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JJ facing 100 BB ai JJ facing 100 BB ai

10-05-2018 , 07:42 AM
think its bad calling this for 100 BB... If we win the flip we have 200BB ...or do we give up to much edge?
JJ facing 100 BB ai Quote
10-05-2018 , 08:11 AM
You can't call it flipping for 100bb because you don't know you're flipping when the chips go in. The question is whether you should call off 100bb preflop with JJ. The answer is no.
JJ facing 100 BB ai Quote
10-05-2018 , 10:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth_Maul
You can't call it flipping for 100bb because you don't know you're flipping when the chips go in.

Typically When players make this shove for huge amounts of chips it’s rarely qq or better. In this situation the guy 3 bet shoved for over 180 bbs’s lol. I can’t see many players doing that w AA or KK. Possibly qq but I think their just going to throw a large 3-bet out.
In most cases players will make a standard(ish) 3-bet with aa, kk, qq out of fear of not getting any value (if they shove).

I know Darth and I differ on this topic (and that’s totally fine) as similar posts to this have been brought up before but I don’t hate gii here in this spot. It’s still early in the ty so it’s not like you’ve been playing for hours and have some huge icm decision to make.

This is obviously a higher variance route to take but as long as this isn’t a huge tournament for you or a ticket you won into the Sunday million or something, I’d take it.
JJ facing 100 BB ai Quote
10-06-2018 , 07:46 AM
I've seen lots of players make overshoves with AA/KK precisely because it won't look like AA/KK. I've even done it myself.
JJ facing 100 BB ai Quote
10-09-2018 , 06:04 AM
Overall I think you're behind against his range assuming, his shoving with AQo+, the only hand you really dominate is TT, other than that its a coinflip.
JJ facing 100 BB ai Quote
10-09-2018 , 08:15 AM
The situation

Yes, a lot of the time, players are going to have AK here. Wether or not, we can call depends. Do they also shove QQ, KK, AA? Or are they always playing those normally? From my experience, players that shove AK in this spot also shove QQ, but might not shove AA and KK.

vs a "balanced" premium range
ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
58,218,336 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
Js Jd36.19% 20,947,296243,956
KK, AK, QQ, AA63.81% 37,027,084243,956


vs a range, where the player overestimates his handstrength in relation to an UTG open:
ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
97,601,328 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
Js Jd46.88% 44,732,5662,037,466
AK,AQ,TT+53.12% 50,831,2962,037,466

vs, an "exploitative" default range:
ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
37,670,688 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
Js Jd45.75% 17,156,796157,370
AK, QQ54.25% 20,356,522157,370

As we can see, we are always behind our opponents range, even when we give him a fairly wide one.

SB covers us, so the effective overbet is 5417/504 ~ 10,21 times pot. We require 10,21/21,42 ~ 47,67% equity to break even. Even against a wide range, we have less than that.

=> We are not giving up any "edge" by folding. This call is -ev, without an additional read, that our opponent NEVER has QQ+ in this spot.

So much for the math. Now let's look at the situation overall.

If we are the kind of player that needs a big stack to function, we might make the call, because we are looking to aquire a big stack as early as possible and just reenter, if we lose.

There are several players left to act behind us. We don't know what they are going to do. The more players in the pot, the more the value of a pair decreases. This is even more reason to fold.

Personally, I try to avoid all kinds of flippy situations for huge amounts of blinds, especially early. When a lot of chips go in, I want to have a clear advantage over my opponents range. There is enough situations, where we getin as a clear favourite and still manage to lose, no need to increase variance in 55/45 scenarios.

If you are worried about being exploited:
You should have enough hands in your UTG opens that can comfortably call in this situation. AA, KK and AK come to mind. Of course, AK blocks those combos.
In the long run, the AK player is actually giving up edge. If the table makes the correct calling/folding decisions, then this play becomes bad.

Last edited by Caterina; 10-09-2018 at 08:34 AM.
JJ facing 100 BB ai Quote

      
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