Line check needed: medium flush under pressure - MTT Poker Strategy

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Line check needed: medium flush under pressure

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06-22-2021 , 04:36 PM

miguelin43

adept

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 820

Hi guys

Some line check would be welcome; i am most interested in our turn and river action

Villain is 52/18 in 34 hands; only 29% fold to cbet althought size sample is meaningless

Here we go:

PokerStars - 50/100 Ante 10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

SB: 10,416 (104.2 bb)
BB: 10,637 (106.4 bb)
Hero (UTG): 10,014 (100.1 bb)
MP: 8,645 (86.5 bb)
CO: 9,850 (98.5 bb)
BTN: 9,675 (96.8 bb)

6 players post ante of 10, SB posts 50, BB posts 100

Pre Flop: (pot: 210) Hero has 8

Hero raises to 240, 2 folds, BTN calls 240, fold, BB calls 140

Flop: (830, 3 players) 5

BB checks, Hero bets 553, BTN calls 553, fold

Turn: (1,936, 2 players) 2

Hero bets 968, BTN calls 968

River: (3,872, 2 players) 2

Hero bets 1,549, BTN raises to 7,904 and is all-in, Hero folds

Results: 6,970 pot (0 rake)
Final Board: 5

BTN wins 6,970

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06-23-2021 , 09:01 AM

ledn

MTTLivePro

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 1,107

Betting turn AND river seems thin, esp when the board pairs too. I would lean toward checking turn to try and get a random bluff out of villain. But betting turn to check river could be best vs loose passive villains too.

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06-23-2021 , 02:59 PM

miguelin43

adept

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 820

Quote:

Originally Posted by ledn

I think betting turn vs a calling station like this villain is not that thin: he can be calling with a sticky TP or 77, some straight or God knows what...

River decision is not easy....i admit it´s really thin and vs a passive player like this i can even C/F to a big bet OTR...curious what you guys think about how we should play this river vs a reg (althought probably vs reg i could check the turn and let villain "bluff" me OTR)

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06-23-2021 , 03:57 PM

Z06Fanatic1

adept

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 835

Your 34 hand sample is pointless. I would probably check/fold the turn - he has a ton of 1 card spade hands that are better than you, and even if he had a hand like a5 or a6 no spade, he'll probably just check and try to get to showdown.

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06-23-2021 , 04:34 PM

ledn

MTTLivePro

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 1,107

I misread and thought we were in position. Out of position its even thinner.

I am 100% checking turn oop. Folding to a big size and peeling vs a weak stab. Even a weak fish is going to understand that they can't just go calling down with 1 pair on a 4 flush board. You are basically only getting value from the 7s and sets.

Once you bet turn and are called river is a check/fold. You are never getting called by worse on the river, maybe you fold out the 9s or 10s but I doubt it and you have other air to bluff with anyways.

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06-23-2021 , 06:39 PM

miguelin43

adept

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 820

Quote:

Originally Posted by Z06Fanatic1

Your 34 hand sample is pointless. I would probably check/fold the turn - he has a ton of 1 card spade hands that are better than you, and even if he had a hand like a5 or a6 no spade, he'll probably just check and try to get to showdown.

No way i am checking/fold OTT vs a 1/2 bet or something like that...he can have any random hand he decides to bluff when i check the turn because i am "scared" of the fourth spade

Quote:

Originally Posted by ledn

I misread and thought we were in position. Out of position its even thinner.

I am 100% checking turn oop. Folding to a big size and peeling vs a weak stab. Even a weak fish is going to understand that they can't just go calling down with 1 pair on a 4 flush board. You are basically only getting value from the 7s and sets.

Once you bet turn and are called river is a check/fold. You are never getting called by worse on the river, maybe you fold out the 9s or 10s but I doubt it and you have other air to bluff with anyways.

OTT i get value probably from straights too...dont think this kind of player folds to a medium size second barrel....but nevertheless, i get your overall point here

OTR it is as you say for sure, after looking at the hand all over again...

