Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 15/30 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 183.37 BB (VPIP: 19.84, PFR: 13.56, 3Bet Preflop: 5.11, Hands: 774)
UTG: 158.4 BB (VPIP: 17.82, PFR: 14.98, 3Bet Preflop: 8.67, Hands: 478)
UTG+1: 163.67 BB (VPIP: 21.64, PFR: 15.61, 3Bet Preflop: 9.99, Hands: 1,653)
MP: 122.13 BB (VPIP: 22.91, PFR: 17.64, 3Bet Preflop: 10.17, Hands: 553)
MP+1: 173.4 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
CO: 205.53 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 19.40, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 138)
BTN: 153.17 BB (VPIP: 26.81, PFR: 17.52, 3Bet Preflop: 7.62, Hands: 797)
Hero (SB): 164.17 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q K

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 14 BB, fold, MP+1 calls 10.5 BB

Flop: (29 BB, 2 players) J K T
Hero bets 16 BB, MP+1 calls 16 BB

Turn: (61 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero bets 29 BB, MP+1 calls 29 BB

River: (119 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 59.5 BB, Hero ???

do we bet on the turn for bluff or for value? And which hands we charge/try to fold out?

I probably would have overbet the flop and tried to gii on the turn. With the OESFD we definitely have the best hand on the flop except vs maybe AcQx, on the turn our equity goes down a lot, but we're still ok.

River as played I'd probably cry fold.

Is the c/r on the flop, in this spot, so orrible?

Why overbet? Let's say that V called on the preflop with 22-QQ, AJo-AKo, ATs-AKs, K9s-KQs, Q9s-QJs, J9s-JTs, KQo. He calls overbet with his strongest hands only while smaller bet like 1/4 of the pot can keep him in the game with the whole range. If we bet large, he calls and the turn is blank we are basically flipping for the very large pot - is it OK?

Given we're super early and deep I think I'm happy just calling pre and risking a multiway pot. But the 3b isn't bad with a hand that flops so well.

I think the rest of the line is fine with the river being a sigh x/fold. The board is pretty good for his range so he can have sets (JJ/TT), 2p (KJs/KTs/JTs), the nut straight (AQ), the 9 straight (he could get there with A9cc), all of which beat you. He could also have a bunch of pair+draw combos but you also block many of them (AK/KQ/QJs/QTs). The only other hands he gets to the river with that you beat are A2cc-A8cc. By my calculations you're only 25% against that range.

Doubt we need to defend here when we arrive at river with all overpairs, most straights, a majority of sets, some 2pr, and most TPTK. It's a pretty nice line from villain.

Think pre should be smaller. Let's keep his range as wide as possible.

Turn should be a x I think. Unless we flush or straighten up we likely only have a one-street value hand. Too few NFD and worse club and worse pair combos we're targeting for value here, also a not insignificany time we're RIOed against {AcXc}. Almost always V folds worse and continues w/ better, even though we should have decent equity vs better we're not doing well enough to justify bloating the pot here. You used a nutted sizing, we have a pretty hand but not a nutted hand on this texture. There's no need for V to x/r flopped 2pr or even say bottom set on this texture where both ranges are hit hard by the flop and 2pr has some relative strength problems.



Even if we x turn if V x's behind we can still go for some value OTR because we should have bluffs (like missed naked FDs) too so V can hero some hands worse than TP2K that x'ed behind OTT.

Basically, this is a range neutral board and neither player has much of a range advantage and we're actually kind of like the top-middle of our range. Think it's better go polar w/ betting range in that case, and we're merging too much putting this hand in T bet range.

Would like a F x/c line too for the same reason, and of course if flop goes x-x we start leading turn.