$55 Entry plus $25 Addon club MTT 2K GTD on PPPoker. Most players are bad but villain is a thinking player.

We are 5 handed and top 6 get paid and Im 2nd in chips with KQo UTG.

SB: 800 (49k)
BB: 1600 (99k)
UTG Hero: Raise to 3200 (59k) with KcQh
CO Folds (26k)
BTN Folds (13k)
SB Folds
BB Calls 3200

Pot 8k
FLOP 3d3cQc

BB Checks
Hero bets 4k
BB C/R to 12k
Hero Flats

Pot 32K
TURN Jc

BB Leads 16k
Hero Flats

Pot 64k

River 9s

BB bets 32k which would put me all in.

Hero: ?

I feel like I played this super poorly so just want to learn where to improve.

I cbet smaller on that flop. Somewhere between 25% and 33%. BB has a lot of trash but also a lot of 3x, and we only have A3s.

Calling the flop c/r with tpgk is standard.

Turn is where things get dicey. In a vacuum its probably a call again but with the 2 <20bb stacks I am making an ICM fold.

We don't really beat much by the river. Really only like a random AcX that c/r the flop, and there are a ton of 3x and flushes in his range. Again its an ICM fold even if in a vacuum the solver bluff catches with this combo.

The big stack is going to aggressive, but with the stacks the way they are, you kind of have to take it on the chin until the shorties bust.

Hero could bet a little smaller on flop, but I don't think I'd go all the way down to 25%......that just gives any FD's too good a price on a call (certainly with implieds it's easily "correct" for him to call such a small cbet). Half-pot at least makes it a marginal call for villain.
If going smaller, I'd probably not go below ~38-40%.

As played, I think the river's a fold [perhaps an easy one]; just not seeing much reasonably in his range that you're actually beating. I doubt he plays something like QT this aggressively; best case might be chopping with KQ, and otherwise you're losing. Quick stove has you at somewhere between 8:1 and 9:1 underdog on the river to the potential range I see for him.


Turn decision might be the more thread-worthy question, imo. I'm not sure I'm on-board with the call there (should be feeling like you're behind, and with knowledge that a river barrel is going to put you all-in or really close to it......). EDIT: Whoops, just noticed your K was a club......guess than makes the turn call much closer [and possibly marginally correct].

Yeah, the turn is definitely the most interesting spot in this hand.

I tend to not like 25% myself either, but the solvers do a lot if you give them an option too. I usually just go for around 30% for my small bet sizing unless its a super dry flop.

There are several reason why on a dry board like this you want to bet small. I imagine a solver is betting small with most of its range here.

1) You have a pretty big range advantage has the bb has a ton a air that will fold to pretty much any size.

2) You do NOT have a nut advantage. You have stronger Qx and QQ and A3s but the bb has all of the suited 3x hands+ A3o and even worse offsuit 3x if he defends really wide.

Thinking you need to bet bigger because of the fd is an intuitive mistake. yes if you bet bigger, you do better against the bb's fds. But the bb's range is so much more wider than fds so you want a bet size that is best against the whole range.

Wrote all that before running the hand in PIO. I was mistaken a little bit. I gave it bet size options of 30%, 50%, 75%, 100%. The solver bets 30% of the pot 60% of the time and checks 40% of the time. The other bet sizes are used combined 2% of the time, so you can ignore them practically.

We do have a 60/40 range equity advantage on the flop, so Im a little surprised it doesn't bet more often. But I guess the bbs advantage in 3x combos slows us down a lot here.

The Kc was the reason for my call on the turn, I might get him to give up on River and get to showdown, but a lot of his 2p, straights, flushes, and like you said random 3x gets there.

It was def a tough spot and can get behind the ICM fold on turn. I fold to his river bet and move on, felt gross.