Hi All here below is a link to the hand in question which happens 2:10 into the video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uymACTJdlk
Here are 2 images of my ICMizer analysis as well as the hand in question on a hosting platform.
https://ibb.co/94BQWzG
https://ibb.co/VL2WQqs
What I would like to open a discussion on is the fold at this final table short stacked pocket 88's from hijack makes against big stacked lojack's open. The payout for this tourney is a very non progressive style. Admittingly after observing ICMizers open raise range for the big stack lojack having him a bit tighter than I would think but which makes sense now for these payouts being large stack can gain value by folding more... Regardless in watching this I believed 88 would be a jam/steal. And looking into it on icmizer after setting up the sim with tourney structure it says it is +.17 ICM %ev (+.15 % with FGS on). So being future game simulation decreases your expected value by .02% that is leaning in the direction of this guys fold but still is a lot of EV!
Maybe I am missing something, or did this guy make a mistake? Is this a time maybe where someone is playing tight maybe because cash is so much and they are playing up in a $25k tourney as is? Trying to wrap my head around. Would love to hear others thoughts! Thanks