Hello, i made it deep into one of the winter events and this hand came up.

I had K4 suited with around 2.5mil in the bb of 100k with antes.
A guy who steals 45% and Cbets 100% raised too 220k from the cutoff and i called.

Flop came 245 with two diamonds, The guy Cbet for 330k as always and i ripped it figuring he would fold allot of his range and i could pick up around 1mil chips, he snapped me with A3 tho and it was rip.

So, did i punt it or is that actually +EV figuring he would fold all hand except overpairs, flush draws and pair of 5s?

I would look at it myself but im a real pleb at pokerstove.

Don't post results!!

You could alternatively just call... these guys play face up ott. If he cbets ott just fold. If he checks back block bet otr and you still have 18bb to fight with.

Sorry didnt know u werent allowed too post results, ehm yeah maybe ur right, it was a punt, i felt so stupid when he called me lol.

If you were shallower then x/j is nice.

But 25bb might be a little too much to stick in with middle pair vs an uncapped range. Not saying it isn't +EV--a pair is good often enough to where even if he doesn't fold better or call worse there will be enough combos w/ equity you'll fold out (and you have equity too when called) to make the shove +EV--it's just x/c is almost surely more +EV than x/j at this depth.


All your EV from jamming is coming from equity denial since you almost never get called by worse. At 25bb you win much less in dead money relative to your stack compared to having, say, a 15bb stack, and you lose much more when called despite the fact that you probably don't pick up much is any additional FE jamming 25bb vs 15bb (which means you don't actually deny more equity jamming 25bb vs 15bb--think about his calling range here--it's pretty much the same vs the two sizings unless he starts calling it off w/ like AK vs smaller jams, which I doubt)

So x/c flop. And unimproved x/f turn to a barrel since his range would still be uncapped at that point.

I like the move. That flop is way better for your defending range than his opening range and you have a very vulnerable made hand. You don't want to x/c because the turn and river cards can change things dramatically.

His range will include lots of overcard combos that should fold to a x/r, and even middle pairs will have a hard time calling. Your stack is too small for a standard x/r so the best option remaining is a x/shove. He can only call with the best of his range, which unfortunately he had in this spot. Even if he calls with hands like 88-QQ, you have 3 outs to pair your King.

These are the kinds of moves you have to be willing to make to run deep in MTTs.