Hi all,

I've been grinding low stakes MTT's on Pokerstars for years, but I'm taking it more seriously since June this year. I've played 732 tournaments and got the following results:

Total buyins: $8043
Total profit: + $5123 (ROI: ~62%)
ITM: 20.9%
Hours played: 507 (~ $10 / hour)
Average buyin: Around $12-15 (I play $5.50s, $11s, $16.50s, $22s and some $33s lately)

In these tournaments I've played around 50.000 hands with these stats.
Not sure these stats are as useful as in cashgames because of constantly changing blinds, but they should say something?
VP/PFR: 24/17
3Bet: 6.38
WTSD%: 47%
W$ at SD: 55%
An interesting stat I'm not sure how to interpret: My Avg All-in Equity is 50.1%. Should I interpret this is fine since you're always getting better odds than 50% when going All-in? And of course this completely ignores the Fold Equity you have when pushing. So this confuses me a bit

I have the feeling my play is getting much better, but I'm also aware I've to learn more, especially about shortstack situations.

My question: Can I cautiously(!) assume I'm a winning player on small stakes MTTs after 732 tournaments or do I need like 2k/3k more? My ROI seems a bit high, I might be running good? I had some nice deep runs to be fair.

I'm happy I have the bankroll to continue playing and would love to end 2017 nicely and go for an even better 2018.

Any advice is welcome of course

I'd work on bringing the VPIP and PFR closer together. But you should also dig into the more detailed stats to check your play - positional stats, blind play, that kind of thing.

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Thanks for your advice. I'm already looking to 3-bet more and call less with marginal hands, which should bring VPIP and PFR closer, and 3-bet a bit higher.

You are on a heater obviously, probably playing too high buyins after good run. 6k is just 200 buyins at $30 level, you can burn all ur profit in one day lol. Find a real job but it doesnt mean you are not a winning player. Just dont have 200 years to be sure

He is playing a $12ish ABI or so, so that would be 500-600 buyins and he never said what his total bankroll was, he merely said what he played and how much he has won.

That said, you are 100% on a heater based on only 732 games. But that doesn't mean you also couldn't potentially be that good and keep it up. It is possible to beat those limits by strong regs for 50%+, but you definitely will want a far bigger sample size to determine that. I would say it's certainly a good sign if you are up over your first 732 tracked games, especially if it isn't one big score and then nothing else. If you've been consistently getting deep and closing small to medium scores, then you're definitely showing signs of a winning player.

Thanks for your reply.

Yes, I already assumed I'm on a heater I don't really get the '200 years' remark. What do you mean by that, bosynurek? That the long run takes too long to achieve?

sattelite84, yes my ABI is around $12 and I'm not looking to up that by a lot. I just keep playing the same 7.50, 11, 16.50 and 22 tournaments and see where I get. I also study a bit besides playing, which of course is necessary to stay a winning player. My winnings are not from 1 big score, I made like 5 final tables, and cashed in around 20% of my tournaments.

So, what is a number of tournaments that says more about your skill? I know in cashgames after 50k hands it definitely says something if you're -5bb/100 or +5bb/100. So I assumed in tournament poker it's also saying a bit ;-)

Thanks for your replies and good luck at the tables!

It doesn't really matter whether you're on a heater or how many tourneys you need for a good sample size. Just keep analyzing your play, looking for leaks, opportunities to improve, etc - regardless of the results.

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Thanks. That makes a lot of sense of course. I will! :-)

What's your bb/100 looking like so far?