Hi guys

Villain is a very good reg (my humble opinion)
His stats (200 hands) : 22/14 ; EP and MP PFR 19-20%
River agg 25%; cbet 60%

SB is 45/18 , looked to me a somewhat loose and unexperienced player

Hero folds....anybody calling? and why?

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $4.50 Buy-in (50/100 blinds, 10 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 11,825 (118.3 bb)
Hero (BB): 9,708 (97.1 bb)
UTG+1: 6,486 (64.9 bb)
UTG+2: 7,183 (71.8 bb)
MP1: 11,130 (111.3 bb)
MP2: 9,980 (99.8 bb)
MP3: 8,059 (80.6 bb)
CO: 11,684 (116.8 bb)
BTN: 13,895 (139 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T Q
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to 250, 4 folds, BTN calls 250, SB calls 200, Hero calls 150

Flop: (1,090) 9 2 3 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, BTN checks

Turn: (1,090) Q (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 bets 300, BTN folds, SB calls 300, Hero calls 300

River: (1,990) Q (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 bets 6,623 and is all-in, 2 folds

It's a trip, not a set, tripz will take you on a trip, and sets float boats.

There is a lot of his opening range OTB.

Just a bad beat....but I'd be interested to know if he is playing his A9?

That´s a pretty cool quote and yeah, sorry, it was a trip

I in fact folded so dont know what hand he had

Ummmm dont you think he has better Q (AQ KQ or Q9) and he is trying to extract fat value from the other player (and/or me)?

I might lead turn. If he's shoving there and you are folding a queen that is quite the exploitable shove.

So multiway and wheel/straight draws/ overcards good spot to lead turn

I doubt that villain is a decent reg since this play is so unusual and do not make a lot of sense, unless he thinks either you or SB is a calling station, or both of you are super nit.

I would sometimes call here and just move on, I believe the right play is not to care about the result at all.

So as played OTR is it a clear call? What range do you assign villain? We are working on the idea that he is a good player...

Assuming he's a good player who bluffs yes we call.

AK AA KK JJ TT 99 88 KQ AQ A9 22 77 QJ <QTs

If he never bluffs then perhaps we can fold.

It makes sense. Hero check called turn v small bet and has like 100% bluff-catchers and villain poled out and seeing what he wants to do.

I don't like what ‘decent regs’ do. They bet sizes that make things comfortable for bluff-catchers because they’re desperate for action.

At first that shove seems super odd to me but I guess if he has either AQ, 99, 22 or 33 then he's shoving thinking that by calling on the turn 1 of you must have a Q so he is jamming believing that you won't lay down trips on the river and is going for max value. I don't really see this happening with any other hands. At this level those huge river bets are rarely a bluff so by calling you'd really be hoping to see AA/KK or a weaker Q hand which I don't think he shoves any of those.

I lead turn. Good fold. I suspect he has 99 here close to always.

I think I sigh fold here pretty quickly, unless villain is a maniac. UTG has {99, QTs+, KQ+} in his range. Possibly even {22-33}. If you want the game theory math, you can fold ~(6.6/8.6) of your range here, or 76%. That's assuming villain is bluffing here at the correct frequency (which is lulz, honestly--unless again, villain is a maniac).

Maybe QTs is in the top 24% of your range, but you also have {Q2s-Q3s, 22-33, QJs, Q9s} and possibly {KQs}. Looks like he's just banking on the fact that one of you probably has a Q and won't fold trips.

Personally, I disagree with leading T since this card is good for UTG's range and there are only two overcards to the Q. If UTG checks again you can pretty confidently bet R--if UTG flats T, we're in a weird spot OTR. Think about what UTG's checking range OTF looks like--it has a lot of Ax and middling broadways. He's betting all of his pairs on this flop except maybe {KK+}. So in other words, by leading turn, he's rarely calling with worse unless he decides to bluffcatch one street with A-high.

FWIW, very few "very good regs" are playing $5 tournaments and I've never seen anyone overbet bluff 3x the pot vs 2 opponents, or even in general.

The turn is interesting, Hero calls, and didn't raise with his Queen, do you think just calling here is a way to play it to attract value OTR?

You can fold because the pot is small. Put it like this, if you were offered your bets back and you could fold pre and not have to deal with this spot you’d likely take it. You’re not a million miles removed from that scenario.

But I call and take a note because I don’t give a damn.

I doubt that he Plays 22 33 99 Q9 like that.
also playing AQ KQ QJ QT like that Looks weird to me.
with such Deep stacks and Little Action, the 60bb shove seems to be terrible.

why would you do this with a strong Hand instead of betting 50%-75% pot size for value.
I think it's either a bluff or an overplayed AA KK

and with such a Play I doubt that he is a 'very good reg' as he is not extracting a lot of value here and bluffing with such Deep stacks is not a good Play either.

This is my thinking exactly. Well said, Chaz. I would be shocked if this isn't exactly it. He has AA, KK and a weaker Q some of the time, but so infrequently as to make this a fold imo.

There are no busted draws, which drastically reduces the combos of bluffs in his range. If you have to think really hard to find bluffs, it likely isn't a bluff.