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07-19-2018 , 10:07 PM

Gooeyfied

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 46

I posted a hand earlier in which I tried a resteal shove with JTs. Pokerstove shows me having 41% raw equity. How do I calculate how often he needs to fold to make this a correct play?

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07-19-2018 , 10:15 PM

Gooeyfied

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 46

I mean is it as simple as he needs to fold 59% of the time to break even?

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07-19-2018 , 10:23 PM

SHIP_DAT

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 280

No it depends on blinds antes open size and your stack. If you 1000 into a pot of 100 you need your opponent to fold 90% of the time if you have no equity at all. As you increase hand equity you need less FE.

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07-19-2018 , 10:42 PM

Gooeyfied

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 46

Redchippoker's free fold equity calculator shows villain has to fold 33% to break even. Im pretty sure hes folding over 33% with his 27% OR stat.

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07-20-2018 , 12:18 AM

SHIP_DAT

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 280

Do you have JTs vs. 27%? You have to look at his 27% pfr (really his HJ rfi) and his optimal calling range vs JTs. You're not getting 41% if his calling range is TT+, AJs, AQ. But if it is, you have a ton of fold equity considering he's opening 27%. It is def a +ev jam fwiw vs that range but when called you are often dominated. It's a hand that plays well postflop and taking a flop is probs higher EV than jamming. I'd rather stack off an A7o or 22 pre. JTs is going to give a lot of c/r for stacks opportunities otf. Any OESD or gutter w/ BDFD, flush draws etc I'm x/r'ing all in.

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07-20-2018 , 01:55 AM

Gooeyfied

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 46

Initially i ran it against 27% but i realized it should be against his calling range which i came him 11% and that equals around 36% equity for me. I figured I had a more likely chance of taking it down preflop rather than seeing a flop with 11bb behind. It does play really well post flop for sure

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07-20-2018 , 01:12 PM

SHIP_DAT

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 280

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gooeyfied

If he's calling 11% and opening 27% then 11/27 he's calling 40%. You generate folds and pick up pot 60% then you add your hand equity on the 40% so you risk x to win y 60% of the time. The other 40% you risk x to win x-z(however much it is to call)+y

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07-20-2018 , 01:32 PM

jjpregler

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,974

The overall ev formula is:

Fold equity + call equity = total equity.

In a made up situation, using folds 60% of the time, with a 300 pot, and you are shoving 1500 with 30% equity when called, this is what the equation will look like:

60% * 300 + 40%[(3300 * 30%) - 1500] = - 24 cEV.

Now to find out the fold % needed for a profit just use some algebra:

a * 300 + (1 - a)([3300 * 30%) - 1500] = 0, solve for a.

a = 63%

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07-20-2018 , 01:59 PM

Gooeyfied

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 46

Nice!! Thanks for the replies guys. I'm happy with my play here overall

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