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06-24-2021 , 10:06 AM

Z06Fanatic1

adept

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 835

Quote:

Originally Posted by miguelin43

No way i am checking/fold OTT vs a 1/2 bet or something like that...he can have any random hand he decides to bluff when i check the turn because i am "scared" of the fourth spade

Do you know how many combos there are of 1 spade hands that call the flop? Do you think he's calling your flop bet with QJ or something no spade with the BB still to act behind? Here's an equity sim with a couple added in hands(A5o,A7)

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

14,124 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 5

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
8s8h	22.51%	3,044	270
As,Ks,Qs,Js,Ts,9s,7s*,A5,A7,87,99	77.49%	10,810	270

I added in a couple random hands. You forget he calls your flop bet with a guy behind to act in a 3 way pot - assuming he's just floating random QJ/QT/KT type hands with no spade is silly.

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06-24-2021 , 05:20 PM

Darth_Maul

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 4,435

Yeah turn and river are both thin. On the turn you beat almost no flushes and lose to 9s-As, plus you block the 87 straight. Maybe sets call to try to boat up but it's hard to see getting value from anything. River I'm never betting - now that the board has paired you lose to everything that will call a bet there.

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06-24-2021 , 05:47 PM

miguelin43

adept

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 820

Quote:

Originally Posted by Z06Fanatic1

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

14,124 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 5

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
8s8h	22.51%	3,044	270
As,Ks,Qs,Js,Ts,9s,7s*,A5,A7,87,99	77.49%	10,810	270

I added in a couple random hands. You forget he calls your flop bet with a guy behind to act in a 3 way pot - assuming he's just floating random QJ/QT/KT type hands with no spade is silly.

he is a 52/18...i assume everything with him

I assume he calls flops with JJ TT 99 A high.... and a lot of random overcards too..i assume he can cold call with K7o and call the cbet

I admit that turn is thin, but i think it´s easy to say "oh he has a spade" once you have seen all the hand...if you bet the turn and he calls with A5o or 6c5c or TT or folds his random stuff he called cbet OTF nobody would be surprised...

How many times you see a 52/18 doing weird calls...? Probably a lot....

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06-24-2021 , 06:52 PM

#10

Z06Fanatic1

adept

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 835

Quote:

Originally Posted by miguelin43

Your 52/18 sample is not relevant - 35 hands or whatever you have doesn't matter. The other issue is he's going to bet the turn with his value range 100% of the time, but who knows how often he bets worse hands. This puts you in an even worse equity situation when you check and he bets. Even if you made the argument he bluffs 100% of turns when you check I doubt you can match the combos of better hands to make it a good call. How you played the turn/river was you went for thin value on the turn, and decided to bluff the river when he could still have nut type hands. This was the worst line possible.

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06-25-2021 , 09:01 AM

#11

ledn

MTTLivePro

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 1,107

There are many types of 52/17, some are fit/fold, some are sticky with weak draws, some are total stations, and some are bluffing maniacs. You shouldnt really make a real assumption about villains postflop playstyle based off VPIP/PFR stats, other than that he has a wide, weak range on the flop.

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06-27-2021 , 05:37 AM

#12

Panny1

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 1,548

Would be interested to know if we even have a c-betting-range on that Flop?

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06-27-2021 , 11:59 AM

#13

ledn

MTTLivePro

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 1,107

Pio says that we are checking 75% of the time vs a 35% btn flat. Basically just a mixed strategy with everything. 88s is checking more than 88 no spade. But generally, the EV between betting small and checking is the same.

A range check would definitely be a simpler strategy to implement effectively that doesn't sacrifice EV

If btn has a tighter, 15%, flat range its 87% range check

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06-27-2021 , 07:58 PM

#14

killer_kill

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 28,610

Quote:

Originally Posted by Panny1

Would be interested to know if we even have a c-betting-range on that Flop?

I was mostly lurking this thread but wondered that as well given it's 3ways.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ledn

Did you run it with BB defense in there too?

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06-28-2021 , 08:48 AM

#15

ledn

MTTLivePro

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 1,107

Quote:

Originally Posted by killer_kill

I was mostly lurking this thread but wondered that as well given it's 3ways.

Did you run it with BB defense in there too?

no I didnt, I forgot about him tbh. PIO doesn't do 3way pots anyway.

I would imagine that a 3rd players makes it even more of a check. More likely that we are against flushes and sets and 2 pairs. One thing that I have noticed with solvers is that they tend to play very passively OOP on monotone flops.

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06-28-2021 , 07:21 PM

#16

killer_kill

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 28,610

I could've sworn that PIO does 3way pots. Am I having a mandella effect? But yes it being 3 ways would make it basically (likely) a range check esp on this kind of board and with BB in especially.

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