Hi guys

Villain is 23/7 over 60 hands. First time he opens from CO. Very aggro stats on every street. Already ITM but FT a little far away

Plan is to c/c al least 2 streets with this guy. But then i see that small river bet and it doesn´t make any sense.

If he has like 88-QQ he doesn´t take this line for sure. Kx (with good kicker) i suppose he checks behind. So we only have left any Ax or...nothing

Pot is big , pot odds are awesome , i put so much chips on the pot and folding looks super stupid but this is what i did. Is the mistake in this hand the turn decision? Should i just have shoved and be done with it? Or is it not calling the river bet the stupid decision?

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $1.80 Buy-in (15,000/30,000 blinds, 3,750 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37933335

MP2: 851,259 (28.4 bb)
MP3: 1,537,933 (51.3 bb)
CO: 1,629,173 (54.3 bb)
BTN: 719,670 (24 bb)
SB: 1,518,110 (50.6 bb)
Hero (BB): 701,064 (23.4 bb)
MP1: 155,609 (5.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K 9
3 folds, CO raises to 60,000, 2 folds, Hero calls 30,000

Flop: (161,250) A K A (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets 120,000, Hero calls 120,000

Turn: (401,250) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets 210,000, Hero calls 210,000

River: (821,250) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets 150,000, Hero folds

I think I would fold on the turn.

Though a small sample, villain's stats are nitty from a raising perspective and his postflop aggression supports him raising a tight range (he raises good hands and drives those hands postflop).

So when he raises pre (first time from CO) and then fires 2 bullets on AAKx, what are you beating? His range is going to be heavily weighted towards AQ/AJ/AT/KQ. Would he fire 2 bullets with 88-QQ on that board after you call his bet on that flop?

Yeah , I never though it that way...

I assumed he was like a maniac making people fold just by pure aggression but what you say makes sense ; in fact I almost folded turn and what made me to call one more street was my miscarried thought about his high % turn aggression

This would probably be accurate if he was running 23/23 with those postflop stats, not 23/7. When a player open raises the PFR is what matters, not the VPIP.

Not really sure what the CO is doing in this hand. I tend to think this is a flop he should be checking back his entire range and that flop bet size is really big. Why he doesn't shove the river is a bit odd too. You had about 311k left and the river pot size is over 800k.

As played I'm folding to the turn bet. I wouldn't even bother with the pot odds on the river. He's so polarized but if he were bluffing I'd expect him to put you all in. If this is a value bet bluff then he's a wizard. I'd lean towards his bet is for value and he's trying to get a crying call from a weaker ace or an unbelieving Kx.

Shove or fold pre IMO. Probably fold because this dude is running a 7 PFR %. If you know he opens much wider from a steal spot though, go for it. Defending OOP here w/ a barely 25% hand vs a range that has us dominated in a short stack scenario, sucks.

You may actually be correct here about his high turn aggression but then 1) why not shove on the turn if you think your ahead and 2) what changes on the river? The 7 doesn't change anything so if you called the turn thinking your ahead and that he was double barrel bluffing then you should be jamming the rest on the river. Go with your reads and if your beat your beat.

Also on the river your looking at betting 150k to win 1.1 mil in chips so you need to be ahead here about 13% of the time. I think jamming the river might be ok just on those odds alone. He could show up with QQ or JJ and had turned his hand into a bluff.

The small river bet unnerved me. I thought he would either check behind or just shoot a big bluff (remember , I thought dude was a kind of maniac) ; that little river bet looks clearly as a value bet and not coherent with the image I have on him

Why continue OTF? I don't get it.

Call the river sometimes.

In the heat of the moment I kinda understand call otf..past that anything but fold is only waste of chips..sure there will be a time where you call all the way and he shows JQ or some mid/small pair or something..but most of the time fold otf is best imo.

OP said villain is aggro post flop. I'm unsure why people think we should ever fold this flop...

7 pfr and first time opening from CO in 60 hands, so his range is pretty narrow and smashes that flop. But I would still call to see if he fires again.

23/7 is not an aggressive archetype. I'd still not fold to this albeit large flop bet if I'm flatting K9s pre for some reason, but OPs characterization of villain as "very aggro stats on every street" is probably off the mark, so folding turn/river are both viable, as V should have very few busted draws & we have no reason to think they're 2.5 barreling w/ even the small # of KQhh, QJhh, etc.

Then what bluffs do you think villain has here? We can't have AK we likely don't have AQo/AJs etc so he can basically discount most of our aces since we should be 3b a portion of them pre, we have a pair and don't block backdoor stuff. OP clearly has a HUD and likely said he's aggro given hud stats. Flatting pre seems perfectly fine given blind sizes and our hand.

Any aggression-by-street stats OP is referencing mean so little after 60 hands. It could literally be an aberration in which he's raising tight, hitting good boards, & barreling hard for value. The only thing reliable IMO is that this guy has a 16 point gap between their VPIP/PFR -- aka weak/passive.

So like I said, if I'm being generous, maybe he's barreling multiple streets w/ turned hearts, etc. but I don't think he's bluff heavy post or pre, hence why I think calling pre is just bleeding chips & often leads to spew vs a strong/narrow range oop w/ an already dwindling stack in a shallow pot (aka benefits villains range). Our stack size is good for 3b & opening in LP ourselves -- it's not great for flatting & "playing poker" OOP.

Also, you're giving this guy all kinds of hand reading capabilities that we shouldn't just give them by default.

We are certainly overfolding if we fold pre with >4-1 pot odds - we don't have to spew post-flop. I think we should call flop although clearly not excited about it, but let go on the turn. A basically passive player may well c bet with hands that missed but is unlikely to keep going on the turn with worse, esp at this stage of the tourney.

Yeah, we're overfolding vs a 23/7 -- and? That's certainly the proper exploit vs a guy opening maybe AJ/KQ/77+/JTs+ in a low SPR spot where villain's hot/cold equity edge + position is super relevant.

Call flop fold turn

i loled pretty hard on fold pre

It's not an exploit it's a mistake.

we can't really assume that 23/7 means V is opening top 7% ( esp when only 60 hands) but even if he was we have plenty of equity to call - and stat's don't suggest a great poker player which makes it more appetizing.

We can't just call flop and fold turn, if we call flop we should be calling the turn as well since no card should really change the winner from the flop. There's an excellent chance that this player can be bluffing here, but I'd personally preserve the stack and wait, those nitty stats just wreak of an A here, and is either barreling with air or had you from the beginning.

this is just wrong

When we call the flop and villain bets a blank turn, that changes his range, and thus our equity, so sure we can call flop and fold turn, and we likely should.

Call me a nit but villain's sizing OTF is abso-borkin' atrocious. He bets 120k into 160k on AKA rainbow LOL YOLOoOO

Honestly, I can't fault anyone for taking the call OTF + fold OTT line and I may do that in-game. But I guess me and this person ^^ (quoted) are the only ones who'd just fold flop? 23/7 - i mean his RFI should be low so yeah...?

As played, fold riv - there's at 2% he's just bluffing, but honestly he's gotta be value targeting us. Our range is pretty face up.