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Muck the Overpair or Go Down with the Ship? Muck the Overpair or Go Down with the Ship?

06-24-2019 , 06:35 PM
Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 800/1600 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 15.09 BB (VPIP: 27.50, PFR: 30.56, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 41)
UTG: 18.65 BB (VPIP: 4.17, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
Hero (UTG+1): 30.81 BB
MP: 63.36 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
MP+1: 13.77 BB (VPIP: 19.73, PFR: 15.19, 3Bet Preflop: 11.40, Hands: 303)
MP+2: 72.95 BB (VPIP: 61.54, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
CO: 66.74 BB (VPIP: 30.38, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 79)
BTN: 23.85 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
SB: 48.09 BB (VPIP: 24.00, PFR: 19.44, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 75)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has K K

fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, MP+2 calls 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (6.62 BB, 2 players) T 7 9
Hero bets 4 BB, MP+2 calls 4 BB

Turn: (14.62 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 7.31 BB, Hero calls 7.31 BB

River: (29.25 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 59.52 BB and is all-in, fold

MP+2 wins 29.25 BB


As I reviewed this hand I realized I had unsure decision on all 3 postflop streets.

Seemed like an auto cbet in-game, but maybe a check is more suitable for this board type OOP at these depths?

X/call on the turn seem ok?

River fold seemed like the easiest decision to me as I had a pure bluff-catcher by that point it felt.


I'm open to criticisms and feedback on anything you guys notice, thanks.
Muck the Overpair or Go Down with the Ship? Quote
06-26-2019 , 04:33 PM
This is interesting hand. Before time I played it like you but now I c/c flop, c/c turn. Its less variance and is more ev, this is what I watched/read about that kind of spots.
Muck the Overpair or Go Down with the Ship? Quote
06-27-2019 , 04:45 AM
I see your point about x/c flop and/or turn but i think there are just too many scare cards for us on the turn??

I like betting 5bbs on the flop
Muck the Overpair or Go Down with the Ship? Quote
06-27-2019 , 07:44 AM
Super nitty fold
What 8x V have?
He is playing 60/18 in 13 hands
Why you check turn??

Bet bet bet with this hand is the best line with this runout

You underrepresented your hand to try to catch bluffs, then bluftcatch it FFS!!
As played call river. If he has it, nice. Open lobby and register for other tournament. That's the beauty of playing online
Muck the Overpair or Go Down with the Ship? Quote
06-28-2019 , 02:14 AM
I like the way you played it but I call river after x/c turn. We are underrepped, nothing has changed and we have less than 1:1 SPR otr so are fairly committed and are getting better than 2-1 on the call. We will lose sometimes here when we call but we are fairly high up in our range and he can play some QJ and spades like this (even tho we hold the blocker its still possible). We also need to some river calls in our range that take this line otherwise we have none and leave ourselves open to getting bluffed. (If you fold this, whats hands do you call otr?)

In theory he should not be showing up with too much 8x here to utg raise 9max, only 88 and some A8s really, although as chip leader he can have some suited conntectors sometimes

Last edited by wowsooooted; 06-28-2019 at 02:19 AM.
Muck the Overpair or Go Down with the Ship? Quote
06-28-2019 , 12:20 PM
I don't see how we can call the river bet. Sure he could be bluffing a missed flush or straight draw, but we now lose to all middle pocket pairs 66-TT along with any lone 8 or 6.

The bet size is polarized, but his line screams strength.

I would bet a little bigger pf, bet the flop and bet the turn. Facing a raise on the turn is tough, but no tougher than the spot we find ourselves in now.
Muck the Overpair or Go Down with the Ship? Quote
06-28-2019 , 02:26 PM
1/2 on turn and 60% on river is polarized?
After hero opens and cbet (like 99% players do in this stakes) then shut down the betting....

Guys, from V perspective this is an auto profit spot. Doesn't need to be a good player to bluff out your hand

He is putting chips in the pot in the passive way in 63% of hands ( small sample , but you get the idea)
He has a stack 2X of Hero.

For what I think you get bluffed by A5o or KJo or whatever trash he flat call pre
Muck the Overpair or Go Down with the Ship? Quote
06-28-2019 , 04:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pouled
1/2 on turn and 60% on river is polarized?
After hero opens and cbet (like 99% players do in this stakes) then shut down the betting....

