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Small Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of small stakes MTT strategy

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Old 10-08-2017, 03:52 PM   #1
steinerbest
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Late stage 15 € difficult river choice

PokerStars - 800/1600 Ante 200 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 75.89 BB (VPIP: 26.19, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 42)
Hero (CO): 76.02 BB
BTN: 45.6 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
SB: 43.24 BB (VPIP: 24.30, PFR: 15.89, 3Bet Preflop: 12.24, Hands: 108)
BB: 14.88 BB (VPIP: 4.00, PFR: 4.35, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
UTG: 63.48 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 30.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
UTG+1: 30.86 BB (VPIP: 18.26, PFR: 13.62, 3Bet Preflop: 4.71, Hands: 441)

7 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.37 BB) Hero has A Q

fold, fold, MP raises to 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (7.37 BB, 3 players) Q J 2
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets 3.44 BB, fold, MP raises to 11 BB, Hero calls 7.56 BB

Turn: (29.37 BB, 2 players) 5
MP bets 16 BB, Hero calls 16 BB

River: (61.37 BB, 2 players) 3
MP bets 46.77 BB and is all-in, Hero ???

About 40 left, ITM is x3 at the moment. Just a small sample of about 40 hands from V, but he seems competent and aggressive.

Do you always 3bet pre? Can we easily fold turn? Is it always a fold OTR? Thanks!
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Old 10-08-2017, 03:58 PM   #2
daviid
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Re: Late stage 15 € difficult river choice

pre is fine that deep, not a huge deal either way. as played its pretty tough to fold any street. looks like we literally only have two better combos (QJdd and QJss) so i dont see how we can get away from our hand. not to mention that we unblock clubs/str8 draws but block at least some AA/QQ combos. im calling down, good for him if he has it.
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Old 10-09-2017, 05:23 AM   #3
Glaciem
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Re: Late stage 15 € difficult river choice

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Originally Posted by daviid View Post
pre is fine that deep, not a huge deal either way. as played its pretty tough to fold any street. looks like we literally only have two better combos (QJdd and QJss) so i dont see how we can get away from our hand. not to mention that we unblock clubs/str8 draws but block at least some AA/QQ combos. im calling down, good for him if he has it.
Yas, agree this quite abit . Pre can go either way.

When the FD misses as well makes me want to cd as well.
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Old 10-09-2017, 07:04 AM   #4
exitonlykk
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Re: Late stage 15 € difficult river choice

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Yas, agree this quite abit . Pre can go either way.

When the FD misses as well makes me want to cd as well.
You only need him to be bluffing on this river about 29% of the time. Never forget about the pot odds your getting.

The only way i'm folding on any of these streets is if I have a strong read that he is not capable of bluffing this line. You're unblocking KT, T9 and clubs, his most likely bluffs, making this a fairly manditory call (unless your heart says otherwise - only you experienced all those micro-timing and sizing tells)...

Phil Hellmuth would fold and be right; but i would call and know i wasn't being exploited.
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Old 10-09-2017, 08:20 AM   #5
steinerbest
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Re: Late stage 15 € difficult river choice

Well, that's what happened... I tanked, called... and have the time to see him winning with... KK! Nice weird way to play them, but he won so GG
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Old 10-11-2017, 07:39 AM   #6
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Re: Late stage 15 € difficult river choice

tough to fold when the board is so wet and we block more of his value than bluffs
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Old 10-12-2017, 03:08 AM   #7
killer_kill
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Re: Late stage 15 € difficult river choice

We only block QQQ i don't follow. Calling the river seems really bad. You block his gutshot hands that had overcards and there aren't too many Axcc hands he can have to bluff. Just fold the river and probably fold the turn. Bet a little more on the flop as well. Also 3b preflop for value.
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Old 10-12-2017, 10:48 PM   #8
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Re: Late stage 15 € difficult river choice

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We only block QQQ i don't follow. Calling the river seems really bad. You block his gutshot hands that had overcards and there aren't too many Axcc hands he can have to bluff. Just fold the river and probably fold the turn. Bet a little more on the flop as well. Also 3b preflop for value.
do you think he check/gives up alot of his bluffs otr? I can see merit in folding river but its really tough ott as he can heaps of worse combos
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Old 10-13-2017, 11:59 AM   #9
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Re: Late stage 15 € difficult river choice

I really only see clubs, 9T (prob has to be suited) and KT (again prob suited) and maybe some random extra bluff gutshots that raised flop but that's not very likely. Just someone ripping nearly 50 blinds in a spot like this seems pretty heave value. Also he isn't value betting KK and it seems like a terrible bluff so I dunno the whole hand is a mess kinda. Seems like we got owned sorta not thinking he'd value bet KK here in a sense. I'm not even sure KK to jam river is even a value bet lol.
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Old 10-13-2017, 12:02 PM   #10
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Re: Late stage 15 € difficult river choice

Like we wanna call when villain is polarized here but he doesn't have enough bluff combos imo (could be wrong obviously) and yes on turn he can have bluff combos but not all those combos are 100% jamming river and some of his turn bluffs can give up or block some of your air hands to fold and not wanna jam too. So when villain has hands like KK in their range it means AA also is as well and that adds a decent amount of value combos that beat us vs the few bluff combos he can have.
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Old 10-13-2017, 09:11 PM   #11
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Re: Late stage 15 € difficult river choice

I think population proly underbluffs river. Your average nit / rec player is not going to be jamming 50bb with his tournament life with air too often vs a defended x/r and turn call.

I think I would struggle to fold river vs a lag but vs nits / readless and everyone else is proly fine to fold
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