Kind of a gross spot. Near the bubble, vs chipleader. Think villain's going to have AA here a lot of the time, block a lot of the other possible hands like QQ, KK, AK, AQ. Straightforward fold or call one street because of the Jd?

PokerStars - 1000/2000 Ante 200 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 17.81 BB (VPIP: 13.16, PFR: 7.89, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 38)
UTG: 10.23 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
UTG+1: 35.42 BB (VPIP: 17.24, PFR: 10.34, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)
MP: 26.8 BB (VPIP: 18.87, PFR: 9.62, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 53)
MP+1: 13.45 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 24.44, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 48)
MP+2: 12.38 BB (VPIP: 13.21, PFR: 9.80, 3Bet Preflop: 10.34, Hands: 53)
CO: 16.34 BB (VPIP: 35.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
Hero (BTN): 53.52 BB
SB: 75.85 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has K Q

fold, UTG+1 raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, SB raises to 9.9 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 7.9 BB

Flop: (23.7 BB, 2 players) Q J 4
SB bets 16 BB

Even if his range is wider than AA you're also behind JJ now, along with KK/QQ/AQ that are still in his range. The only hands he might squeeze that you beat are AK/TT and maybe AJ.

The bet size is also a bit of a tell: 2/3 pot looks like a value/protection bet. I think if he had AK you'd probably see a half pot bet or even smaller.

I'm not crazy about peeling one more for 16bb in the hopes of picking up more equity on your backdoor draws. That's an expensive price to pay to chase backdoors. So I think you either give up right there or decide to go with it and shove to see both turn and river. But the latter seems a bit crazy when you have a decent stack on the bubble.

Sent from my SM-G920W8 using Tapatalk

Yeah I think this is a clear fold for ICM purposes and more.

Best case: you're ahead of 77/88/99/TT, AK, AJ or a bluff (with only 14 hands his 0% 3b is irrelevant, so a bluff here is still possible)
Bad case: you're behind AA
Badder case: you're behind AQ/KK
Worst case: you're behind QQ/JJ

If you're not folding I think you can only jam the flop (you can't R/F because you'd be commited) but I'd vastly prefer a fold and find another spot. If he 3b you light and you fold to a bluff then so be it.

I think the line of calling the 3b and then folding to a bet on a Q high flop doesn't make a lot of sense - against an aggressive value range like TT+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+ we go from 33% equity pre to 48% on the flop - so if we're going to fold this flop we should be folding to the 3b

It's not an ideal squeeze spot given it's a tight EP raise so in the absence of a read I'd prob fold to the 3b

I was actually thinking the same thing. We've hit a pretty good flop for our hand and the situation still sucks. So we probably shouldn't be calling the 3b to begin with.

Sent from my SM-G920W8 using Tapatalk

That 3 bet is massive, I'd just fold pre


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

fold pre without reads on sb. His squeeze is value weighted in this particular spot seeing its an ep open.

As played fold flop