Guys, from V perspective this is an auto profit spot. Doesn't need to be a good player to bluff out your hand

He is putting chips in the pot in the passive way in 63% of hands ( small sample , but you get the idea)
He has a stack 2X of Hero.

For what I think you get bluffed by A5o or KJo or whatever trash he flat call pre
What a good villain should do and what we expect the villain to do here are very different things.

He most definitely will be polarized with this river bet. When he bets that is almost guaranteed to be full houses and some straights here along with bluffs. Passive villains showing this much aggression on a 4 straight paired board doesn't seem like a great bluff catching spot.
Muck the Overpair or Go Down with the Ship? Quote
06-28-2019 , 07:53 PM
I think an aggressive player is raising the flop here with a set more often then not.
Muck the Overpair or Go Down with the Ship? Quote
06-29-2019 , 06:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wowsooooted
I like the way you played it but I call river after x/c turn. We are underrepped, nothing has changed and we have less than 1:1 SPR otr so are fairly committed and are getting better than 2-1 on the call. We will lose sometimes here when we call but we are fairly high up in our range and he can play some QJ and spades like this (even tho we hold the blocker its still possible). We also need to some river calls in our range that take this line otherwise we have none and leave ourselves open to getting bluffed. (If you fold this, whats hands do you call otr?)

In theory he should not be showing up with too much 8x here to utg raise 9max, only 88 and some A8s really, although as chip leader he can have some suited conntectors sometimes
wow IMO i think you are being a bit too GTO with your thought process in this spot?

Against top level players then i see the need to have a balanced check-call range on this run out but i don't think said villain will be balanced himself

IMO he is weighted towards value which i assume means our line should be more weighted to check-folds??

Having said all that i think that the running sixes come thus nullifying all other two pairs makes this situation different

IMO we should have folded turn
Muck the Overpair or Go Down with the Ship? Quote
07-02-2019 , 09:27 AM
Shouldn't be calling turn when river bricks like that, plus you are under repping your hand massively in this spot.
You didn't evaluate the call on the turn to look to fold brick rivers.
Muck the Overpair or Go Down with the Ship? Quote
07-02-2019 , 10:48 PM
Lots of villains who play 60+% of hands will think a T is the nuts here and keep betting.

The 6 counterfeits 2pair and the flush missed.

As played call river.

If you want to fold then do so on the turn.

I'm inclined to pick my overpairs as spots to call down bluffs.
Muck the Overpair or Go Down with the Ship? Quote
07-03-2019 , 08:46 PM
I play it exactly the same except I call the river . . . Oh well if he has a 6 or an 8.
Muck the Overpair or Go Down with the Ship? Quote
07-03-2019 , 11:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePokerBot
wow IMO i think you are being a bit too GTO with your thought process in this spot?

Against top level players then i see the need to have a balanced check-call range on this run out but i don't think said villain will be balanced himself

IMO he is weighted towards value which i assume means our line should be more weighted to check-folds??

Having said all that i think that the running sixes come thus nullifying all other two pairs makes this situation different

IMO we should have folded turn
If you have an exploitative read/style then I can see a fold otr being ok.. in a vac it might be ok to split your range and fold when you hold a spade and call when you don't as we are in better shape vs his range. But even still its a slippery slope and I don't think I personally ever would fold any combo of KK in game.

One thing you have to be super careful of here is you don't make a habit of folding everytime your at the top of your range otherwise your guna have a bad time, esp vs aggro players.. when we are getting better than 2-1 otr he can literally show us a better hand 2/3 times and we make more money than coming all this way then mucking
Muck the Overpair or Go Down with the Ship? Quote
07-03-2019 , 11:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by recondite7
I don't see how we can call the river bet. Sure he could be bluffing a missed flush or straight draw, but we now lose to all middle pocket pairs 66-TT along with any lone 8 or 6.

The bet size is polarized, but his line screams strength.

I would bet a little bigger pf, bet the flop and bet the turn. Facing a raise on the turn is tough, but no tougher than the spot we find ourselves in now.
I rekn 66-TT is very likely to raise flop on wet board and his 6x is fairly limited calling an utg raise pre and flop cb with 2 also being there. Sure he can still show up with it time to time but the probability is low compared to other scenarios imo.

Yes his river bet is fairly polar so I think its mostly 8x or air
Muck the Overpair or Go Down with the Ship? Quote

      
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