PokerStars - 3000/6000 Ante 600 NL - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BB: 152,656 (VPIP: 32.73, PFR: 16.16, 3Bet Preflop: 8.82, Hands: 123)
Hero (SB): 117,344
2 players post ante of 600,
Hero posts SB 3,000,
BB posts BB 6,000
Pre Flop: (pot: 10,200) Hero has T
7
Hero calls 3,000,
BB checks
Flop: (13,200, 2 players) 7
8
8
BB checks,
Hero bets 9,000,
BB calls 9,000
Turn: (31,200, 2 players) A
BB checks,
Hero checks
River: (31,200, 2 players) 3
BB bets 15,600,
Hero ??
I seldom do combo work like this so i want to check that I have done it right and see if hero calling in this spot is good/bad
So from a combinations perceptive i figure the hands that beat me are:
Any eight apart from 88 because he didn't raise pre - 96 combos
Any ace below A9 because he didn't raise pre - 128 combos
Any two heats excluding A9s+ and KJs+ because he didn't raise pre - 60 combos
Totaling 284 combos that beat me
He bets half pot, so i am getting 3-1 meaning i need to be good 2% of the time, so that means if I can beat 25% of 284 combos which is 78 then its a break even call right?
I figure he could have the following bluffs - J9s+, T9s, 65s, 54s, J9o+, T9o, 65o which accounts for 68 combos but if we add 54o then its 80 combos but of course we cannot expect him to call the flop and bet the river with that combo
All in all it seems like a close spot right?