this just has to be a shove pre surely???

8% ante 9 handed, SB, 19bb, 54s open jam?

Hello,

This is my first post ever here on 2+2, so bare with me. I have no hand specifics, just a general question. At the low stakes, is raise-folding a profitable strategy late in MTT's? I find myself busting with a middling stack a lot on FT bubbles in high equity spots because I make +Chip Ev shoves and run into it a lot.

Is this just me being results oriented? Variance? ICM work? Any help would be appreciated!

Thanks.

Depends on chip stacks.

There are certain player pools who will shove over a raise with only their best hands, so you are probably quite safe to raise-fold a lot in those games.

I've been running pretty hot over the last few weeks.
Played 12 €20 live single day MTT's and my ROI is up to 50%

How many of these should I play before I get a decently reliably idea of whether I'm a winning player or not? My guess is around 50/100?

100 seems a bit low, maybe 20,000 hands you can mess around with the variance calculator https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Yes shove especially if BB is overfolding alot

Quick question regarding bankroll for micro/small MTTs.

Recently started playing again with a $150 on stars from years ago, taking shots $0.5-3 MTTs. Made it up to $900 within 500 games and started playing $3-11, including some turbos. Last couple hundred of games were pitiful, no scores whatsover, roll down to $600. Before that the avg buy-in was $5.5 and I was wondering if I should cut off $11s and make current selection $2-8.

What kind of brm do you guys follow? Is 100avgBI good enough or does variance really hurts at big field tourneys?

Field size and ROI have big impacts on BRM.

The higher you go the more variance you will face (in relation to $$) as your ROI drops.

Sounds like you had some serious run good to make $750 over 500 games at $.5-3 per game.

I would play the lower stakes until you are sure you are beating them before moving up.

Here is a tournament variance calculator. Only problem is you need to estimate your ROI which is impossible to do with a low sample size.

https://www.primedope.com/tournament...ce-calculator/

So this thread has been super inactive but I think it would suit my beginner-style question, regarding cbetting.

I think I do understand quite a few aspects of when to c-bet and how much, but lately I have been re-doubting one spot that occurs so often. Let's say we are >50 BB deep and have AQ in late position (CO/BTN), open to 2.2 and get called by BB. Now flop is something like J73 BB checks - now do we cbet here or not?

My thoughts: this is a very dry board which has missed V's range often enough and we have a clear range advantage because we have all overpairs and more strong Js etc. So we can cbet frequently and smallish (~1/3 pot) and expect to pick up the pot decent amount of the time with a lot of our range. However, AQ is here exactly a hand that doesn't benefit from a cbet because we are unlikely to fold out better hands and won't get called by worse. Therefore AQ is a good check behind and try to get to showdown cheaply if we don't improve, calling off one potential bet. Is this a sound/ok strategy against most opponents at the lower stakes MTTs?

It's probably one of the things that the computer says can go both ways. In reality it depends how villains play.

1) if your read is that villains are folding anything worse than AQ to a 1/3 pot c-bet on that flop then I hope you're c-betting it tons.

2) even rubbish hands like 62 still have about 25% equity (slightly more if the have a backdraw flush, slightly less without), and they aren't going to put in any more money until they are ahead. You'd prefer them to fold (or float your bet) rather than let them have 2 free cards.

3) if you're against the kind of villains who will float these small bets e.g. with a gutshot and then bluff you off later when you slow down (e.g. you check behind turn and they come out firing on the river whether they've hit or not), then it's less good to do a c-bet.

Alright - yeah I guess that makes sense. Two follow-up questions: if we decide to cbet AQ, what is our checking range? Is this a spot that we just bet 100%? Or do we still want to check behind 7x and worse Jx?

Question 2 - Same cards, but now I opened from CO and BTN calls. Playing this now OOP and against a stronger range, do we tend to check or cbet more often?

Our checking range doesn't depend on what we do with AQ. We are playing each individual hand against Villain's range and tendencies. This is a misconception from using solvers where both players have unlocked ranges (so our playing AQ a certain way affects villain's responses, which affects how we should play other hands). Villain's range and actions are locked so we (just like a solver would) choose the best move with each individual hand without reference to other hands.

Assuming the bet-size is 1/3 pot, then I'd probably bet everything here rather than give free cards. The J and 7 will get called by more than you expect and they also can benefit from folding overs. Almost a quarter of the deck is an overcard to the J and about half of it is an overcard to the 7.

Maybe I didn't formulate it well - I meant more as in: when we decide/assess that the best play with AQ vs Villains (locked) range is to cbet, is there any hand at all that we want to check behind?

Right, that's what I put in my second paragraph.

Not really.

There are too many overcards to a 7 (2 overcards basically has a 25% chance of overtaking us), a J can get value now (e.g. again a 7 or gutshot) that it might not get later if overcards come on the turn or river.

Again, this is with the read that villains are overfolding to a 1/3 bet here. If you have some kind of agro opponent who automatically going to bet out on the turn as soon as you check flop then it might be different of course.