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Small Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of small stakes MTT strategy

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Old 09-28-2020, 01:05 AM   #1
juvefan12
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ICMizer Analysis/Hand Review of fold in WCOOP 2019 $25k

Hi All here below is a link to the hand in question which happens 2:10 into the video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uymACTJdlk

Here are 2 images of my ICMizer analysis as well as the hand in question on a hosting platform.

https://ibb.co/94BQWzG
https://ibb.co/VL2WQqs

What I would like to open a discussion on is the fold at this final table short stacked pocket 88's from hijack makes against big stacked lojack's open. The payout for this tourney is a very non progressive style. Admittingly after observing ICMizers open raise range for the big stack lojack having him a bit tighter than I would think but which makes sense now for these payouts being large stack can gain value by folding more... Regardless in watching this I believed 88 would be a jam/steal. And looking into it on icmizer after setting up the sim with tourney structure it says it is +.17 ICM %ev (+.15 % with FGS on). So being future game simulation decreases your expected value by .02% that is leaning in the direction of this guys fold but still is a lot of EV!

Maybe I am missing something, or did this guy make a mistake? Is this a time maybe where someone is playing tight maybe because cash is so much and they are playing up in a $25k tourney as is? Trying to wrap my head around. Would love to hear others thoughts! Thanks
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Old 09-28-2020, 03:02 AM   #2
juvefan12
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Re: ICMizer Analysis/Hand Review of fold in WCOOP 2019 $25k

I noticed it happened again just slightly later in the tourney in a very similar situation where mid/late biggstack raises i believe A10s and late position short stack has 88's which I ran the sim on and again. player in game from this hand Bounatirou decides to fold which I ran the sim on and the spot again had about .15% ICM EQ for him to jam but in game also decided to fold.

I must be missing something right? Because off of my limited tournament knowledge it seems like mistakes in both hands but certainly I may be the one looking at applying ICM wrong. Thoughts appreciated!
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Old 09-28-2020, 03:52 AM   #3
oldgoat
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Re: ICMizer Analysis/Hand Review of fold in WCOOP 2019 $25k

where is the hand? 2.10 is a different hand ( I assume you mean 2 minutes 10 but 2hours 10 doesn't work either )
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Old 09-28-2020, 06:47 AM   #4
juvefan12
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Re: ICMizer Analysis/Hand Review of fold in WCOOP 2019 $25k

2 minutes 10 seconds into the youtube video
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Old 09-28-2020, 07:26 AM   #5
oldgoat
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Re: ICMizer Analysis/Hand Review of fold in WCOOP 2019 $25k

Sorry - my bad
yes prob just a mistake
maybe like you say someone who has ended up well out of their comfort zone and want to make another pay jump
I mean its possible that there was some kind of table dynamic going on which meant that shortstack thought is was particularly likely that one of the other players was going to gamble soon but doesn't seem very likely.
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