO hand. If he is really shoving any 2 I'm about a 2 to 1 favorit against his range.

You are at best 63% against any 2 but most players aren't going to actually shove any 2 in spots where they can. If he's shoving 70% of hands, your equity drops below 60%. The point is, do you want to be making a somewhat marginal call for your stack on the bubble?

Yes, I understand your point. But my problem here is that the 8 players ahead of me have at least double the stack I have. So I have to do something and at some point make a stand. That was my thought in this spot. By the way I dont think that calling with 63% is a marginal call. And you are right, I dont think that the player in the SB is really shoving 100%, I expect 60-70 % migtht be correct.
So when I dont call in this spots, what is then my strategy in this situation? This is a real question not a criticism of your answer. With 10 BB I cant reshove because I dont have any fold equity, especially not in a PKO tournament. Push first in to steal the blinds. I'm not sure if this is really working.

Another question: what would be the lowest hand I should call in this spot?

What's more important than the stacks ahead of you is the one in 9th. If he's sitting with 2bb, you should be folding almost 100%.

Need HH/payouts to give a real answer.

We are in 9th/10 do you mean the one in 10th? I don't think the shortest stack is very relevant when we are in 9th with half the stack of 8th here. If we were 8th/9 with 8 cashing and 9th having 2bb then we fold almost everything.


We also have to consider future EV of getting a double up and potentially covering people for bounties.

I would say the stack disparity between 8th and 9th leads me to wanting to close my eyes and hope I hold. If several other stacks had 10 blinds then lean toward folding. We just arent likely enough to cash by folding to pass up a 60% equity spot IMO.

Of course with more accurate info on payouts and stack sizes, this can be calculated in ICMizer.

Yes I misread, I thought hero was 8th of 9 with 8 spots paid.

I think it’s a call. PKO is relevant for the fact villain should shove wider, and also relevant because you have almost zero fold equity in future hands! As pointed out, if 8/9 with eight paid it’s a fold.

There's no way I'm folding 66 when SB jams on the bubble hoping to mincash. ICM isn't the end all be all and it doesn't account for future EV.

Yeah seems like a very standard call, even on the exact bubble. We also want a stack to grab some juicy bounties further on, and getting itm is worth less in PKOs anyways