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Old 09-27-2020, 02:29 PM   #1
Captain-Hindsight
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Mini sunday Milli - Turning TPNK into a bluff - A4s on 3AK-5-K

Hi guys, not playing with a HUD but V hasn't raised any alarm bells, probably a decent reg

PokerStars, $20 + $2 - Hold'em No Limit - 80/160 (16 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG: 4,958 (31 bb)
UTG+1: 13,568 (85 bb)
MP: 19,694 (123 bb)
MP+1: 9,168 (57 bb)
LP: 11,547 (72 bb)
CO (Hero): 7,526 (47 bb)
BU: 26,290 (164 bb)
SB: 17,310 (108 bb)
BB: 8,848 (55 bb)

Pre-Flop: (384) Hero is CO with 4 A
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to 320, 3 players fold, Hero calls 320, 3 players fold

Flop: (1,024) 3 A K (2 players)
UTG+1 bets 512, Hero calls 512

Turn: (2,048) 5 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets 1,024, Hero calls 1,024

River: (4,096) K (2 players)
UTG+1 bets 1,440, Hero raises to 5,654 (all-in)

I wasn't sure if having the ace in my hand here was good or bad for my bluff. Calling was another option but I thought his range still has a fair few bigger aces that would play like this. Could fold obviously but that river seems like it was one of the best cards to turn my hand into a bluff..

appreciate your thoughts.
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Old 09-30-2020, 05:54 AM   #2
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Re: Mini sunday Milli - Turning TPNK into a bluff - A4s on 3AK-5-K

I’m sympathetic with your line but bear in mind you have 0/close to 0 combos of AK and he has them all (and he should be putting some in this smaller riv sizing), plus he has AA and KK so it’s not like the river destroys him or you have the right to go haywire.

You probably concluded that he was not often bluffing this size on river, but he could sometimes with his lowest showdown to get you off busted clubs, but if he’s really thinking he’d realise you don’t have many with the Ac and Kc on board.

Blocker effects: You block AK and AA but also the hands you want him to fold like AJ so unsure on net impact.

A good rule of thumb is to not try to get people to fold top pair in fishy tournaments. Like half the job was getting a good read (he probably has top pair this line) then you have to decide how to capitalise. You went for immediate $ and I think some forget that folding is also $ and feel they must win the hand to cash in their read. As long as you considered folding I think it’s okay but I prefer a fold in this donkament.
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Old 09-30-2020, 09:00 AM   #3
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Re: Mini sunday Milli - Turning TPNK into a bluff - A4s on 3AK-5-K

Completely agree with bearer. Especially the last paragraph.

Villains 0.5pot - 0.5pot - 0.25pot betting looks a loooot like value. The only bluffs would be JTcc, QJcc, QTcc (if he even chooses to fire the river with these). If all the rest of the combinations are value, I'm not terribly worried about getting bluffed here at a meaningful frequency.

Calling flop, calling turn (especially having turned the gutshot) and folding river seems super reasonable.

I suppose OTR the plan is to fold out specifically AJ and AQ, as AT is probably slowing down at some point. Even AJ might not go for 3 streets. I guess A3s and A5s might be perceived to take this line as well, betting the R for a cheap showdown or whatever. I'd assume these find a check somewhere along the lines, though.
For value there's 33, KK, AA, AK.
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Old 09-30-2020, 12:43 PM   #4
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Re: Mini sunday Milli - Turning TPNK into a bluff - A4s on 3AK-5-K

thanks guys appreciate the feedback
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Old 10-01-2020, 01:49 AM   #5
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Re: Mini sunday Milli - Turning TPNK into a bluff - A4s on 3AK-5-K

Holding a queen in your hand would have been better.
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Old 10-01-2020, 07:27 AM   #6
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Re: Mini sunday Milli - Turning TPNK into a bluff - A4s on 3AK-5-K

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Originally Posted by Colin_Piddle View Post
Holding a queen in your hand would have been better.

