Getting back into mtts and probably made a mistake here. $85 tourney at a local casino, early. Hero has around $22k, villain about $30k.

Blinds: $75/150, hero in MP, villain directly to my left.

Folds to hero and Hero dealt AcAh raises to $450. Villain flats, all others fold. Pot 1125.

Flop Q 10 4 with two diamonds.

Hero bets $500. Villain raises to $3k. Hero calls. Pot now $4125

Turn: 6s. Hero check. Villain bets $6k. Hero thinks hen calls. Pot now $16125

River: 2h. Hero checks, villain jams for more tHan heros stack.


Hero tanks. Don't have much info on villain. Only about 10 hands in. I hate to get so involved in a pot this early. I usually avoid this but again, I'm just getting back into MTTs. My thoughts are that a lot of draws miss here, straight and flush. Also, AQ is beat but I doubt he fires that much with AQ. His range definitely has 44 and 1010 in it, maybe Q10? 1010 makes a lot of sense.

Any thoughts? Thanks! And I'm posting on mobile so sorrybif the formatting sucks

Without history this is kind of gross. It would be helpful to know if he raises his oesd and fd on the flop. If we think he does, then I'm calling off even though he has TT and 44 and QT in his range. Also, if we think he will raise with all his tp hands (AQ, KQ, QJ), I call down. I have played against lots of older guys who overvalue tptk as the nuts.

All that being said, since there's no history, I might be folding since tptk and bluffs don't usually go for stacks this early in casual live mtts. This is usually 2p or a set. But if I think he's a competent player, I'm probably calling off since I have to be right less than 30% of the time with the odds he's giving me. Even if he's shoving 60% of his value combos here, calling is still +EV. The only reason might fold is 1) tournament life, and 2) you're still left with ~60BB if you fold, and 3) he's an unknown.

Here's the thing. Even if he gets to the river with the only other combo of AA, and all the combos of KK, QQ, TT, 44, QTs and J9s, and just two bluffs of KJs and J9s, your hand is still ahead 44/56. If we say he gets there with one combo of tptk, you're in even better shape. You would need a really good reason not to call here. If we take out his bluffs, your hand is still 25/75, which given the odds, is a clear fold. So if he has no bluffs at all, we fold.

However, when I put this in flopzilla, the most interesting part is that he needs only two combinations of a bluff (J9s and KJs), to give us 31% equity on the river, which is the exact odds we're getting at the river, for a break even call. Of course, this assumes that he shoves the only other combo of AA, all of his KK, and ever other 2p and set he has.

3rd paragraph meant to say your hand is behind 44/56.

Also, if he triple barrels tptk with at least one combo, we have even more equity vs his range that triple barrels.

Would Villain flat your preflop raise with AA, KK, AK, AQ, QQ, or even TT? I would think he would 3 bet there. 44 is definitely more of a flat as is KQ, QJ, QT.

His flop raise might be a nut diamond draw trying to get a free card (do people still do this?) but his bet after your check on the turn eliminates that option.

Such a big bet on the turn is kind of fishy unless he put you on the monster you had or a nut flush draw. By this I mean he has to be thinking one way or another to overbet the pot. He's trying to push you off the draw, or knows you have a hand that's tough to fold and is maximizing his value. In the end, either way, it works in his favor.

I put him on a set of fours and at worse (unless he is just a maniac with KQ, K4, or T4s) QT.

The decision is OTT. When you decide to call the turn you have to call this blank river IMO as it changes nothing.

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Thanks! It indeed was gross. I hate the thought of getting stacks in this early in the tournament with just a pair. Is that bad? Knowing if this guy would bet draws would make things far easier.


I ended up calling him the whole way and he turned up Q10, which makes sense for the lower end of his calling range.

It's so early in the tournament that it's hard to know his style. I may have mistakenly thought that 1010 and AQ were calling hands but what you said makes sense, those may be more likely to be 3bet than called. He ended up having Q10 so I suppose his betting was to push out any draws that I may have. Would you have played it any differently?

Thanks! In my own head, I was actually thinking if the straight or flush draw hit, I may consider folding. Is this bad logic? Under this logic, should I just fold on the turn then?

I would have had a hard time not shipping it on the flop after the re-raise, all the while trying to convince myself he had KQ or he was just some maniac trying to take the hand away from me. Whether that is a better play or not, the end results would have been the same.

Just a tough situation early in a tourney.