live multi day mtt . deep in day 2 39/670
245k 6k/12k/12k button ante next blind 8k/16k/16k button ante next hand

table image: new at the table . didnt play for the past 20 min. some players at the table from day 1 where i ran over the table and always show big hands when called.
villains in the hand: bluffy , just won three big pots with light all-in call preflop. 350k approx.

I raise AT offsuit from the HIgh jack to 27k
BB call and the pots is now 72k. spr about 2.2

Flop: A Q 8 rainbow
I thought about checking back the flop for pot control but i wanted to gain some value Fromm second best hand because i thought my range was way ahead. i decide to bet small because that way i keep is bluff in and i can go to the turn with a wide range for villain. the small bet on the flop worked well during all this tourney.

so i cbet 23k
bb check raise to 75k.
pot now 175k and i have 205k.

at this point the hands i loose to are AA QQ AK ( will raise preflop?) AJ A8 88
at this point the hands i beat worst AX QX under pair and all his draws
I think i cannot call cause i will be pot commited on the turn and a lot off bad cards can fall off.
so for me its a fold (i will have 12bb after the hand with the blinds coming ,7 handed at the moment) or a shove giving him 2,7:1 on a call.
i think the fold was bettor action but i want to know from a ICM perspective what do you think!? Im not sure at all if i ended up doing the worst things if we are not result oriented in this hand. was not looking to ladder up the payout.
I finally shove and he tank for a long time and finally end up calling with AJ .

Payouts:
37th-40th:370$
34th-36th:400$
31th-33th:440$
28th-30th:500$
25th-27th:580$
22th-24th:680$
19th-21th:800$
16th-18th:930$
13th-15th:1080$
10th-12th:1250$
9th:1450$
8th:1900$
7th:2650$
6th:3800$
5th:5300$
4th:7200$
3th:9600$
2th:13150$
1th:20000$

Great post

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fold pre

yes its a good option

dont x back flop to pot control, I like the small bet but I might fold to the x/r

yes i think you just said the good answer here... i should have fold to the check raise

Raise bigger on the flop to set up a good SPR for a turn shove.

As played jam vs his raise. Even if we assume that he is only raising strong made hands: All Ax combos (I think the likelihood is big since you Cbet so small + you had a read that he is bluffy), Q8, 88. Even when we include AK, QQ and AA (which he might sometimes trap with pre) you are still slightly ahead vs his range (since there are so many worse Ax combos in his range). We are behind vs 44 combos and ahead vs 56 combos.
If we add some semi-bluffs like OESDs and Gutshots we are quickly way ahead vs his range.

Get rid of this way of thinking about hands as soon as possible.

The Risk Premium is not that high in this spot and wouldn't affect my strategy here, not even vs an opponent that is not aware of ICM.

Even if V is indeed lag, he s probably aware of you image.
Stack wise and if he s not a spasmic spewer i really doubt he would raise you with anything that can not beat your hand.
So as said above, betting small that flop is certainly fine, you ll keep his weaker holdings in and can easily fold to fight another day if you get a x/r
GG tho and up to the next one
glgl