Agreed... but there really arenít any Qx hands we get to the river with besides AQ and Qxcc which I think you can agree are worse for bluffing river


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Old 10-01-2020, 01:20 PM   #7
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Re: Mini sunday Milli - Turning TPNK into a bluff - A4s on 3AK-5-K

What are you even folding out anyways? AJ/AQ? Do those even bet three streets like this? I'd think they have to mostly slow down on the river somewhat.
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Old 10-01-2020, 09:20 PM   #8
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Re: Mini sunday Milli - Turning TPNK into a bluff - A4s on 3AK-5-K

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Originally Posted by killer_kill View Post
What are you even folding out anyways? AJ/AQ? Do those even bet three streets like this? I'd think they have to mostly slow down on the river somewhat.
I think he has AJ maybe AT, and some FD too.. tbh here I was thinking more about what he doesn't have as what he does. basically no Kx in his range and the only other hands that can call my jam here are his boats and big hero calls.
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Old 10-02-2020, 03:24 PM   #9
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Re: Mini sunday Milli - Turning TPNK into a bluff - A4s on 3AK-5-K

You're not folding enough combos and you don't have credible value (AAA/AK full/KKKK) you at best basically rep AQ.
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Old 10-02-2020, 03:31 PM   #10
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Re: Mini sunday Milli - Turning TPNK into a bluff - A4s on 3AK-5-K

I donít think itís unreasonable to rep KJ, KQ, 33 here


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Old 10-02-2020, 09:22 PM   #11
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Re: Mini sunday Milli - Turning TPNK into a bluff - A4s on 3AK-5-K

Didn't state this explicitly but you definitely caught him on a bad river with a ridic trips imbalance.

Wouldn't even worry about this hand. It's a thoughtful play that will work a lot, but sometimes you get snapped or hero'ed.
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Old 10-02-2020, 09:44 PM   #12
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Re: Mini sunday Milli - Turning TPNK into a bluff - A4s on 3AK-5-K

33 should fold pre, KJs prob folds turn and is 2 combos, KQs is possible but is also 2 combos. You can maybe have KQo but are you just calling all your combos on the turn?
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Old 10-03-2020, 08:05 AM   #13
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Re: Mini sunday Milli - Turning TPNK into a bluff - A4s on 3AK-5-K

I hear what you're saying and in general I agree with you, but I think you and I are asking different questions. You're looking at what combos do I have that jam river, and the answer as you pointed out is probably not many. I'm asking what combos can I rep that jam river... V has 40-100 hands on us not 400-1000, he has no idea if we fold our kings on the turn or if we flat 33 pre.

I agree with what others have said, it's probably break even to slightly +/- play and I don't think there is too much more we can draw from this hand.
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Old 10-03-2020, 03:05 PM   #14
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Re: Mini sunday Milli - Turning TPNK into a bluff - A4s on 3AK-5-K

Ok and when you don't have reads on people you should default that they are playing optimal and not doing stuff to fit justify a punt. I'm not sure what you mean by do you have vs what you rep. Those are exactly the same thing unless you aren't actually putting the combos in to make it that you actually have that range. I'm stating that the default play is to fold 33 and as such villain should play based on that. Is it possible you play poorly and have 33 but we don't have that read (we're villain) and have to act as such.
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Old 10-03-2020, 08:18 PM   #15
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Re: Mini sunday Milli - Turning TPNK into a bluff - A4s on 3AK-5-K

Nice idea but pretty inadvisable bluffing into an uncapped range, Villain can still have AA KK AK pretty easily and we can't
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Old 10-05-2020, 07:58 AM   #16
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Re: Mini sunday Milli - Turning TPNK into a bluff - A4s on 3AK-5-K

No way is 33 a pure fold pre, closer to pure call. UTG1 should protect you from reckless squeezing.

Even it were a mistake, this is a mistake we expect in Mini SM.
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